How Happiness May Depend a Lot on Individual Opportunity

In this Quartz post ‘The quest to measure happiness has missed a key metric—and it’s more important than money‘ the author analyzes in detail how happiness is measured and the problems with this measurement.

Satisfaction is grossly correlated with income, in particular when it comes to satisfying our basic needs (see enclosed graph from the Economist). There is still a very wide spread for the same wealth. In richer countries, however, other parameters appear to become important.

The post stresses the importance of Opportunity as a visibly good discriminator for social happiness between countries. Some very rich countries only give their citizens very limited opportunities, and this would be a cause for lower happiness and revolt.

It still puts some limits to this single parameter, recognizing that “A person’s happiness, and her perception of success or failure, ultimately depends on what measures the individual values over the course of her life—whether that’s providing for a family, fighting climate change, or writing poetry. Wealth is nothing without the opportunity provided by good health to live free of pain and worry. And opportunity itself is important, but is it—or freedom, or love—paramount?

I do believe that individual freedom and opportunity is an essential parameter for happiness – but it must be supported by a social structure that accepts failure and supports individuals through major problems.

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How the History of Murphy’s Law is an Inspiration

The Quartz column ‘Murphy’s Law is totally misunderstood and is in fact a call to excellence‘ and the linked pages on the history of Murphy’s law provide an interesting insight into the history and initial meaning of that law.

The gee-whiz experiment, around which Murphy’s law was conceived

It all happened around some hazardous tests conducted at the time of the sound barrier breaking effort. The original meaning would have been rather more aligned with a risk analysis approach: “When a reporter asked about the project’s inherent danger, Stapp allegedly replied that the team was guided by a principle he called “Murphy’s Law.” As Stapp put it, errors and malfunctions were an inescapable reality of any undertaking. Instead of using that fact as reason to quit, the engineers used it as motivation to excel. The only way to avoid catastrophe was to envision every possible scenario and plan against it

Of course this is not contradictory with the current understanding of Murphy’s law ‘Anything that can go wrong will go wrong’, but it takes a more positive prevention meaning. Murphy’s law is in fact an inspiration to consider all possible failure modes in a design, would it be a technical system or any other human endeavor.

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How Artificial Intelligence Needs to Be Regulated

In July there was a lot of media coverage of the declarations of Elon Musk about Artificial Intelligence in front of a US Governors Assembly. See for example Fortune’s ‘Elon Musk says that Artificial Intelligence is the Greatest Threat We Face as a Civilization‘.

According to Elon Musk “AI’s a rare case where we need to be proactive in regulation, instead of reactive. Because by the time we are reactive with AI regulation, it’s too late,” he remarked. Musk then drew a contrast between AI and traditional targets for regulation, saying “AI is a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilization, in a way that car accidents, airplane crashes, faulty drugs, or bad food were not.

His point is that if unregulated, AI might learn to manipulate to achieve goals that would be harmful to (some) humans. Elon Musk has access to the latest AI developments and it might be difficult to understand those capabilities. In any case, his warning should be heard and regulation might be a good thing. At the end of the day, AI might be used as a weapon and weapons are generally regulated. In any case it would not harm to have a regulatory approach to it. The challenge of the safety certification of AI-driven objects could be the right way to tackle the issue.

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How Tax Systems Evolve in the Collaborative Age

As I was looking at a EU document about VAT in all European countries, the historical tables have caught my attention (pages 18 sqq). They show invariably a substantial increase in VAT rates in the last decades. In most countries, this tax has become the main income stream of governments. In South East Asia, Singapore and Malaysia have just introduced the equivalent GST, and it will soon in introduced in India at a substantial rate.

GST or VAT is becoming increasingly important. This tax is non progressive, it applies to poor and rich at the same time; actually percentage-wise rich people will generally pay less if they consume less than their income. At the same time, income tax importance has generally stagnated or touch less people (in France, less than 40% of taxpayers pay income tax). Similarly, corporate tax shows a strong tendency to diminish in all countries nowadays. VAT/GST increasingly becomes the main income stream of governments.

I believe that this evolution reflect deep transformations related to the Fourth Revolution, without being quite sure about the cause. In a way, it is a problem because tax systems become generally less progressive (increasing tax with revenue) and this increases inequalities. At the same time it follows the fact that income might not reflect value and that final consumption might be a better indicator and taxable source nowadays.

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How the Computer Disappears as a Computer

In the Verge’s column ‘The disappearing computer – Tech was once always in your way. Soon, it will be almost invisible‘, Walt Mossberg makes the point that with the advent of wearables and the pervasion of computing power in our lives, computers will become invisible.

Instead of the old fashioned desktop with its keyboard and screen, or tablet with its finger-touch interface; computers will be where we won’t see them anymore. And they will have even more influence in our lives.

I expect that one end result of all this work will be that the technology, the computer inside all these things, will fade into the background. In some cases, it may entirely disappear, waiting to be activated by a voice command, a person entering the room, a change in blood chemistry, a shift in temperature, a motion. Maybe even just a thought. Your whole home, office and car will be packed with these waiting computers and sensors. But they won’t be in your way, or perhaps even distinguishable as tech devices.

This is ambient computing, the transformation of the environment all around us with intelligence and capabilities that don’t seem to be there at all.

This of course gives quite some food for thought. There will be advantages and drawbacks from this situation. And I guess more advantages than we can envisage today.

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How To Decide on the True Importance of a Decision

We take multiple decisions daily. Some small, some really important. How can we discriminate? It is quite simple actually – those that are important are those that have significant consequences. And often, long term consequences.

