Emotional work: where the value lies today

Today, in the Fourth Revolution, what is the value chain of human activities like?

At the bottom is manual work. That’s worth almost nothing, because anybody can do it.

Above that is intellectual work, in the sense of processing work (IQ). In the Industrial Age that was the tip of the value chain, because processing capability was scarce. Those who were very good at it were highly paid and regarded. The problem is that now, we have a lot of processing capability available in the form of computers and the like. Its value has melted away.

So what’s next?

Emotional work. Today, it is where the value lies. It is what leaders get paid to do. It is both personal internal emotional work, and exceptional inter-personal work. And that’s the basis of soft power. Power today does not lie in hard facts and logic. Power lies in the soft issues of emotions.

Scary, maybe, because our mindset is geared toward the value of intellectual work. But so real. How much emotional work do you think you are doing? Do more, that’s where the value is. That’s where the difference is. That’s what will make you successful.

 

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People are not cogs – a simple truth, so often forgotten!

People as cogs
Industrial Age Organization: People as cogs

In the Industrial Age, people were cogs. Manpower plans would be made, and the man-power adapted like the horse-power and the steam-power.

Today people are not cogs any more. Still many executives still forget that. Read this instructive post from the Harvard Business Review, people are not cogs.

Industrial Age culture was very much about considering people as replaceable production elements. Collaborative Age culture is about considering each person as a unique capability that might not be so easily replaced, in particular when it comes to team dynamics.

What do you observe in your organizations or environment? Do you see a trend toward the Collaborative Age view or do you feel the Industrial Age mindset is still very strong?

 

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Solutions to the national debt crisis 2/2: reviewing our tax base

Our current tax base will soon be obsolete. It needs to be replaced by taxation of our new collaborative capabilities.

During the Agricultural Age, tax was based on a share of the crops. When the Third Revolution came – which would eventually lead to the Industrial Revolution, a new value system was created that soon dwarfed Agricultural value: Industry. The governments which had relied since centuries on agricultural tax became weaker and weaker. They had to get money lent to them by the new ‘bourgeois’, who created value by trade or industry. The system became less and less stable as the traditional governing elite became relatively poorer and poorer, as industrial value increased orders of magnitude above agricultural value.

Today in developed countries, agriculture represents 2 to 3% of the GDP. Even if it was taxed entirely it would not represent much of the 30-50% which is swallowed by taxes and social security payments!

Today, we are again in the same situation. Our tax system is mostly based on Industrial Age value. A new value production system has been created with the Fourth Revolution that is expanding and that will eventually dwarf the Industrial Age value. The only way to get out of this conundrum is to change our tax base to effectively tax the Collaborative Age value! This is going to be difficult immediately because our accounting systems which date from the Industrial Age do not account for it.

The Agricultural Age example also reminds us that tax is not necessarily only money, it can also be in kind, including the time of people doing certain activities for the public good.

The solution is thus not to increase tax the Industrial Age way. It is to create new ways of deriving a share of the tremendous value created by collaboration for the public good. Because collaborative value is not linked to geography, countries will find it difficult to create such new taxes on their own. The solution needs to be internationally agreed.  But that is the only possible way forward to avoid our governments to become relatively poorer and poorer.

The challenge is huge but so important for the stability of our societies that it should be taken upfront. Do you have ideas on the matter?

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Solutions to the national debt crisis 1/2: reviewing our social contract

We won’t solve the national debt crisis following the same mindset we have currently. This mindset, this logic we have inherited from the Industrial Age.

Solving the national debt crisis will necessarily require thinking outside the box, outside the usual operation of our social institutions. New institutions will need to be created, current institutions will become obsolete. The change that is required is a rupture change.

The balance of national accounts is a balance between income and expenses of our collective institutions (government, social security, etc). It requires first to understand what collective institutions we need and want – the basis of our social contract. Over time most developed countries have evolved collective institutions that provide a significant protection to individuals (health, minimum social support, justice), protection of society as a whole (military, police), implementation and building collective infrastructure (roads, etc),and a large number of other important services related to information management and statistics.

These national institutions are generally governmental and not submitted to competition. They don’t have to adapt to the new conditions of the world as quickly and thoroughly as other organizations.

In many instance those collective protection institutions have based their intervention on a standard career path and value production environment – mandatory age for retirement, structure of health insurance based on salaried employment, etc.

As the Fourth Revolution unfolds with more diverse lives, some developing internationally, these approaches will prove increasingly obsolete.

Yet it remains important to provide a minimum social protection to anyone should life be unkind. This is typically provided in the form of an insurance, averaging the risk over a large number of people and instances.

The first way to address the debt crisis is thus to ask again what core needs our social institutions should address. Protection needs to be made personal, not collective, because our lives will be more diverse – that is a significant change. Creating the right infrastructure is key to the economical development, requires long term funding beyond the normal horizon of private investors – public implication is needed. Etc.

The second way to address the debt crisis is to examine whether submitting the institutions that deliver these services to competition could not deliver a more sustainable service. Indeed the fact that information management is now available to anyone, and not just reserved to expensive bureaucracy as it was a few decades ago, is a key change brought by the Fourth Revolution. Most traditionally public functions can now be delivered reliably by private organizations. Why hesitate?

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The national debt crisis is a normal consequence of the Fourth Revolution

No wonder the developed world suffers of a national debt crisis: with the Fourth Revolution spreading, the value production systems shifts. Our traditional government funding and operation are obsolete. As well as the traditional remediation solutions.

National Debt Crisis
The national debt crisis becomes unsustainable

Because tax systems are based on an Industrial Age view of the value production system, taxes necessarily shrink relative to the overall economy.

Because social support systems and government operation are based on Industrial Age view of career, retirement, social support, scope of responsibility of government, expenses continue to be huge, and to increase.

