complexity | The Fourth Revolution Blog

How to Resist Patent Trolls (Video)

We have written several times on this blog on the patent troll phenomenon, these entities trying to make money by owning widely applicable patents and attacking normal companies for wrongdoing (links below).

This excellent TED video gives an excellent explanation of the phenomenon and what you should do if it happens to you.

It also reminds a great lesson of what to do when you are taken hostage by someone. Concentrate on your objective and don’t let yourself be impressed.

Follow this link if you can’t see the video.

Previous posts on patent trolls:

Hat tip to Tim Berry for the link

Hope is not a strategy. And Uncertainty is your best friend.

I stumbled upon this statement as headers in a post by James Altucher about what he learned being a trader. As a trader and faced continuously by uncertainty and impossibility to predict the future, he learnt some basic wisdom that should help us in today’s even more uncertain environment.

Hope is not a strategy: hoping that something will unfold positively in the future, without any underlying indication, is not very useful. It is counterproductive because you won’t be taking any action. Hope is passive.

Uncertainty is your best friend: it might be a bit rock-n-roll but only thanks to uncertainty can we hope to create our space in the world. If everything was certain, our fate would be decided and why would we do any effort? How could we expect to trace our own way? It is up to those who know how to thrive in uncertainty to create change in the world and to create success for themselves.

Drop passive hope and work on better taking advantage of uncertainty. These are key skills in the world today. When do you start?

Why are we susceptible to the “Good Old Days” fallacy?

Everybody at one time or the other will mention the “Good Ol’ Days”. It seems that our past is such a great place to have been… compared to the present or the future

This psychological effect is due to hindsight. “It is the future that frighten us, not the past. Even if it has not been easy, it always seems sweet because certain.” explains Dan Gardner in ‘Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail – and Why We Believe Them Anyway‘. He continues, “The profound perceptual distortion created by hindsight bias can make almost anyone nostalgic for the good old days“.

Even people who had to live through rough times in their youths, for example during the Great Recession of the 1930’s and the following World War, will tend to remember the past with affection.

“This illusion is pervasive and yet it is seldom recognized. In books, articles, blogs and broadcasts, we call our time the ‘age of uncertainty‘, believing that there is something uniquely uncertain about this moment. But the phrase ‘age of uncertainty‘ which has appeared in the New York Times 5,720 times, made its debut in 1924!”

Uncertainty is scary. We tend to fall in the trap of the security of hindsight. Let us not do that, and let’s lean decidedly into the Fourth Revolution.

Why We Should Strive for Complex, but not for Complicated

I loved this Gapingvoid cartoon by Hugh McLeod. Remember first why Complex is not the same as Complicated.

According to him,

Complex is intrinsic. Something is complex if it involves a lot of moving parts, even at its most basic.

Complicated is extrinsic. Something is made complicated by external factors, made complicated by stuff that’s non-essential.

Even the most simple of lives are complex… so much that can go wrong, so much needing taken care of. That doesn’t give one an excuse to make things more complicated than they need be. In fact, the opposite is true, especially in business.

Add to this that in a complex world, good (and bad) surprises and discontinuities can appear that can be exploited as opportunities.

So, when do you ditch Complication for Complexity in your life?

Do You Have the Courage of Persistence?

In the post “What’s Your Brand of Courage“, Danny Iny insists upon the different brands of courage: either the fiery exuberant type, or the day-to-day persistent type.

Which one is the most effective? Except in a few occasion (which should not be underestimated as sometimes lives can be deeply changed in those rare events), it is probably the persistence courage that is probably the most important to achieve our goals.

Courage does not always roar — Will YOU try again tomorrow?

This quote by Mary Anne Radmacher that Danny Iny’s refers to made a great impression on me. Courage is indeed often the quiet voice at the end of the day saying “I will try again tomorrow“. It is courage against complacency, the courage to build up something stone after stone, step after step.

Those of us that show this courage of persistence are possibly more courageous overall than those heroes society shows us on film, books or TV. It’s less glamour, but it’s what changes the world.

