Social network’s data analysis is overrated

When you start to be interested about social media, you are suddenly overwhelmed by gurus and service providers that provide you with heaps of data. And also promises to enhance dramatically traffic on your site and earn big money!

best time of day for posting
best time of day for posting (over-analysis)

When should one post a blog to optimize its impact? What words should be used to optimize visibility? At what time in the day (!) should something get published? Where should which field be on the front page, in which color, to increase the probability of a click?. And there they go in huge graphical analysis and lengthy discussions.

Funny thing is, most of the examples of outstanding successes of books, blogs or social network references did not start doing all this. They just started delivering great contents and engaged tightly with a group of followers. They continued delivering consistently, over time. Eventually sometime they became mainstream, as the group of followers increased.

Can one really manipulate success? Short term maybe. If you want to build a long term brand, should it be your own or your organization’s, dont’ really bother. Your site, blog needs to be good, not crappy, but do not spend time and energy trying to over-optimize it. Spend instead time delivering great contents and value. Engage emotionally with your followers, give them value.

Change their lives.

It does not matter if you blog at 2am to achieve that.

 

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Connect to needy individuals in developing countries and lend them money – the power of the Fourth Revolution

Fancy connecting and supporting personally a person with a small project that would take him or her out of misery in the remotest developing country?

Micro-finance is a concept which brought Mohamad Yunus a Nobel Prize. The concept is simple: in developing countries, banks will not lend small amounts to needy people who would just need a few dollars to setup their business or invest in something valuable.

Micro-finance concentrates on micro-loans: a few dozen dollars, a hundred at the most. Often loaned to women, repayment rates are astonishing – generally more than 99%.

Kiva.org logo
Kiva.org logo

That’s where the Fourth Revolution comes in. Non-profits like Kiva.org allow you to extend micro-loans to needy but industrious people in developing countries.

OK, a lot of non profits are doing that.

Yes, but – on Kiva.org you choose who you are lending to!!

Using Kiva’s web site, you can read about local entrepreneurs all over the world and issue your own micro-loan to the ones you are impressed by. So far, Kiva has facilitated 300,000+ loans in 200+ coun­tries for a total of $200+ million dollars that has changed hands—and the repayment rate is an amazing 98.79%. Keep an eye on them, because they represent the fu­ture of charity and micro-lending. Their total loans (number and value) have grown almost tenfold in 4 years.

At the click of a mouse you can directly give a loan to someone, participate in micro-finance. Visit Kiva.org for more information!

Who says the Fourth Revolution does not connect people across the world?

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The mystery of value measurement in the Collaborative Age

One of the biggest issues tackled in the Fourth Revolution book is how to measure value in the Collaborative Age.

Accounting image
Accounting, the Industrial Age value measurement system

Conventional accounting, a practice of the Industrial Age, cannot measure effectively the value creation of loose collaborative networks, of data management and sharing, of the Long Tail.

It gives a much too restrictive view of Value.

It considers people as expenses and inventory as an asset. We know today that’s quite the contrary – yet we still use conventional accounting as a habit.

So, with what should accounting be replaced? Should it be a development of accounting or a total revamp of a value creation system?

How can we estimate the value of Facebook and Google? Their financial results (accounting) probably only measure a very small proportion of the value they create to the world!

Any suggestions?

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Open data hacking: Fourth Revolution value creation in action!

Just stumbled upon a great example of Fourth Revolution value creation through the hacking of open data by… the public, giving new meanings, creating debate and understanding

Read this blog post by David Eaves: Open Source Data Journalism – Happening now at Buzz Data..

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Emotional attachment is what makes products valuable

Exactly as the value chain of human activities goes from manual work to intellectual work (processing) to emotional work, so does the value chain of products.

iPhone vs normal phone
iPhone vs normal phone

Successful products today are those that bring us to develop an emotional attachment. Product differentiation based only on performance is boring. That is, unless the possession of a highly powered shiny item makes us feel the emotion of ego’s satisfaction!

