The graph below shows clearly how the social networks now touch the majority of people in all age categories.
Social network adoption is visibly increasingly widespread with all age groups. Older people also do increasingly use social networks to communicate with family and extended relationship.
This might even lead some providers like Facebook, Twitter and the like to have to change a bit their offering or the format of their interface.
These statistics are for the US, from my personal experience I don’t see why it would be widely significant worldwide even in emerging countries.
The power that is being released in terms of social communication is massive as it now pervades inter-generational links. Watch for more amazing consequences and value creation!
There are more and more converging papers, posts and books about the disappearance of the ‘middle class’. The ‘middle class’ actually is quite a specific concept linked to the Industrial Age – it did not exist before: employees of corporations with a significant buying power and certainty in future revenue and position, that could hence spend in a number of consumption goods and invest in property, own their own house…
It seems quite visible from the available statistics that in effect, the wealth of the ‘middle class’ is diminishing; that less and less people can be described as being part of this group (as shown by the graph above); and that the very characteristics that described it – job security, relatively good buying power etc – seem to be disappearing.
As many authors today, I believe it is a structural change brought about by the Fourth Revolution – and not just the result of increased inequality that would be due by globalization (low salaries elsewhere…). It is due by a shift in value creation. The relatively repetitive and often bureaucratic work of the middle class is increasingly being taken up by automatic systems and soon by robots. Value concentrates in the creative work that gives life to these systems and tools.
This will pose a number of problems to our societies:
the consumption economy is in great part based on the buying power of the middle class
value creation will concentrate on a smaller percentage of the people, which will require a revamp of the redistribution policies to maintain social harmony.
This shift is probably the most critical societal shift created by the Fourth Revolution. Are you ready for it?
Have a look at the great infographics by Designly on what happens in one second on the internet (please scroll down to feel the real size of the interaction!).
Follow the link in the post the infographics is much, much better!
As the site reminds us:
10 years ago Skype, Facebook, YouTube, Reddit, Twitter, Tumblr, Dropbox, and Instagram didn’t exist.
20 years ago there were only 130 websites total, Google wasn’t even around yet, and you had to pay for an email account through an ISP.
August 2013 headlines: After six years of tutorials and millions of views, YouTube beauty guru Michelle Phan has launched her own 250-product line of makeup – backed by L’Oreal.
I am not particularly a fan or expert on makeup (!) but I found it to be a great story to show the power of the Fourth Revolution. Michelle is clearly passionate about makeup. After some blogging she started posting videos on Youtube in 2007. Obviously there was a need! She has today 769 million views and has 4.6 million subscribers! And what was a passion became a business. AT 23 years old L’Orelas backed up her video making. And at 26 years old L’Oreal backs her up for a personal line of makeup.
This great post on Mashable explains her story. Her secret recipe is story-telling. “Success is like a lightning bolt. It’ll strike you when you least expect it, and you just have to keep the momentum going” she says! This other post is also quite instructive about her career.
Coming from a humble background, with passion and having obviously fun, Michelle created what will soon be an empire. She created tremendous value for many people (for free). And most of her fans are at the other end of the planet, in Asia. And all thanks to the Fourth Revolution!
Have a look at the promotional Youtube movie for her product line which recounts her journey and where she thanks the community she created around her for giving her all the ideas that founded her success and her product. Still don’t believe in the Fourth Revolution?
Avid readers of this blog will know how much we believe and observe that the Fourth Revolution will transform existing institutions. Older institutions do fight back though – and often through the usage of existing regulations, which do in fact tend to reinforce the status quo.
Older Institution in need of a facelift?
A good summary of the issues faced by a number of startups that intend to radically change the economics of certain sectors such as taxi (Uber), accommodation (Airbnb) is available in this post ‘New innovators face backlash‘.
Issues related to tax that are faced by the web leaders such as Google and Amazon can be added to the evidence. In fact it is amazing how existing regulations promote stability. And hence do promote deep instability when changes are so significant that the former order of things can’t work any more.
Would the legislative inflation that can be observed in many countries nowadays be another sign of the resistance against the Fourth Revolution?
In any case, really disruptive innovations will necessarily hit existing regulations as they become significant enough to be noticeable. Those countries that will be flexible enough will succeed quicker in the transition to the Collaborative Age. Which are they?
In the last months there has been an increased attention and writing about piracy for 3D objects, following the continuous success and spread of 3D scanners and printers. A good summary of the 3D piracy issue is available in this Quartz post. A good summary of the development of 3D printing and the associated issues is available on the Economist here (although it dates back Sept’ 2012 it is still a good paper).
A Do-it-yourself 3-D printer
Authorities start to get worried (see this link on the US Copyright enforcer’s concerns). Because the issue is about sharing the files that describe the 3D objects freely, it would be possible to enforce the same type of measures than the ones currently enforced by the music and video industries regarding copyrighted material. However it will certainly prove more challenging to decide whether the file is really an infringement. It is probably more difficult to figure out what the object really looks like compared to a music or video stream!
Anyway, once again we observe that the Fourth Revolution is challenging traditional, established industries and institutions in a new way. There will be a struggle, there will be a debate, and finally we’ll see emerge a new balance between the needs to the creator and the industry that supports it. Let’s watch how other institutions will change!
The Fourth Revolution is about the end of ownership as we know it traditionally. At least it is the trend for may of the amenities that we use on a day-to-day basis. Instead of owning, we rent. When we own, we share.
