As mentioned in our previous post ‘How to Explain Covid-19 Blindness‘, the Covid-19 situation illustrates the more general challenge in complex systems to identify weak signals early and specifically, those that can, with some probability, develop into a crisis of significant consequences.
It is a challenge many organisations are regularly facing. For example in my professional field, project management in complex projects, the challenge to detect weak signals early and act on them is addressed by advanced project control approaches.
Nevertheless, it remains a difficult issue. This monitoring is prone to generate many false alarms; and some actions taken early will also avoid some of those weak signals develop into a situation or a crisis. Therefore, there is a risk that responsible bodies become fed up by too many weak signals and lose their vigilance. Still, maintaining this detection capability remains obviously essential.
In the Covid-19 situation as in some other challenges of humanity, the weak signal was identified and clearly delineated at least in some pockets of medical specialists, and even in some strategic analysis by the military. What was not anticipated was the consequential impact on the economy. This was probably because of a lack of pluri-discipline linkage and scenario planning. In addition there has been a lack of anticipation as soon as the first signs of a possible looming scenario appeared.
As a learning point, it is probably worth as in all complex system issues to setup a multi-disciplinary weak signal challenge team to review on a regular basis those signals and recommend actions.
