The point is, having choices or no is always subjective.
We often feel stuck, without choices, constrained.
That’s just a perception, a cognitive bias. More and more, choices are there, around us, multiple. They have been multiplied through the Fourth Revolution: for example, stay-at-home moms can create thriving businesses from their home through the internet!
We often can’t see our choices. But they are there. Do the exercise. Think out of the box, find 5 choices for your life you did not think about.
PS: on the photo, which way do you go? Myself, I won’t go left or right. Maybe straight in the middle. Or turn at a right angle from the trodden path. See. There are more choices than it seems!
While many still believe that Manufacturing (or Industry) is key to value creation, it is very obvious that since the 1980’s, Services have gained preeminence in the economic world.
Moreover, more and more people do not appear in these statistics now, because they are ‘self-employed’! Which is definitely a global trend nowadays.
Even more striking is this graph from the Fourth Revolution book: it shows the composition of the top 100 companies in the US over time. What do we observe? Suddenly from 1985 onwards, Service companies have become the vast majority of the biggest companies.
How Services have taken over from Manufacturing in 20 years
This is identified in the book as one of the precursors of the Fourth Revolution. Value has shifted dramatically. Manufacturing will become like Agriculture: necessary, but a small part of the economical value creation.
That might be hard to understand if you’re borne before 1970-75. Change your mindset. Value is not any more in manufacturing nowadays. And Apple recently overtook Exxon as the largest stock valuation in the world.
The Fourth Revolution is here. Today, value is created overwhelmingly elsewhere than in Manufacturing.
Let’s generalize: the Fourth Revolution is starting to deeply impact our physical environment. The ubiquity of digital communication will deeply change our home environment, but also our usual urban environment (soon to come: urban furniture like bus stops that will communicate with your mobile phone, and advertisement postings that recognize you).
That is going to be destabilizing, there will be trials and errors. Still, one thing is sure: our physical environment is going to be very different in say – 20 years time. Take some pictures today to remember how it was like!
“The Fourth Revolution is here. Such a deep transformation of the world has happened only three times before in Humankind’s 100,000 years’ history. Cheap, long distance, interactive communication unleashes the potential of Humankind. The Fourth Revolution will completely change our society, our organizations, our mindsets. In “The Fourth Revolution“, Jeremie Averous gives us the keys to this world transformation. A visionary guidebook to the world of today and tomorrow”
– Patrick Snow, International Best-Selling Author of Creating Your Own Destiny and The Affluent Entrepreneur
So, still don’t know what the Fourth Revolution is? Buy the Fourth Revolution book today and discover by yourself what it means to you, to us, to the world!
Look closely at this picture, taken in a street of a developed country, and so typical of today’s crisis:
a 2011 crisis queue
What are people queuing for?
Maybe their bank went broke and they queue, hoping to save their last pennies.
Maybe they don’t have anything to eat, and they wait for some food to be given away?
Maybe they don’t have a job, and they wait patiently in front of the local job office?
Sorry – none of this. This is what they wait for:
the real 2011 crisis!
They wait for the new iPhone. They wait for the new communication tools which, behind the scenes, reshapes our world.
The Fourth Revolution is a Revolution. Institutions and society will change. Arab countries revolt, helped by modern communication technology. The foundations of our industry and financial system are shaken by the changes in the value chain. What was worthwhile yesterday will not be valued tomorrow; what was mainstream yesterday might be unethical tomorrow.
The world readjusts to the Fourth Revolution. Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” is happening right under our eyes. The foundations of the Industrial Revolution are shaken. Silently, behind the scenes, a new world is being shaped by visionaries, Steve Jobs and others. An other world. The Collaborative Age.
It is one year since this blog has started exchanging with the world.
What a year!…
I still remember the stress at the moment of pressing the ‘publish button’ one year ago. Publishing to the world was scary… and enticing at the same time!
While that was primarily an experiment, I must say I have been taken up by the game! More than 170 blog posts later, I am even more enthusiastic about it!
first birthday celebration
It’s a good time for a look back on one year discussing and publishing about the Fourth Revolution:
the Fourth Revolution blog and website went live on Oct 10, 2010
the first manuscript of the Fourth Revolution book was ready in December 2010 after 5 month work
I had to change the hosting solution for the blog in January 2011 after some difficult days without being able to access it!
it took a few months of improvement after a few early readers gave their feedback, editing, typesetting, before the Fourth Revolution book was published in May 2011
the Fourth Revolution book was finally fully available on internet, print on demand in June 2011 at the same time I started public talks about it. More than 100 copies have been sold so far.
And now…? What is the new year going to be like?…
Let’s now spread to the word of the Fourth Revolution much more widely than it does right now.
I intend to do much more communication and public talking. I hope to build a real community around the concept.
Because it is important. Because the world is changing, and so should we.
“Don’t worry about people stealing an idea. If it’s original, you will have to ram it down their throats.”
This is a quote by Howard Aiken, and American scientist (1900-1973) who was very much involved in the computer and electronics field at its outset.
And, by experience, it is held to be true by all the players in front-edge products and companies.
It just means that if your idea is really original, people will just not believe in it. Not only that, but they will try to kill it and discourage you.
So don’t worry about the competition – at least if you pursue this visionary idea persistently. Your following will come. And when you will be successful, you will redefine the market.
An other meaning is that an idea is nothing without its execution. What’s really difficult is to put it in practice, implement, tweak, mature it – and to do it against the rest of the world. That’s where the value lies. Anybody can have fantastic ideas. Not so many will be able to implement them. It takes focus, time, patience and persistence.
