In this interesting post ‘Electric Vehicles Are Outperforming The Traditional S-Curve Dynamics‘, the growth of the Electric Vehicle (EV) market is analyzed. The result is that all indicators tend to show that the product is now becoming mainstream instead of being a niche product.
The argument of the article is based on the fact that EV introduction is accelerating (in terms of year-on-year growth, thus from an exponential perspective) instead of slowing down as could be expected, “suggesting that EVs are expanding the addressable market“. This just means that the addressable market had been considered in a too restrictive manner initially, which can also be viewed as the fact that the EV product is now mainstream with a much larger market.
In fact, the initial introduction of EV was heavily subsidized and this limited de facto the possible market; such subsidies are progressively diminishing, because for certain usage patterns, EV do become economically competitive with mass production.
This analysis would seem to show that the rate of adoption would be so high in the next few years that it may be offering-constrained due to the delays in setting up sufficient production capacity, with a focus on batteries.
Electric Vehicles are some kind of hybrid between a conventional mechanical appliance and an electronic equipment, we can thus expect to see a much quicker adoption in the next few years that could be expected from a purely mechanical commodity. Next few years will be quite exciting in that respect!
