How Changes from New Technology Will Lead to Unexpected Results

In this interesting article ‘Uber and Lyft Are Overwhelming Urban Streets, and Cities Need to Act Fast‘, unexpected consequences of new technology (more streets getting more car traffic) are discussed with recommendation for a single solution: more regulation.

For sure, apps like Uber, Lyft or even apps calculating less jammed drives such as Waze or the likes necessarily change the pattern of road utilisation (Waze for example typically increases the usage of smaller, previously underutilised streets). It thus creates change and possibly at a massive level.

The new apps and services do respond to a need, which normally should decrease individual automobile utilisation; but is also creates new usage for better and more comfortable transit than public transportation on a point-to-point basis.

The interesting lesson here is that when one would think that those new services would rather decrease congestion, the actuel effect, due to the complexity of the situation, is observed to be rather the opposite. Therefore, one should not attempt to forecast what a new service will do when it scales.

Also, expecting regulation to provide a solution may be a way to go, but it needs to be considered with care, because the impact of a regulation might be equally unpredictable and the outcome may not be as expected. Welcome to a complex world!

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