Why the Historical Trend of Interest Rates Should Be to Get Lower

Interest Rates represent our preference between a dollar today and a dollar in some time in the future. In effect, they represent our preference between now and later.

Real interest rates getting lower over long times: an illusion or a reality?
Real interest rates getting lower over long times: an illusion or a reality?

Because of the increased life expectancy and hence, capability to make plans for the future, the availability of future money should be less discounted than when we had short life expectancy and had to enjoy more the moment! We should thus observe that over time, the interest rates should decrease.

Of course, it is difficult to observe this trend with the high variability of the interest rates (real interest rates, i.e. interest rates minus inflation, should be considered here). Lately since the 1960’s it has decreased; and it is quite lower than the 5% per year without inflation that was enjoyed in the 19th century. It can be expected to rise again in the next few years, but probably not to very high levels.

I believe that it is possible that in the Collaborative Age we live with generally lower interest rates than the historical averages. Value will be created otherwise through creativity, but because we can plan for decades ahead on average, there will be a less steep discount of the future.

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