How the Fourth Revolution dramatically increases humankind problem-solving ability

Fourth Revolution minded researchers use online games to solve difficult scientific problems by appealing to a much larger community of contributors.

The best example to date can be found in the article “gamers solve molecular puzzle that baffled scientists”.

Molecular configuration
Molecular configuration in FoldIt, an online game

By crowdsourcing the search for the best 3-D molecular configuration they were able to get the help and support from a large community. By making it like a game, they leveraged an emotional appeal to the effort. And they solved a previously unsolvable problem in only 10 days!

This example is particularly noteworthy because anyone – no need to have any knowledge in molecular physics – can play the game. But don’t believe it is an isolated case. Such competitions and game are spreading through all disciplines now, to leverage contribution from anywhere in the world.

What is always amazing, though, is that at the end, the number of really dedicated, passionate contributors is always very small – no more than a dozen or a few dozen. But because the tools attracts talent from around the world, the best suitable, available people are there. And from their kitchen, stay-at-home moms can contribute to the progress of science.

Also noteworthy in the article is how the final discovery built on top of the progress made by other members, and how the small community of dedicated hard-core members is deeply in conversation. The lone genius concept is definitely obsolete.

Welcome to social community-based science.

Welcome to the Fourth Revolution’s value and knowledge production system.

 

 

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How the Fourth Revolution impacts… our furniture!

We don’t really realize it, but the change of our habits is starting to deeply impact our furniture and how we use our physical space.

ikea furniture
ikea furniture: how will it change with the Fourth Revolution?

For example, Ikea has realized that people will need less and less bookshelves as we increasingly read e-books. So they are currently changing the shape and functionality of their bookshelves. More details on how the Fourth Revolution impacts Ikea furniture on that link.

Let’s generalize: the Fourth Revolution is starting to deeply impact our physical environment. The ubiquity of digital communication will deeply change our home environment, but also our usual urban environment (soon to come: urban furniture like bus stops that will communicate with your mobile phone, and advertisement postings that recognize you).

That is going to be destabilizing, there will be trials and errors. Still, one thing is sure: our physical environment is going to be very different in say – 20 years time. Take some pictures today to remember how it was like!

 

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Patrick Snow, bestselling author, reviews the Fourth Revolution book

“The Fourth Revolution is here. Such a deep transformation of the world has happened only three times before in Humankind’s 100,000 years’ history. Cheap, long distance, interactive communication unleashes the potential of Humankind. The Fourth Revolution will completely change our society, our organizations, our mindsets. In “The Fourth Revolution“, Jeremie Averous gives us the keys to this world transformation. A visionary guidebook to the world of today and tomorrow”

– Patrick Snow, International Best-Selling Author of Creating Your Own Destiny and The Affluent Entrepreneur

Patrick Snow, international bestselling author

Become a Fan of Patrick Snow: www.facebook.com/TheDeanOfDestinyand get your copy of Patrick Snow’s books today!

So, still don’t know what the Fourth Revolution is? Buy the Fourth Revolution book today and discover by yourself what it means to you, to us, to the world!

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The 2011 crisis reveals the Fourth Revolution in action

Look closely at this picture, taken in a street of a developed country, and so typical of today’s crisis:

2011 crisis queue
a 2011 crisis queue

What are people queuing for?

Maybe their bank went broke and they queue, hoping to save their last pennies.

Maybe they don’t have anything to eat, and they wait for some food to be given away?

Maybe they don’t have a job, and they wait patiently in front of the local job office?

Sorry – none of this. This is what they wait for:

got an iPhone!
the real 2011 crisis!

They wait for the new iPhone. They wait for the new communication tools which, behind the scenes, reshapes our world.

The Fourth Revolution is a Revolution. Institutions and society will change. Arab countries revolt, helped by modern communication technology. The foundations of our industry and financial system are shaken by the changes in the value chain. What was worthwhile yesterday will not be valued tomorrow; what was mainstream yesterday might be unethical tomorrow.

The world readjusts to the Fourth Revolution. Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” is happening right under our eyes. The foundations of the Industrial Revolution are shaken. Silently, behind the scenes, a new world is being shaped by visionaries, Steve Jobs and others. An other world. The Collaborative Age.

 

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How patent litigation cost half a trillion dollar inefficiency in the last 20 years!