So why is the iPhone so successful, and at the same time so highly priced? Because it provokes a deep emotional attachment to its content through music and other features, because it is the do-it-all solution solver. The phone on the right does not generate any emotional attachment. It is a commodity. We just want the cheapest.

If you want your product to be successful, there is only one way: create an emotional attachment. When do you review your current products, or what you are doing in the office, in that light?

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Solutions to the national debt crisis 2/2: reviewing our tax base

Our current tax base will soon be obsolete. It needs to be replaced by taxation of our new collaborative capabilities.

During the Agricultural Age, tax was based on a share of the crops. When the Third Revolution came – which would eventually lead to the Industrial Revolution, a new value system was created that soon dwarfed Agricultural value: Industry. The governments which had relied since centuries on agricultural tax became weaker and weaker. They had to get money lent to them by the new ‘bourgeois’, who created value by trade or industry. The system became less and less stable as the traditional governing elite became relatively poorer and poorer, as industrial value increased orders of magnitude above agricultural value.

Today in developed countries, agriculture represents 2 to 3% of the GDP. Even if it was taxed entirely it would not represent much of the 30-50% which is swallowed by taxes and social security payments!

Today, we are again in the same situation. Our tax system is mostly based on Industrial Age value. A new value production system has been created with the Fourth Revolution that is expanding and that will eventually dwarf the Industrial Age value. The only way to get out of this conundrum is to change our tax base to effectively tax the Collaborative Age value! This is going to be difficult immediately because our accounting systems which date from the Industrial Age do not account for it.

The Agricultural Age example also reminds us that tax is not necessarily only money, it can also be in kind, including the time of people doing certain activities for the public good.

The solution is thus not to increase tax the Industrial Age way. It is to create new ways of deriving a share of the tremendous value created by collaboration for the public good. Because collaborative value is not linked to geography, countries will find it difficult to create such new taxes on their own. The solution needs to be internationally agreed.  But that is the only possible way forward to avoid our governments to become relatively poorer and poorer.

The challenge is huge but so important for the stability of our societies that it should be taken upfront. Do you have ideas on the matter?

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Solutions to the national debt crisis 1/2: reviewing our social contract

We won’t solve the national debt crisis following the same mindset we have currently. This mindset, this logic we have inherited from the Industrial Age.

Solving the national debt crisis will necessarily require thinking outside the box, outside the usual operation of our social institutions. New institutions will need to be created, current institutions will become obsolete. The change that is required is a rupture change.

The balance of national accounts is a balance between income and expenses of our collective institutions (government, social security, etc). It requires first to understand what collective institutions we need and want – the basis of our social contract. Over time most developed countries have evolved collective institutions that provide a significant protection to individuals (health, minimum social support, justice), protection of society as a whole (military, police), implementation and building collective infrastructure (roads, etc),and a large number of other important services related to information management and statistics.

These national institutions are generally governmental and not submitted to competition. They don’t have to adapt to the new conditions of the world as quickly and thoroughly as other organizations.

In many instance those collective protection institutions have based their intervention on a standard career path and value production environment – mandatory age for retirement, structure of health insurance based on salaried employment, etc.

As the Fourth Revolution unfolds with more diverse lives, some developing internationally, these approaches will prove increasingly obsolete.

Yet it remains important to provide a minimum social protection to anyone should life be unkind. This is typically provided in the form of an insurance, averaging the risk over a large number of people and instances.

The first way to address the debt crisis is thus to ask again what core needs our social institutions should address. Protection needs to be made personal, not collective, because our lives will be more diverse – that is a significant change. Creating the right infrastructure is key to the economical development, requires long term funding beyond the normal horizon of private investors – public implication is needed. Etc.

The second way to address the debt crisis is to examine whether submitting the institutions that deliver these services to competition could not deliver a more sustainable service. Indeed the fact that information management is now available to anyone, and not just reserved to expensive bureaucracy as it was a few decades ago, is a key change brought by the Fourth Revolution. Most traditionally public functions can now be delivered reliably by private organizations. Why hesitate?

