Answer to the quiz: the flaw of hourly analysis of social network

Last week’s quiz was about the deep flaw of any kind of hourly analysis of social networks

The right answer was: because of cheap long distance communication, the entire world – all time zones – is potentially participating to our conversation.

So, time does not have any meaning any more, beyond our circle of friends living in the same time zone.

Based in Asia, I am participating to conversations in Europe and in America. You read this blog and you are most probably more than 5,000 km away.

Time does not matter any more. The sun never sets on our conversations.

Welcome to the Fourth Revolution!

Congrats to Olivier Lareynie for his answer – I am looking for his guest post!

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How the Fourth Revolution changes the military

The Fourth Revolution changes dramatically the military – for a long time the most hierarchical organization.

The military is hierarchical because in the midst of dangerous action there is not time for discussion and the leaders need to be visibly identifiable.

Yet today the military need to become smart in the way they seek to achieve their objectives. Information is key today, and leveraging Collaborative tools is a way to better identify important information. Leveraging on the collaboration of the troops for data acquisition and intelligence is just a way to leverage on the Fourth Revolution.

This interesting speech of General McChrystal on TED about leadership shows clearly the contradictions the military face today between their traditional hierarchical model and the emergence of the Fourth Revolution.

And recently, the USA published a new doctrine about cyberwarfare, getting ready for cyber wars.

The military forces of the Collaborative Age will be organized and operate very differently. And the military will certainly even change deeply as an institution. Are the military ready for such a change? Are they aware of the potential of changing the way they run intelligence and active missions?

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A first functional aircraft entirely 3D-printed!

If you are a regular reader of this blog you certainly remember the blog post about 3D printing and how that will change the world – making manufacturing as we know it obsolete. Anything you need will be available through on-demand printing at the corner shop.

The first operational aircraft model printed in 3D
The first operational aircraft model printed in 3D

OK, we’re still a bit far away from that. Still, a milestone was reached during the summer 2011 with the first functional aircraft model that was entirely 3D printed, flying!

More on this feat following this link to a blog post detailing the event and looking at what Boeing is doing in terms of R&D for real commercial aircrafts.

This other blog post is also very englightening as to the current status of progress regarding 3D printing (includes a MUST SEE video from National Geographic).

Traditional engineering and manufacturing  (assembling bits and pieces) are going straight for obsolescence!

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Connect to needy individuals in developing countries and lend them money – the power of the Fourth Revolution

Fancy connecting and supporting personally a person with a small project that would take him or her out of misery in the remotest developing country?

Micro-finance is a concept which brought Mohamad Yunus a Nobel Prize. The concept is simple: in developing countries, banks will not lend small amounts to needy people who would just need a few dollars to setup their business or invest in something valuable.

Micro-finance concentrates on micro-loans: a few dozen dollars, a hundred at the most. Often loaned to women, repayment rates are astonishing – generally more than 99%.

Kiva.org logo
Kiva.org logo

That’s where the Fourth Revolution comes in. Non-profits like Kiva.org allow you to extend micro-loans to needy but industrious people in developing countries.

OK, a lot of non profits are doing that.

Yes, but – on Kiva.org you choose who you are lending to!!

Using Kiva’s web site, you can read about local entrepreneurs all over the world and issue your own micro-loan to the ones you are impressed by. So far, Kiva has facilitated 300,000+ loans in 200+ coun­tries for a total of $200+ million dollars that has changed hands—and the repayment rate is an amazing 98.79%. Keep an eye on them, because they represent the fu­ture of charity and micro-lending. Their total loans (number and value) have grown almost tenfold in 4 years.

At the click of a mouse you can directly give a loan to someone, participate in micro-finance. Visit Kiva.org for more information!

Who says the Fourth Revolution does not connect people across the world?

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Will cities remain in the Collaborative Age?

Cities developed dramatically during the Industrial Age. Cities developed around factories (a large number of workers had to live nearby). Cities were justified by scarce and slow communication capabilities (for information and for people). Significant value was created in cities, as the rubbing of diverse population created a fertile ground for creativity. Costs of living in cities rose in proportion to the value that was created there. Because of poor planning, some cities became congested beyond the bearable.

picture of crowded city
picture of crowded city

Many parameters that made cities indispensable in the Industrial Age are disappearing today. And, indeed, there is a tendency for affluent, highly qualified people to move back to the countryside, with its low cost, high quality of living. They use their internet connection to compensate distance and maintain their network.