Following the popular last blog post on patent trolls, I have found very interesting data and reviews on arstechnica.com.

The first paper is titled: “Study: patent trolls have cost innovators half a trillion dollars since 1990”.

Let’s repeat: the cost of defending innovation has been 500,000,000,000 (500  billion) dollars for publicly traded defendants since 1990! And it has increased over time to a staggering 83,000,000,000 (83 billion) dollars per year in the last four years!

And some researchers (Bessen and Meurer in their book Patent Failure) have shown that showed that, outside the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, the cost of patent litigation had already begun to exceed the rewards to inventors by the year 2000. Their new work suggests that the problem has gotten much, much worse since then. And that the intellectual property system is definitely broken. It is supposed to bring wealth to society; actually is stymies it!!

The book “Patent Failure” is reviewed here. I can’t help copying in this post – with all due respect to copyright – a stunning graph from the book (other industries refer to other than chemical and pharmaceutical – mainly software):

Patent litigation costs explosion
Patent litigation costs are now far higher than benefits

No doubt. The intellectual property system is deeply broken and needs to be mended. Otherwise innovation might just be scared away by a bunch of parasites.

And… what better illustration for the Fourth Revolution ignition?!?

No doubt – that’s an area where the Fourth Revolution is already there and deep institutional changes are required, and fast.

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A first functional aircraft entirely 3D-printed!

If you are a regular reader of this blog you certainly remember the blog post about 3D printing and how that will change the world – making manufacturing as we know it obsolete. Anything you need will be available through on-demand printing at the corner shop.

The first operational aircraft model printed in 3D
The first operational aircraft model printed in 3D

OK, we’re still a bit far away from that. Still, a milestone was reached during the summer 2011 with the first functional aircraft model that was entirely 3D printed, flying!

More on this feat following this link to a blog post detailing the event and looking at what Boeing is doing in terms of R&D for real commercial aircrafts.

This other blog post is also very englightening as to the current status of progress regarding 3D printing (includes a MUST SEE video from National Geographic).

Traditional engineering and manufacturing  (assembling bits and pieces) are going straight for obsolescence!

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Connect to needy individuals in developing countries and lend them money – the power of the Fourth Revolution

Fancy connecting and supporting personally a person with a small project that would take him or her out of misery in the remotest developing country?

Micro-finance is a concept which brought Mohamad Yunus a Nobel Prize. The concept is simple: in developing countries, banks will not lend small amounts to needy people who would just need a few dollars to setup their business or invest in something valuable.

Micro-finance concentrates on micro-loans: a few dozen dollars, a hundred at the most. Often loaned to women, repayment rates are astonishing – generally more than 99%.

Kiva.org logo
Kiva.org logo

That’s where the Fourth Revolution comes in. Non-profits like Kiva.org allow you to extend micro-loans to needy but industrious people in developing countries.

OK, a lot of non profits are doing that.

Yes, but – on Kiva.org you choose who you are lending to!!

Using Kiva’s web site, you can read about local entrepreneurs all over the world and issue your own micro-loan to the ones you are impressed by. So far, Kiva has facilitated 300,000+ loans in 200+ coun­tries for a total of $200+ million dollars that has changed hands—and the repayment rate is an amazing 98.79%. Keep an eye on them, because they represent the fu­ture of charity and micro-lending. Their total loans (number and value) have grown almost tenfold in 4 years.

At the click of a mouse you can directly give a loan to someone, participate in micro-finance. Visit Kiva.org for more information!

Who says the Fourth Revolution does not connect people across the world?

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Stop disseminating the image of the factory worker as a representation of the economy!

Right now there are a lot of articles and communication in the media about employment and unemployment. I’m really struck how this topic is presented.

picture of a factory worker
picture of a factory worker

Did you remark how much this communication is reinforcing the “Industrial Age” view of employment? And, be it on TV or in the press, the images and videos associated are always showing factory workers.

For example the enclosed picture is just extracted from the New York Times. It was a paper about the Italian economy. But – the Italian economy is never going to recover through more factory employment!!

Let’s stop it! Factory workers are now becoming a minority. It’s not where the value lies, nor where the good paying jobs lie!

The media is still reinforcing the Industrial Age mindset of jobs being factory employment jobs. When will the media show people in a service environment, when will the media show K.E.E.N. at work without a tag mentioning how these are strange animals?