Remember. When you’re persistent, you show great courage. Be proud!

Why Reserves are Key to Face Uncertainty

It is a well known fact in military command that Reserves are the key to success in the uncertain world of battle. As exposed by General Vincent Desportes in his book “Decider dans l’Incertitude” (in French), an excellent book about decision-making in uncertain conditions, reserves are the main tool to manage uncertainty.

empty fuel gauge — How often do you run without reserves? Is that wise?

The higher the uncertainty, the more courage the commanding officer must have in increasing the size of its reserves. According to Churchill, engagement of the reserve resources is indeed the utmost responsibility of the one in command (and it often makes the decision in battle).

Jim Collins and Morten Hansen, in the book “Great by Choice“, come to the same conclusion: those organizations that thrive on the long term have a far more conservative view on balance sheet and establishment of financial reserves. They don’t necessarily seek the just-in-time; they don’t over-borrow; they don’t extend themselves too thin, even if they find an opportunity to do so. They make sure they are resilient to uncertainty.

Individually and in our organizations, reserves are important. Even if it means some loss of efficiency, they can make the decision when it comes to the realization of specific, unpredictable situations. Not to mention that reserves gives peace of mind when facing the usual ups and downs. Having some reserves is an important approach I also use in my small start-up even in growth mode.

What about you? Do you have enough reserves to face uncertainty? What about your organization? What will you do about it?

Why Chronic Inconsistency is the Signature of Mediocrity

“The signature of mediocrity is not an unwillingness to change, the signature of mediocrity is chronic inconsistency” – quote from the book “Great by Choice” by Jim Collins and Morten Hansen. In this book, the authors explore what makes start-ups successful or just about mediocre, but that probably applies to us as well to us individuals as to organizations.

get rich quick ad — Attractive ways to make you believe you’ll get rich quick…Who do you think will actually get rich?

This view is a bit surprising, but upon closer examination it is so true. It is so easy to give up to the latest attractive fad and to change focus so often that nothing important really gets done! According to the authors, successful organizations are successful because they stick to a rigorous discipline day-in and day-out, whatever the latest trend and event. Only rarely do they adapt their way of working to deep seated trends.

Lack of focus is the plague of many people and organizations I know. The search for the miracle solution pervades our society – it is enough to look at all these get-rich-quick solutions to which so many must succumb to! Yet without continued focus on a very limited number of initiatives, nothing decisive will get done.

Being consistent is boring. It’s long winded. It’s not attractive and remarkable at first. Yet it is the only way to become an overnight sensation… 10 years after you started.

Be boringly consistent in the short term to become remarkable on the long term. Spread your focus inconsistently, enjoy thrill on the short term and you’ll remain mediocre on the long term.

Which one do you choose?

Why it is ever more difficult to identify actionable information

The Fourth Revolution comes with a new challenge for most of us: we have much more information to our fingertips or in our phone than ever before – and potentially, too much information, a noise that hides what might really be important.

We have maps, public transportation schedules, the latest news and rumors from all over the world in our pockets. We can apprehend the world with a detail never achieved before. Yet the same old problem still lingers: how can we really identify what is important for us and for what we intend to achieve?

What is really difficult is to extract the useful information. Data might be available but because connections don’t happen, it is not transformed in useful information (for example after 9-11, it was ascertained that federal agencies in the US collectively had enough data to understand what was being prepared, but failed to connect the pieces). Even more annoying, because there is ever more data available, there are ever more spurious correlations – and the possibility of wrong decisions and innocent people being impacted.

We all reach the limits of what we can physically receive, process and transmit (whereas in the past that was only limited to a few individuals at the top of organizations).

While some believe that thanks to new technology, we are better informed in our decisions, it might not be true. Because the background noise intensity has grown so much, it has become harder to discern the important information. It also sometimes give the wrong impression of being able to understand what is happening.

How are you discerning important information, the information at the basis of your action?