Are cities doomed? It is not sure as they are still an extremely effective way of living in terms of resource utilization (land, energy…), as long as they are properly planned and maintained. And face-to-face interaction, the creation of core teams, is still very important in the Collaborative Age; it will remain.

Cities will probably stay but mutate into different animals. They will probably evolve into more sustainable forms where networks of public transportation will irrigate cradles of creativity. The borders with the countryside will blur. And they will be more open, networked.

How do you think cities will evolve?

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Are “charter cities” really the future? Is Paul Romer wrong?

In a talk about charter cities on TED in 2009, Paul Romer explains extremely brilliantly how cities develop their own charter, their own rules, to grow as cities, to create the value of cities as a center of exchange, of creativity. This perspective is very interesting, and applies to a number of cities who have grown with specific rules that did only apply within their limited territory.

In 2011, Paul Romer comes again to TED and announces that a country in Central America has passed a constitutional change to allow a city to grow out of nothing in the middle of the country, with specific rules to be developed for that new territory to foster economic growth.

I doubt that will work. All the examples Paul Romer is drawing upon – Singapore, Hong Kong, are cities that developed thanks to their environment, and not independently of it. Hong Kong was the door to China and thrived on this relationship. Singapore is placed at a key geographical bottleneck of world commerce, and thrived as a logistics and shipping platform. Can one create a city anywhere, with specific rules to promote growth, and hope that the city will expand?

I doubt it. Let’s watch the experiment and hope that there won’t be too much disappointment.

 

 

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Solutions to the national debt crisis 2/2: reviewing our tax base

Our current tax base will soon be obsolete. It needs to be replaced by taxation of our new collaborative capabilities.

During the Agricultural Age, tax was based on a share of the crops. When the Third Revolution came – which would eventually lead to the Industrial Revolution, a new value system was created that soon dwarfed Agricultural value: Industry. The governments which had relied since centuries on agricultural tax became weaker and weaker. They had to get money lent to them by the new ‘bourgeois’, who created value by trade or industry. The system became less and less stable as the traditional governing elite became relatively poorer and poorer, as industrial value increased orders of magnitude above agricultural value.

Today in developed countries, agriculture represents 2 to 3% of the GDP. Even if it was taxed entirely it would not represent much of the 30-50% which is swallowed by taxes and social security payments!

Today, we are again in the same situation. Our tax system is mostly based on Industrial Age value. A new value production system has been created with the Fourth Revolution that is expanding and that will eventually dwarf the Industrial Age value. The only way to get out of this conundrum is to change our tax base to effectively tax the Collaborative Age value! This is going to be difficult immediately because our accounting systems which date from the Industrial Age do not account for it.

The Agricultural Age example also reminds us that tax is not necessarily only money, it can also be in kind, including the time of people doing certain activities for the public good.

The solution is thus not to increase tax the Industrial Age way. It is to create new ways of deriving a share of the tremendous value created by collaboration for the public good. Because collaborative value is not linked to geography, countries will find it difficult to create such new taxes on their own. The solution needs to be internationally agreed.  But that is the only possible way forward to avoid our governments to become relatively poorer and poorer.

The challenge is huge but so important for the stability of our societies that it should be taken upfront. Do you have ideas on the matter?

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Solutions to the national debt crisis 1/2: reviewing our social contract

We won’t solve the national debt crisis following the same mindset we have currently. This mindset, this logic we have inherited from the Industrial Age.

Solving the national debt crisis will necessarily require thinking outside the box, outside the usual operation of our social institutions. New institutions will need to be created, current institutions will become obsolete. The change that is required is a rupture change.

The balance of national accounts is a balance between income and expenses of our collective institutions (government, social security, etc). It requires first to understand what collective institutions we need and want – the basis of our social contract. Over time most developed countries have evolved collective institutions that provide a significant protection to individuals (health, minimum social support, justice), protection of society as a whole (military, police), implementation and building collective infrastructure (roads, etc),and a large number of other important services related to information management and statistics.

These national institutions are generally governmental and not submitted to competition. They don’t have to adapt to the new conditions of the world as quickly and thoroughly as other organizations.

In many instance those collective protection institutions have based their intervention on a standard career path and value production environment – mandatory age for retirement, structure of health insurance based on salaried employment, etc.

As the Fourth Revolution unfolds with more diverse lives, some developing internationally, these approaches will prove increasingly obsolete.

Yet it remains important to provide a minimum social protection to anyone should life be unkind. This is typically provided in the form of an insurance, averaging the risk over a large number of people and instances.