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Solutions to the national debt crisis 1/2: reviewing our social contract

We won’t solve the national debt crisis following the same mindset we have currently. This mindset, this logic we have inherited from the Industrial Age.

Solving the national debt crisis will necessarily require thinking outside the box, outside the usual operation of our social institutions. New institutions will need to be created, current institutions will become obsolete. The change that is required is a rupture change.

The balance of national accounts is a balance between income and expenses of our collective institutions (government, social security, etc). It requires first to understand what collective institutions we need and want – the basis of our social contract. Over time most developed countries have evolved collective institutions that provide a significant protection to individuals (health, minimum social support, justice), protection of society as a whole (military, police), implementation and building collective infrastructure (roads, etc),and a large number of other important services related to information management and statistics.

These national institutions are generally governmental and not submitted to competition. They don’t have to adapt to the new conditions of the world as quickly and thoroughly as other organizations.

In many instance those collective protection institutions have based their intervention on a standard career path and value production environment – mandatory age for retirement, structure of health insurance based on salaried employment, etc.

As the Fourth Revolution unfolds with more diverse lives, some developing internationally, these approaches will prove increasingly obsolete.

Yet it remains important to provide a minimum social protection to anyone should life be unkind. This is typically provided in the form of an insurance, averaging the risk over a large number of people and instances.

The first way to address the debt crisis is thus to ask again what core needs our social institutions should address. Protection needs to be made personal, not collective, because our lives will be more diverse – that is a significant change. Creating the right infrastructure is key to the economical development, requires long term funding beyond the normal horizon of private investors – public implication is needed. Etc.

The second way to address the debt crisis is to examine whether submitting the institutions that deliver these services to competition could not deliver a more sustainable service. Indeed the fact that information management is now available to anyone, and not just reserved to expensive bureaucracy as it was a few decades ago, is a key change brought by the Fourth Revolution. Most traditionally public functions can now be delivered reliably by private organizations. Why hesitate?

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The national debt crisis is a normal consequence of the Fourth Revolution

No wonder the developed world suffers of a national debt crisis: with the Fourth Revolution spreading, the value production systems shifts. Our traditional government funding and operation are obsolete. As well as the traditional remediation solutions.

National Debt Crisis
The national debt crisis becomes unsustainable

Because tax systems are based on an Industrial Age view of the value production system, taxes necessarily shrink relative to the overall economy.

Because social support systems and government operation are based on Industrial Age view of career, retirement, social support, scope of responsibility of government, expenses continue to be huge, and to increase.

With the Fourth Revolution, instant transmittal of information and funds, and globalization, gone is the golden age of the Industrial Age where governments could resolve this dilemma by creating more money, devaluating currencies, playing with trade barriers.

The debt crisis is a direct consequence of the fact that our collective social systems are still operating under the framework of the Industrial Age while the world is already in the Fourth Revolution.

For governments, to continue along the sames lines as before will at best delay the inevitable. But that is what all governments do right now! We need to take the grasp of the fundamental shift of our societies. A Revolution in our social contract is needed. Now.

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The Fourth Revolution: grieving the world we understood

It is well known to change practitioners that people, when faced with a significant change that touch them emotionally, go through stages of grief. The classical model involves the following successive stages:

  • Denial
  • Anger
  • Bargaining
  • Depression
  • Acceptance
  • Gratefulness

So, the same happens when faced by an earth-shattering transformation like the Fourth Revolution. We are grieving the world we understood, which seemed so stable and so easy to understand.

A large number of people are in still in denial; others are angry of their perceived lack of control over what is evolving. Others try to bargain out of it so as to remain on the side of the road in minimum comfort. Still others are in total depression because they feel they can’t cope with the changes of the world. And some – a minority – perceive this change as an opportunity.

An excellent resource on the particular case of social media is the post by Amber Naslund on Social media adoption and the stages of grief.

So, regarding the Fourth Revolution, at what stage of grief are you?

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Social networks dynamics like you have never seen them

The New-York Times research lab is developing an application that allows to visualize the dynamics of social networks. How some people serve as linchpins for the diffusion of information.

Have a look at

http://www.nytlabs.com/projects/cascade.html

there is a video that shows better than any words how that works. It is astounding. The information diffusion cascade is shown in real time. You can understand how it spreads (or not). No doubt we are now in the midst of the Fourth Revolution!

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