How to Cut Through Complexity: Using Compelling Purpose

Cutting through complexity and simplifying complexity is a key value proposition for organizations and individuals. That’s why good consulting or coaching is about simplifying complexity.

One of the most elegant ways of achieving this result is to find the organization’s or individual’s purpose, and let them align their actions and issues with their purpose. If the purpose is strong and compelling enough, the rest will be certainly simplified:

what’s not a priority will be easily abandoned in favor of what’s important
what’s a priority will be clear, compel action-taking and destroy all sorts of procrastination.

Are you doubting it? Well, remember the last time you were madly in love with someone. It was a purpose. Didn’t your life suddenly appear simple, and wasn’t action-taking made easier? Didn’t you do things you would never have dreamed of trying before?

It all comes down to the compelling factor. To passion. If, when you think about your purpose, you don’t feel emotion, it’s not your real purpose.

Find your real compelling purpose. It will simplify your life.

Why “Crisis” is a Subjective Concept You Need to Overcome

A crisis is “any event that is, or expected to lead to, an unstable and dangerous situation affecting an individual, group, community, or whole society” (Wikipedia).

cannons fortress — Preparing for the crisis

Actually a crisis is often felt as such for people who have something to lose. For people that have something to gain from the situation, it is often called “opportunity”. It is the same event though. It’s just the way we look at it.

An event that is felt as a crisis leads to all sorts of defensive measures. It is important to isolate oneself and one’s belongings and entitlements from a threat that is sometimes difficult to understand. One hides behind walls and prepares cannons to respond to the enemy. It is a very sedentary reaction.

Nomads with a light luggage will be more on the side of the opportunity. They will see a crisis as a possibility for change, for the better or worst.

Crisis is a subjective word. It all depends how you feel threatened and how you respond to the situation. Be on the side of those that take changes for opportunities!

Why, even in a Complex World, you Need to Head Towards your Purpose!

In an ever more complex world where many events become difficult to predict, our tendency would be to follow the flow, let the events drive us.

That’s not how we’ll reach greatness. An acute observer of companies taking decisions in complex environments, Jim Collins, the famous author of Good to Great and his latest book Great by Choice, states:

“Most people start with the outside world and try to figure out, how can we adapt to it? Greatness doesn’t happen that way. It starts with an internal drive. And there is really a key question with big decisions: What are your core values and your real aspirations?”

sailing in storm — While the storm might bring you astray from the route, you sure still know where you want to go!

It is vital to have a direction when it comes to taking decisions, even in a complex world. Personal Purpose is essential, aligned with your core values and true aspirations. And actually, Jim Collin’s research shows that the most successful companies are those that maintain their heading the most consistently. Like the captain of a ship in the midst of a storm, he can accommodate temporary changes of direction to minimize the effect of wind and waves, but still knows where his goal lies.

Be agile in responding to events. But keep your eye fixed on where you want to go, and come back to your initial heading! Only then, of course, will you be able to reach it!

Quotes are from the foreword to the book The Greatest Business Decisions of All Times by Fortune Magazine editors

Why We Need to Stop the Race for Complication

“Simplicity has been difficult to implement in modern life because it is against the spirit of a certain brand of people who seek sophistication so that they can justify their profession” – Nicholas Taleb in his highly recommended new book, Antifragile.

During my time as a civil servant I could not stop wondering (and admiring) how bureaucrats were constantly complicating rules and processes “to better take into account individual situations and avoid threshold effects”. Bureaucrats cannot imagine anything different than complicated systems and procedures. But what they did not realize is that real life is complex. And complication is not the same as complex! Their quest to manage the complex using even more complicated rules is doomed to fail. Yet they continue. Legal systems become increasingly bloated as they try to deal with all sorts of situation. This quest will be lost – nature will always be far more imaginative than the most imaginative bureaucrat.

Let’s stop this stupid quest for complication. The solution lies in simplicity. Because complex systems – real life – will react and adapt to simple messages and solutions. Because the cost of complication is far greater than its advantage. Let’s seek simplicity in all we do – and suddenly we’ll tame complexity.

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