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The national debt crisis is a normal consequence of the Fourth Revolution

No wonder the developed world suffers of a national debt crisis: with the Fourth Revolution spreading, the value production systems shifts. Our traditional government funding and operation are obsolete. As well as the traditional remediation solutions.

National Debt Crisis
The national debt crisis becomes unsustainable

Because tax systems are based on an Industrial Age view of the value production system, taxes necessarily shrink relative to the overall economy.

Because social support systems and government operation are based on Industrial Age view of career, retirement, social support, scope of responsibility of government, expenses continue to be huge, and to increase.

With the Fourth Revolution, instant transmittal of information and funds, and globalization, gone is the golden age of the Industrial Age where governments could resolve this dilemma by creating more money, devaluating currencies, playing with trade barriers.

The debt crisis is a direct consequence of the fact that our collective social systems are still operating under the framework of the Industrial Age while the world is already in the Fourth Revolution.

For governments, to continue along the sames lines as before will at best delay the inevitable. But that is what all governments do right now! We need to take the grasp of the fundamental shift of our societies. A Revolution in our social contract is needed. Now.

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Ideas multiplication – by George Bernard Shaw

We speak a lot about creativity and the fact that creativity happens when two unrelated ideas meet.

Two green apples
Two green apples of creativity

I like that quote from George Bernard Shaw:
If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchange apples then you and I will still each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange these ideas, then each of us will have two ideas

Think about it. A century ago ideas met at the rate of a man on a horse. Today ideas meet millions or billions times more often in the same timespan. The Fourth Revolution is there. Ineluctable.

Go out and encounter new ideas! And create new ones! And share…

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The power of the fable and telling stories

I just read ‘Our Iceberg is Melting’, a short fable by John Kotter and Holger Rathgeber (a name which coincidentally in German, means advice-giver!).


John Kotter is a change guru that has written a bunch of serious business books about Change. Yet is seems that his ideas spread more rapidly and effectively in the form of a short fable with large illustrations about a bunch of penguins living on an iceberg.

Now comes the difficult question: what is the best, having the greatest idea backed by 20 years of careful research and put down in a series of long serious books, or simplified and put down in a nice attractive simple book counting a memorable story, that can be read in one hour?

The best answer is certainly – both. But if you can’t do both then certainly the fable is the best medium to get your idea across. Marketing is key to get the interest. Then only the depth of your understanding will come to light when people will start asking questions.

It is amazing how a fable can be a wonderful educational and marketing tool. Our ancestors new about the educational. Why don’t we use it more for marketing our ideas?

When do you start counting stories around?

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Social networks dynamics like you have never seen them

The New-York Times research lab is developing an application that allows to visualize the dynamics of social networks. How some people serve as linchpins for the diffusion of information.

Have a look at

http://www.nytlabs.com/projects/cascade.html

there is a video that shows better than any words how that works. It is astounding. The information diffusion cascade is shown in real time. You can understand how it spreads (or not). No doubt we are now in the midst of the Fourth Revolution!

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Participate to worldwide competitions to leverage the collective cognitive capability!

Have you heard of kaggle.com?

It is a site to run workdwide competitions on data mining – how to use data to predict trends and other useful results.

For example, it has run competitions about predicting whether people will attend hospital next year based on their current medical history; how the condition of HIV infected people will evolve based on a limited set of current physiological data. Ford has posted a challenge to help devise an algorithm to decide if the driver is alert…

By leveraging the collective cognitive capabilities of humankind, clever solutions are found quickly that would have taken years and millions of dollars to develop. Winners get recognition by being invited to present their result – or can get 3,000,000$ by solving the problem of hospital admission prediction and thus anticipate the degradation of the condition of the patients.

Ready to participate to the Fourth Revolution? – put your brains at work for the best in one of these number-crunching competitions.

Right now you can participate in the Wikipedia prediction challenge – develop an algorithm to predict how many edits an editor will make in the next few months based on his contribution history – and beat years of Wikipedia internal data-crunching! Ready?

 

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