The defining criteria of patents should not be any more that some kind of prototype has been produced, but whether it has been adopted by a large following. Nobody cares about an invention if it is not used, and it is not appropriate to have the inventor become rich because somebody else managed to use the idea to produce social value.
Let’s change intellectual property. Let’s make it social. Ultimately, that’s where value lies.
Social media allows us unprecedented insights into sociology. The following graph, from the New-York Times article “Twitter study tracks when we are :)”, shows what specific analysis, looking at the words people use, can tell us about how people are feeling.
our mood analyzed through twitter
Similar studies have also sought to predict how the stock market would open based on the overall mood of the traders (as reflected by the twitter terms used).
Some of these studies appear a bit anecdotal but the lesson is that new fields of study are opening thanks to all this available data. Think about it – some of us put literally their entire life on social networks. The Fourth Revolution gives researchers the possibility to analyse through the data of thousands of people worldwide. A true treasure trove for generations of sociologists.
We can expect that in a few years time, new unprecedented insights about sociology will appear. I can’t wait to see what it will be.
If you talk about the 4th revolution in your company of the Industrial Age (or at least try to explain it), I think most people would say “Yes, we’re a part of it! The company has its Twitter and Facebook accounts, we even post videos on Youtube!”.
I think that what we got then are two categories of companies and organizations.
what to do with social networks?
Companies of the first category only use the tools of the 4th revolution as if they were from the Industrial Age, like radio, television or newspapers: one-way communication (nowadays faster), no interaction and no collaboration (even at short-distance).
Companies of the second category are aware that the entire society is currently being redefined, and are slowly opening to this new world. 4th revolution tools are not considered as one-way communication tools, and the first fruits of the collaboration and interaction are visible. However, these tools are often controlled by very few management people, and their use doesn’t means that the company is as open-minded as it seems to be when you watch it from outside.
Have you tried to explain the 4th revolution concepts to colleagues in your company of the Industrial Age?
I’ve tried. And I’ve realized that 4th revolution concepts are not so easy to explain, and can be misunderstood or misinterpreted very easily. I’m sure there are many companies and people who really want to thrive through the 4th revolution, but maybe they are thinking in the wrong way.
How to avoid the illusion of being part of the 4th revolution? How to help people and companies to be a part of it?
Governments are reluctant to open themselves. Regulatory authorities even more so, generally.
Andre-Claude Lacoste, president of the French Nuclear Safety Authority, in a press conference
When I was at the French Nuclear Safety Authority ten years ago, the President, Andre-Claude Lacoste, decided to publish the follow-up letters that were sent to operators after they got inspected and audited. He took this decision very much against everybody (in government, operators and civil society). They were scared it could give leverage to anti-nuclear activists to know all the small mistakes they were making. I myself, managing inspectors, must say I was not very comfortable letting my activity be under close public scrutiny.
I learnt my lesson. The end result is globally, today, a much more mature discussion about nuclear safety, and a much better understanding of the effectiveness of public control and regulation by all parties. The operators are much more careful to respond to the Regulator’s observations and are being held accountable by the public. The anti-nuclear activists watch how control is effectively done. The Regulator itself is more careful to have a balanced view.
That was a bold step. A step many regulatory authorities in many fields have not yet taken. But that was openness 1.0. – before the Fourth Revolution.
Although the French Nuclear Authority does use today many social tools, it is still only one way, only broadcasting. When will Regulators move decisively into openness 2.0?. Go and open discussion forums, create a network of interested people, let people comment on blogs and articles, let a debate grow, let people in the organization be in touch with the citizens, their issues.
Most people will think it is risky. It is as risky as when 10 years ago, Andre-Claude Lacoste decided to publish inspection follow-up letters.
It will only bring the debate to an even more mature stage, where the Regulatory authority, a public authority, will perform its job closer to the citizen. Where all parties will be able to express their views publicly and create the right debate. And at the end, where the citizen will feel it is taken care of.
Open Regulation 2.0, where the Regulatory Authority will foster debate and exchange on the industry it regulates, listening much more deeply and quickly to citizen’s issues, is the way Regulation will work in the Collaborative Age.
The French Nuclear Safety Authority was a precursor of Open Regulation 1.0. Will it also be a precursor of Open Regulation 2.0?
Did you take the time to review the Fourth Revolution on Amazon?
You can choose to review the book on either in English on Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk or in French on Amazon.fr , or even in German on Amazon.de. Follow the links to find the book’s page! (Amazon sites do not share reviews so feel free to copy your Amazon.com review on Amazon.co.uk or other Amazon sites!)
Also, please do not hesitate to send me comments and other useful hints to improve the book further! I will consider a second improved edition when I will have received enough feedback for that
Let’s repeat: the cost of defending innovation has been 500,000,000,000 (500 billion) dollars for publicly traded defendants since 1990! And it has increased over time to a staggering 83,000,000,000 (83 billion) dollars per year in the last four years!
And some researchers (Bessen and Meurer in their book Patent Failure) have shown that showed that, outside the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, the cost of patent litigation had already begun to exceed the rewards to inventors by the year 2000. Their new work suggests that the problem has gotten much, much worse since then. And that the intellectual property system is definitely broken. It is supposed to bring wealth to society; actually is stymies it!!
The book “Patent Failure” is reviewed here. I can’t help copying in this post – with all due respect to copyright – a stunning graph from the book (other industries refer to other than chemical and pharmaceutical – mainly software):
Patent litigation costs are now far higher than benefits
No doubt. The intellectual property system is deeply broken and needs to be mended. Otherwise innovation might just be scared away by a bunch of parasites.
And… what better illustration for the Fourth Revolution ignition?!?
No doubt – that’s an area where the Fourth Revolution is already there and deep institutional changes are required, and fast.