With the Fourth Revolution, instant transmittal of information and funds, and globalization, gone is the golden age of the Industrial Age where governments could resolve this dilemma by creating more money, devaluating currencies, playing with trade barriers.

The debt crisis is a direct consequence of the fact that our collective social systems are still operating under the framework of the Industrial Age while the world is already in the Fourth Revolution.

For governments, to continue along the sames lines as before will at best delay the inevitable. But that is what all governments do right now! We need to take the grasp of the fundamental shift of our societies. A Revolution in our social contract is needed. Now.

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Ideas multiplication – by George Bernard Shaw

We speak a lot about creativity and the fact that creativity happens when two unrelated ideas meet.

Two green apples
Two green apples of creativity

I like that quote from George Bernard Shaw:
If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchange apples then you and I will still each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange these ideas, then each of us will have two ideas

Think about it. A century ago ideas met at the rate of a man on a horse. Today ideas meet millions or billions times more often in the same timespan. The Fourth Revolution is there. Ineluctable.

Go out and encounter new ideas! And create new ones! And share…

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The Fourth Revolution: grieving the world we understood

It is well known to change practitioners that people, when faced with a significant change that touch them emotionally, go through stages of grief. The classical model involves the following successive stages:

  • Denial
  • Anger
  • Bargaining
  • Depression
  • Acceptance
  • Gratefulness

So, the same happens when faced by an earth-shattering transformation like the Fourth Revolution. We are grieving the world we understood, which seemed so stable and so easy to understand.

A large number of people are in still in denial; others are angry of their perceived lack of control over what is evolving. Others try to bargain out of it so as to remain on the side of the road in minimum comfort. Still others are in total depression because they feel they can’t cope with the changes of the world. And some – a minority – perceive this change as an opportunity.

An excellent resource on the particular case of social media is the post by Amber Naslund on Social media adoption and the stages of grief.

So, regarding the Fourth Revolution, at what stage of grief are you?

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The power of the fable and telling stories

I just read ‘Our Iceberg is Melting’, a short fable by John Kotter and Holger Rathgeber (a name which coincidentally in German, means advice-giver!).


John Kotter is a change guru that has written a bunch of serious business books about Change. Yet is seems that his ideas spread more rapidly and effectively in the form of a short fable with large illustrations about a bunch of penguins living on an iceberg.

Now comes the difficult question: what is the best, having the greatest idea backed by 20 years of careful research and put down in a series of long serious books, or simplified and put down in a nice attractive simple book counting a memorable story, that can be read in one hour?

The best answer is certainly – both. But if you can’t do both then certainly the fable is the best medium to get your idea across. Marketing is key to get the interest. Then only the depth of your understanding will come to light when people will start asking questions.

It is amazing how a fable can be a wonderful educational and marketing tool. Our ancestors new about the educational. Why don’t we use it more for marketing our ideas?

When do you start counting stories around?

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Social networks dynamics like you have never seen them

The New-York Times research lab is developing an application that allows to visualize the dynamics of social networks. How some people serve as linchpins for the diffusion of information.

Have a look at

http://www.nytlabs.com/projects/cascade.html

there is a video that shows better than any words how that works. It is astounding. The information diffusion cascade is shown in real time. You can understand how it spreads (or not). No doubt we are now in the midst of the Fourth Revolution!

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Participate to worldwide competitions to leverage the collective cognitive capability!

Have you heard of kaggle.com?

It is a site to run workdwide competitions on data mining – how to use data to predict trends and other useful results.

For example, it has run competitions about predicting whether people will attend hospital next year based on their current medical history; how the condition of HIV infected people will evolve based on a limited set of current physiological data. Ford has posted a challenge to help devise an algorithm to decide if the driver is alert…

By leveraging the collective cognitive capabilities of humankind, clever solutions are found quickly that would have taken years and millions of dollars to develop. Winners get recognition by being invited to present their result – or can get 3,000,000$ by solving the problem of hospital admission prediction and thus anticipate the degradation of the condition of the patients.

Ready to participate to the Fourth Revolution? – put your brains at work for the best in one of these number-crunching competitions.

Right now you can participate in the Wikipedia prediction challenge – develop an algorithm to predict how many edits an editor will make in the next few months based on his contribution history – and beat years of Wikipedia internal data-crunching! Ready?

 

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Soft Power Leadership: what about a book?

What do you think about a book on “Soft Power Leadership?”

Following my previous blog, I’ve been thinking about this concept for a while and I believe it could be my next book.

It is so obvious that what distinguishes successful leaders today lies in soft power. And while the new form of leadership I describe in the book, “mutual learning leadership” is still very typical of the Fourth Revolution, “soft power” seems to be a great concept to describe what makes specific individuals remarkable. And incredibly successful.

Because it is a mix of personal and inter-personal mastery, quiet, soft power is really a great way to describe those personalities and leadership styles.

What do you think of the idea? You contribution and reaction (positive or negative) is welcome!

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Soft power – the key to leadership in the Collaborative Age

“Soft power” is a concept which was invented by Joseph Nye in 1990 in the context of international relations.

The Future of Power by Joseph Nye
The Future of Power by Joseph Nye

Here is the definition of “soft power” by Joseph Nye – a definition given in a 2004 article of the Harvard Business Review:

To lead is to help a group define and achieve a common purpose. There are various types and levels of leadership, but all have in common a relationship with followers. Thus leadership and power are inextricably intertwined. I will argue below that many leadership skills such as creating a vision, communicating it, attracting and choosing able people, delegating, and forming coalitions depend upon what I call soft power.

What is astounding is that this definition applies equally to leadership in an organization and to leadership in the world.

For me, effective leadership beyond the Fourth Revolution is grounded in soft power. What do you think?

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