We don’t own any more our music, our films – we rent them. In many towns people rent on an as-needed basis their transportation means: bicycles and cars – instead of owning them. In electrical cars we will probably rent the batteries instead of owning it – and exchange it instead of loading it. We won’t probably even own the car but lease it and share it.
When we don’t rent, the trend is to share in an effective manner – hence the services such as Airnb (sharing apartments or couches), or services that propose to share cars during the day instead of leaving them in the office parking…
This is all made possible by the online platforms made available by internet, powered up by mobile ubiquity. The number of these platforms is increasing at a rapid pace. Those that can offer a great quality of service thrive. These platforms lower the time and cost for coordination with other users. Our preferences can be known that optimize what’s available and even offer useful suggestions.
Not only will this trend decrease the number of items we will need collectively, it will result in less waste. It also means that our choices increase dramatically – owning, sharing or renting.
There are still certainly a lot of still unidentified opportunities in renting instead of buying, or sharing those amenities we use on a day-to-day basis. Any idea?
This book is excellent and is based on very much the same philosophy as the Fourth Revolution. An entertaining slideshow and even a video are available to explain the basic concept of the book (and take an other view on the Fourth Revolution!). Enjoy!
“Information is a valuable national asset whose value is multiplied when it is made easily accessible to the public“.
Early May, President Obama released historical new rules for US government Open Data: from now on, data generated by the US government is to be made available in open, machine-readable formats. A new portal is setup to make the data available to those that want to use it to enhance its use.
To clarify the impact of that decision and how it will change things for the citizen, this excellent paper by the Canadian David Eaves, an eager supporter of Open Data, gives further insights: ‘Thoughts on the White House Executive Order on Open Data‘
No doubt that this US initiative will span similar initiatives in a number of other countries. Crowdsourcing the usage of government data to create meaningful information is in its infancy. Watch as incredible usage will be made of this data and how it will change public policies for the better!
During the Industrial Age, Publishers enjoyed a fantastic position as being the only one to be able to spread the information. Newspapers in particular, were the only way for companies to advertise until the invention of other broadcasting techniques such as radio and TV.
In summary, those organizations that were using publishers as intermediaries are now broadcasting directly their message to the world. No need of a publisher any more! Why would you continue to believe that only publishers can get you access to some kind of captive audience that you would not be able to reach otherwise? You can, today, make your information available on the internet in a format you can better control, using all different kinds of techniques from written ads to videos.
This is what is called ‘content marketing’. Kylie’s position in her post that it is possible to make the published content evolve to make it better suited to the advertiser’s needs can be discussed – in any case it shows that the publishers cannot any more decide what’s worthy or not as when they enjoyed this fantastic monopolistic position of being the only ones able to spread information to the world.
As we move through the Fourth Revolution, organizations and individuals will increasingly publish themselves or through content aggregators. Publishers will become extinct as a profession. It is ineluctable.
It is a commonly held belief that to create innovation, and hence economic growth and competitiveness, governments and companies should invest in R&D. R&D expenditure is an important indicator used at political level to evaluate the competitiveness of economies.
The first powered flight by the Wright brothers
However, there is plenty of substantial evidence, at least anecdotal, that the most impacting and most fundamental inventions were rarely created by government or centralized spending. For example, computers created in a garage; or powered flight invented by self-taught bicycle shop owners. Sometimes R&D spending creates something unexpected, not part of the original program.
The competition between the Wright Brothers and Samuel Langley, a well established academic with generous funding from government, is possibly the best example.
Samuel Langley (a true academic!)
It went to the point where the US government denied the Wright brothers recognition for forty years, so upset were they that they had succeeded and not the program the government had funded!
(Centrally planned) government or corporate funding might not be the most effective way to foster innovation. Letting an ecosystem of innovators create, destroy, fail and finally evolve into suitable innovations is certainly a much better solution. But central planning and bureaucratic management is unable to support or control such an arrangement.
The issue is more about creating a social context where failure needs to be accepted as part of the search for innovation, and where innovation needs to remain nested in action. It is not certain that the huge push of China in R&D and academic research will be effective if there is no possibility to experiment and to fail in Chinese society.
How can we release the inventive potential in a society better than spreading centrally controlled funds?
I am really starting to get fed up with the usage of the word ‘crisis’ to describe what is currently happening. It looks as if I had always lived in the midst of a continuous economic ‘crisis’ since the early 1990’s with a few short exceptions.
Joblessness for youth is a constant of the ‘crisis’… since 30 years. The decline of manufacturing and middle class is also a ‘crisis’… since the 1980’s
No, it’s not a ‘crisis’, it’s a transformation! It’s just the Fourth Revolution in action, changing our lives, our institutions, our economy, our world! Yes, there is a deep tsunami of changes in our environment, and our Industrial Age social and life model is now obsolete.
It’s only a crisis for those that want to remain where they were. It’s only a crisis for the settled. For many others, it is a once in a lifetime opportunity – in developing countries as well as for some in developed countries. New companies had appeared that have a presence in our daily lives which we could not even imagine ten years ago. They have been incredibly successful at the same time as the ‘crisis’.
Please, ban the word ‘crisis’ from your vocabulary. It’s a transformation, and it is time you surf on its wave.
Social network adoption is visibly increasingly widespread with all age groups. Older people also do increasingly use social networks to communicate with family and extended relationship.
