It shows how experiments are now following each other, more and more frequently, that allow small amounts of money to change hands, without the intermediary of a large organization (and its bureaucracy, risk-adversity, etc). Just because the Fourth Revolution provides us with unprecedented human interaction capability.
Will crowdfunding overtake the Industrial Age conventional financial institutions? For the moment it is rather complementary, a small scale solution to small scale problems that are overlooked by conventional institutions. Still, crowdfunding will become very important for many people. This is only the start!
Crowdfunding adds a layer of possibility on top of the existing institutions. That is what will happen with many of our usual institutions as the Fourth Revolution expands. Looking forward to the crowd-institutions!
“Don’t worry about people stealing an idea. If it’s original, you will have to ram it down their throats.”
This is a quote by Howard Aiken, and American scientist (1900-1973) who was very much involved in the computer and electronics field at its outset.
And, by experience, it is held to be true by all the players in front-edge products and companies.
It just means that if your idea is really original, people will just not believe in it. Not only that, but they will try to kill it and discourage you.
So don’t worry about the competition – at least if you pursue this visionary idea persistently. Your following will come. And when you will be successful, you will redefine the market.
An other meaning is that an idea is nothing without its execution. What’s really difficult is to put it in practice, implement, tweak, mature it – and to do it against the rest of the world. That’s where the value lies. Anybody can have fantastic ideas. Not so many will be able to implement them. It takes focus, time, patience and persistence.
The defining criteria of patents should not be any more that some kind of prototype has been produced, but whether it has been adopted by a large following. Nobody cares about an invention if it is not used, and it is not appropriate to have the inventor become rich because somebody else managed to use the idea to produce social value.
Let’s change intellectual property. Let’s make it social. Ultimately, that’s where value lies.
If you talk about the 4th revolution in your company of the Industrial Age (or at least try to explain it), I think most people would say “Yes, we’re a part of it! The company has its Twitter and Facebook accounts, we even post videos on Youtube!”.
I think that what we got then are two categories of companies and organizations.
what to do with social networks?
Companies of the first category only use the tools of the 4th revolution as if they were from the Industrial Age, like radio, television or newspapers: one-way communication (nowadays faster), no interaction and no collaboration (even at short-distance).
Companies of the second category are aware that the entire society is currently being redefined, and are slowly opening to this new world. 4th revolution tools are not considered as one-way communication tools, and the first fruits of the collaboration and interaction are visible. However, these tools are often controlled by very few management people, and their use doesn’t means that the company is as open-minded as it seems to be when you watch it from outside.
Have you tried to explain the 4th revolution concepts to colleagues in your company of the Industrial Age?
I’ve tried. And I’ve realized that 4th revolution concepts are not so easy to explain, and can be misunderstood or misinterpreted very easily. I’m sure there are many companies and people who really want to thrive through the 4th revolution, but maybe they are thinking in the wrong way.
How to avoid the illusion of being part of the 4th revolution? How to help people and companies to be a part of it?
Have you read lately about “patent trolls” (companies that make their living by doing nothing, just sitting on a few juicy patents)? Or the battles between Apple and Samsung, Google and Microsoft, to win ownership of treasure troves of patents, avoid long and costly legal battles about patent rights… Or the billions of dollars earned by lawyers in the field of patents in the gigantic battles that are ongoing?
In the Fourth Revolution Book, we relate how similar situations arose at the onset of revolutionary inventions, like how the patent for automobile was unduly exploited by Mr Selden who made a living by selling expensive licenses for building automobiles. That, until a certain Mr Ford just went ahead and filed lawsuit after lawsuit against him…
So, the current situation is not entirely new.
First, it confirms that something is happening that is revolutionary, in rupture with the usual slow improvement that is best suited for our intellectual property regime.
Still, it shows that the patent regime currently acts against public good, instead of acting in favor. Apple does not really need patents to be the largest market capitalization in the US. This time, the patents conundrum might become so problematic that a complete revamping of intellectual property might ensue. We can’t afford any more to give an exclusive right to an idea for 20 years in particular if this idea is vague or general. Resistance against changing the law will come primarily from lawyers, not consumers or companies. But change is inevitable. Because ideas are now produced collectively, and competitive advantage is based on speed of execution, quality of the product, and not any more on static defense of one’s position.
Which legislator will be bold enough to engage this much-needed change of the intellectual property regime? Shorten the timeframes, ensure that the patents are really specific, that the product described has really been produced, put some limits to the monopoly situation that ensues… such are the directions for a change.
Last week’s quiz was about the deep flaw of any kind of hourly analysis of social networks
The right answer was: because of cheap long distance communication, the entire world – all time zones – is potentially participating to our conversation.
So, time does not have any meaning any more, beyond our circle of friends living in the same time zone.
Based in Asia, I am participating to conversations in Europe and in America. You read this blog and you are most probably more than 5,000 km away.
Time does not matter any more. The sun never sets on our conversations.
Welcome to the Fourth Revolution!
Congrats to Olivier Lareynie for his answer – I am looking for his guest post!
Referring to the graph shown in the previous post about the hourly re-tweeting, such an analysis is fundamentally flawed, just because of the fundamental assumptions of the Fourth Revolution.
Faithful follower of the Fourth Revolution blog, I give out one guest post in the blog for you – yes, you get to write a post yourself – if you find the right answer withing the next week!