Reviewing the potential consequences of a decision is a good way to weight their importance and the amount of time and effort that needs to be spent taking the decision. It is an excellent way to discriminate where to put the emphasis.

Unfortunately we all encounter in our lives people that get that priority in reverse. They spend huge amount of time and effort agonizing over decisions that have very little consequences. And then, maybe out of exhaustion, they don’t consider properly those really important decisions.

Think first about the consequences of the decision you are about to make. Depending on those consequences, allocate the right effort to the decision.

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How People That Move Beyond Conformism Are Hated by Others

Those that remain conformists and stayed at their place have a tendency to hate those that have moved on to new things. It is a constant law.

Samuel Maverick
Samuel Maverick

My guess is that this happens in great part because of jealousy, added to the fact that a group of people always tends to reject weirdos that do not follow the conformist behavior.

Of course there are many examples of mavericks being finally hailed at heroes but that always comes after many years of rejection and hatred. And that concerns only a minor fringe of renegades.

Interestingly, ‘maverick’ as a term comes from Samuel Maverick who refused to brand his cattle in 19th century Texas and was thus considered badly by his neighbours.

So if you feel strong rejection from the social body surrounding you, it may be because you are a maverick. Don’t let yourself be impressed. That’s part of the game. And move on!…

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Towards Office-Less Organizations

Since 5 years I have been operating my small consulting company globally without offices (why pay the overhead when we spend most of our time at clients’ offices?!?). It always seems strange to acquaintances, but that’s the way many businesses run today. In this example, ‘The company behind WordPress is closing its gorgeous San Francisco office because its employees never show up‘.

Working from Home

Working from home or on the road is the new normal. I hope that architects will take into account this requirement for home offices a bit more systematically. Traditional businesses would need to notice. In large organizations I still find people who can’t work remotely using video conferencing tools on their laptops (or even still using desktops!). What a waste!

I am not saying that having a co-located team is not appropriate in certain instances. For example I am deeply convinced that continuous team geographical colocation is an essential success factor in project execution and probably also in certain instances of creative endeavors. But in most cases, temporary offices can be rented out when they are needed. And office space needs to be more flexible – for example project team co-location can be more effective outside the traditional organization offices.

Flexible offices are the future, as is remote work across time zones and locations. Traditional office spaces are due for obsolescence. And this will happen sooner than some might expect!

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Why Protectionism Is A Transient Illusion

The international political stage has been shaken in the past few month by populist claims for protectionism. This theme has encountered substantial success, most visibly in the USA. It is but an illusion with the progress towards the Collaborative Age. And these claims won’t stand for long in particular if protectionism is really implemented.

I know of a live example in Malaysia in the automotive industry. The country has tried to develop an indigenous car maker, Proton and implemented substantial barriers to the import of foreign-made cars. Within a decade, Proton cars were substandard and lagging the modern progress of technology. Once another manufacturer setup to build locally modern cars, the local manufacturer crumbled.

This was because an industry in a protected environment will have no incentive to improve and invest, and will eventually collapse while the rest of the world progresses. Protectionism can only possibly work on a temporary basis to develop some new capability.

In today’s ever faster world, protectionism is an illusion. Those experiments that are attempted will soon enough demonstrate the inadequacy of the concept. That does not mean policies should not address those affected by the transformation of the economy. But maintaining illusory protections will create eventually a worst fate, only later.

The Protectionism Illusion won’t last long.

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How to Overcome the Project Execution Paradox

The Project Execution Paradox is this: the more you advance in a project, the more you know about it, and at the same time the least degrees of freedom you have to influence it.

It is a close cousin of the sunk cost syndrome, which leads us to continue on absurd projects because of what had been spent already.

There are several techniques to overcome this paradox. They are mostly aimed to minimize commitment and maximize knowledge early in the project. They are routinely used without people realizing their ultimate aim:

  • create an explicit gate-based decision path that allows to review the project case during the development of the team’s knowledge and understanding of it, and possibly decide to stop it (or to go back to the drawing boards) before too much gets committed,
  • the ‘lean startup’ path that develops the project with small commitments of resources of energy while maximizing learning and the number of possible iterations,
  • All planning approaches which aim at dedicated resources to increasing knowledge before large expenditures are being made.

Whatever the approach, the paradox will remain and surprises will occur during project execution. By being aware of the Project Execution Paradox we can try to anticipate better and be prepared for its expression.

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How to Identify Groupthink

General Patton said “If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking“. He was probably weary of GroupThink.

Patton Thinking

In any case I tend to agree: if there is too much agreement on something not trivial, something is wrong. We don’t have the right people in the room or they feel compelled to agree with the majority’s view.

I like to be the one offering a different approach or opinion. I know it takes guts to tell a high powered executive that has obviously flawed plans what people don’t dare tell him straight. It’s risky in some organizations. Maybe that’s why I became an independent consultant.

But remember: if people agree too easily on a controversial subject, something’s wrong in the organization.

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How ‘What To Do Next’ Has Become The Key Question

Seth Godin in his post ‘What to do next‘ explains how this has become the key question nowadays. Still we should not forget to enjoy the present moment!

what_next“What next used to be a question answered by your boss or your clients.

With so many opportunities and so many constraints, successfully picking what to do next is your moment of highest leverage. It deserves more time and attention than most people give it.”

I tend to agree with this analysis – people do not spend enough time deciding to change themselves and their environment, and would prefer continuity. At the same time we also need to spend enough time enjoying the present moment and not always wondering what’s next. This balance is difficult to establish at the right level.

Maybe being more in the present moment will give clues about what to change next. What about your next?

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