The first way to address the debt crisis is thus to ask again what core needs our social institutions should address. Protection needs to be made personal, not collective, because our lives will be more diverse – that is a significant change. Creating the right infrastructure is key to the economical development, requires long term funding beyond the normal horizon of private investors – public implication is needed. Etc.

The second way to address the debt crisis is to examine whether submitting the institutions that deliver these services to competition could not deliver a more sustainable service. Indeed the fact that information management is now available to anyone, and not just reserved to expensive bureaucracy as it was a few decades ago, is a key change brought by the Fourth Revolution. Most traditionally public functions can now be delivered reliably by private organizations. Why hesitate?

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The national debt crisis is a normal consequence of the Fourth Revolution

No wonder the developed world suffers of a national debt crisis: with the Fourth Revolution spreading, the value production systems shifts. Our traditional government funding and operation are obsolete. As well as the traditional remediation solutions.

National Debt Crisis
The national debt crisis becomes unsustainable

Because tax systems are based on an Industrial Age view of the value production system, taxes necessarily shrink relative to the overall economy.

Because social support systems and government operation are based on Industrial Age view of career, retirement, social support, scope of responsibility of government, expenses continue to be huge, and to increase.

With the Fourth Revolution, instant transmittal of information and funds, and globalization, gone is the golden age of the Industrial Age where governments could resolve this dilemma by creating more money, devaluating currencies, playing with trade barriers.

The debt crisis is a direct consequence of the fact that our collective social systems are still operating under the framework of the Industrial Age while the world is already in the Fourth Revolution.

For governments, to continue along the sames lines as before will at best delay the inevitable. But that is what all governments do right now! We need to take the grasp of the fundamental shift of our societies. A Revolution in our social contract is needed. Now.

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Fourth Revolution at work: who will change first of China or Google?

The fate of Google in China is a very interesting event. Combined with the Arab Revolutions, gives food for thought about the impact of the Fourth Revolution on autocratic governments.

Google in China
Google in China

An article from CNN gives a detailed account of the misfortunes of Google in China. It is a bit long, but it is worth the read. In particular, because it shows how the uncompromising attitude of Google frontally collided with the suspicion of the Chinese officials. That was certainly quite a cultural shock!

 

So, let’s take a high level view looking at what will certainly happen in the future. China will certainly be able to develop on its own tools that will give a similar service to Google, Facebook etc. The Chinese characters help, and China is a big enough country to have everything done in their native tongue. Still, isn’t China taking a path, that on the long term might isolate it from the creativity of the Collaborative Age?

That might be the case. We already see that China being the manufacturer of the planet, had developed services much slowly than India. That is maybe the long term communist mindset (an Industrial-Age oriented mindset). India is democratic, open on the internet, developing myriads of Fourth Revolution applications using the most of long distance communication.

Who will win? I have a guess. On the long term, being isolated from the waves and currents of global creativity is not sustainable. China is large, has its own language, and might resist a bit longer than smaller countries. Still the Fourth Revolution calls for inclusion in the stream of the world.

China will need to change or will crumble. And that might be soon, so quick are the changes of the Fourth Revolution.

And what about Google? It might also need to change, as it seems. Let’s make a guess? Who will change dramatically first? China or Google?

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Keep out of the dinosaur area

That’s probably the sign we should put on the fence of the large Industrial Age companies.

Dinosaur area - keep out sign
Dinosaur area - keep out sign

For two reasons.

One, you’d better keep out because that’s not going to be fun when they will be overwhelmed by the value generated by the Fourth Revolution. They will resist and fight and destroy what’s too close.

Second, if there is a fence around these organizations, for sure they are not open organizations. And they cannot benefit from the value of collaboration.

So keep out of the dinosaur area. They’re going to be wiped out. The more adaptable and flexible will prevail.

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Social networks and revolutions: the controversy

There is a controversy ongoing about the role of social networks in the recent movements and revolutions in the Arab world.

Everybody agrees that social networks played an important role, but was it decisive? In other words, would these revolutions have happened without social networks?

Refer to this article “Is Social Networking Useless for Social Change? A Response to The New Yorker’s Malcolm Gladwell” to get a sense of the controversy.

My opinion is that Malcolm Gladwell is still in the Industrial Age mindset that expected a group of people to get together to broadcast something to society. Today we are beyond this. We don’t need a small group of people to devise something intelligent and broadcast it as a platform for social change. Everybody is exchanging and coordinating together on social networks and that creates the fertile ground of social change. And governments that are still in the broadcast-control mode will be swept away by the wave of change. Because the control of broadcasting, which was the foundation of power, is now obsolete.

What do you think about this controversy?

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