When you start to be interested about social media, you are suddenly overwhelmed by gurus and service providers that provide you with heaps of data. And also promises to enhance dramatically traffic on your site and earn big money!
best time of day for posting (over-analysis)
When should one post a blog to optimize its impact? What words should be used to optimize visibility? At what time in the day (!) should something get published? Where should which field be on the front page, in which color, to increase the probability of a click?. And there they go in huge graphical analysis and lengthy discussions.
Funny thing is, most of the examples of outstanding successes of books, blogs or social network references did not start doing all this. They just started delivering great contents and engaged tightly with a group of followers. They continued delivering consistently, over time. Eventually sometime they became mainstream, as the group of followers increased.
Can one really manipulate success? Short term maybe. If you want to build a long term brand, should it be your own or your organization’s, dont’ really bother. Your site, blog needs to be good, not crappy, but do not spend time and energy trying to over-optimize it. Spend instead time delivering great contents and value. Engage emotionally with your followers, give them value.
Change their lives.
It does not matter if you blog at 2am to achieve that.
The Fourth Revolution changes dramatically the military – for a long time the most hierarchical organization.
The military is hierarchical because in the midst of dangerous action there is not time for discussion and the leaders need to be visibly identifiable.
Yet today the military need to become smart in the way they seek to achieve their objectives. Information is key today, and leveraging Collaborative tools is a way to better identify important information. Leveraging on the collaboration of the troops for data acquisition and intelligence is just a way to leverage on the Fourth Revolution.
This interesting speech of General McChrystal on TED about leadership shows clearly the contradictions the military face today between their traditional hierarchical model and the emergence of the Fourth Revolution.
And recently, the USA published a new doctrine about cyberwarfare, getting ready for cyber wars.
The military forces of the Collaborative Age will be organized and operate very differently. And the military will certainly even change deeply as an institution. Are the military ready for such a change? Are they aware of the potential of changing the way they run intelligence and active missions?
Fancy connecting and supporting personally a person with a small project that would take him or her out of misery in the remotest developing country?
Micro-finance is a concept which brought Mohamad Yunus a Nobel Prize. The concept is simple: in developing countries, banks will not lend small amounts to needy people who would just need a few dollars to setup their business or invest in something valuable.
Micro-finance concentrates on micro-loans: a few dozen dollars, a hundred at the most. Often loaned to women, repayment rates are astonishing – generally more than 99%.
Kiva.org logo
That’s where the Fourth Revolution comes in. Non-profits like Kiva.org allow you to extend micro-loans to needy but industrious people in developing countries.
OK, a lot of non profits are doing that.
Yes, but – on Kiva.org you choose who you are lending to!!
Using Kiva’s web site, you can read about local entrepreneurs all over the world and issue your own micro-loan to the ones you are impressed by. So far, Kiva has facilitated 300,000+ loans in 200+ countries for a total of $200+ million dollars that has changed hands—and the repayment rate is an amazing 98.79%. Keep an eye on them, because they represent the future of charity and micro-lending. Their total loans (number and value) have grown almost tenfold in 4 years.
At the click of a mouse you can directly give a loan to someone, participate in micro-finance. Visit Kiva.org for more information!
Who says the Fourth Revolution does not connect people across the world?
One of the biggest issues tackled in the Fourth Revolution book is how to measure value in the Collaborative Age.
Accounting, the Industrial Age value measurement system
Conventional accounting, a practice of the Industrial Age, cannot measure effectively the value creation of loose collaborative networks, of data management and sharing, of the Long Tail.
It gives a much too restrictive view of Value.
It considers people as expenses and inventory as an asset. We know today that’s quite the contrary – yet we still use conventional accounting as a habit.
So, with what should accounting be replaced? Should it be a development of accounting or a total revamp of a value creation system?
How can we estimate the value of Facebook and Google? Their financial results (accounting) probably only measure a very small proportion of the value they create to the world!
Cities developed dramatically during the Industrial Age. Cities developed around factories (a large number of workers had to live nearby). Cities were justified by scarce and slow communication capabilities (for information and for people). Significant value was created in cities, as the rubbing of diverse population created a fertile ground for creativity. Costs of living in cities rose in proportion to the value that was created there. Because of poor planning, some cities became congested beyond the bearable.
picture of crowded city
Many parameters that made cities indispensable in the Industrial Age are disappearing today. And, indeed, there is a tendency for affluent, highly qualified people to move back to the countryside, with its low cost, high quality of living. They use their internet connection to compensate distance and maintain their network.
Are cities doomed? It is not sure as they are still an extremely effective way of living in terms of resource utilization (land, energy…), as long as they are properly planned and maintained. And face-to-face interaction, the creation of core teams, is still very important in the Collaborative Age; it will remain.
Cities will probably stay but mutate into different animals. They will probably evolve into more sustainable forms where networks of public transportation will irrigate cradles of creativity. The borders with the countryside will blur. And they will be more open, networked.
Lately the pressure increases dramatically for companies to setup internal social networks.
Two main reasons for that:
a lot of people can now access internet on their mobile, so that they can access Facebook and the like without being bothered by the futile attempts by companies to block access
large commercial social networks become more pushy to propose solutions to companies (whether they like it or not), leveraging on the fact that many employees are on their network
Still, corporations continue to resist (read again my blog post on why organizations do resist to social networks). Those that will continue for too long will be overtaken by those that will understand that social networks can unleash unprecedented value.
Stop resisting. Go for it. Start small and learn. And create the value you deserve.
That’s called crowdfunding.
