Category: Change

How Navigation Apps Are Changing Municipal Traffic Policies

This post ‘Navigation Apps Changed the Politics of Traffic‘ explains how municipalities and local governments are adapting to the rise of navigation apps.

The issue is that those apps cater for the needs of the drivers, and not for the needs of the wider community. “Driver-first traffic “fixes,” even with the best of intentions, have deleterious effects on transportation networks overall.” There is a collective price of having each driver optimise its own route. “One widely cited 2001 paper by computer scientists at Cornell found that a network of “user-optimized” drivers can experience travel times equivalent to what a network of “system-optimized” drivers would experience with twice as many cars. Transport engineers call the difference between selfish and social equilibria the “price of anarchy.””

There seem to be some debate on the actual effect of those apps, and whether the algorithms also include some more collective constraints (one can remark for example that on two different phone, they may not give the same itinerary, showing that they try to spread congestion).

In any case as apps encourage the usage of smaller roads not normally used for transit, local governments act in restricting speed and transit possibilities in those smaller roads normally not planned for transit traffic. This has given a different priority to municipal policies. Other possible solutions is to install tolls for transit traffic or otherwise price mobility differently, or to change the overall traffic patterns.

It is just the start of the change of our urban landscape and mobility brought by real-time navigation apps. Expect physical changes and changes of usage.

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How We Need to Remember that Extreme Stress Creates Diamonds

I love this quote “In times of extreme stress, just remember that pressure makes diamonds.” I’m not sure who to attribute it to, but it’s quite inspiring.

This serves to remind us that we are often mainly shaped by hard times rather than smooth times. Therefore albeit difficult in the present moment, highly stressful situations will transform us.

Hopefully, of course, this transformation will be for the better (extreme stress and pressure can also create stuff that is less nice than diamonds!).

Still it is a good reminder that we can get positively transformed by periods of intense pressure and stress. Keep it up!

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How We Seem to Be Getting Collectively Sadder and Angrier

This post has really caught my attention: ‘Pop Songs are Getting Sadder and Angrier‘. It includes some graphs measuring average positiveness and negativeness of songs over time that show that songs get on average slower and gloomier.

Billie Eilish, revelation of the year with a rather gloomy repertoire

And it is true that the latest emerging artists seem to have on average a repertoire that is quite more depressed and gloomy than before. It would seem to be a deep trend that would seem to be going on since at least the 1960s.

If we suppose that it is a reflection of our overall societal mood, it’s rather not a good sign on the overall positiveness of our society at least in the western English-speaking world.

What is your feeling about the surrounding negativeness?

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How Having the Right Type of Competition is Great

I like Simon Sinek’s argument ‘How having the right kind of rival can help you thrive in a changing world‘.

“By identifying a Worthy Rival and looking at their strengths and abilities, we can keep improving and innovating“.

According to Simon Sinek, to really understand this we also need to understand we live in an infinite game and not just in a finite game. In a finite game, competition for limited resources means the loser gets less. In an infinite game, there can be mutual benefits based on an expanding playground, with everyone winning.

Having a worthy rival is essential for improvement and progress. If that happens in a fair and almost cooperative manner it is the recipe for great mutual success. However I observe that too many people and corporations still view the world as finite and competition as a war where competitors should get destroyed.

I am myself trying often to get into a positive relationship with competitors, but I must admit that I’ve been often told that it was too naive.

Well I’ll continue until I find a worthy rival with an open infinite mindset which will help me – and me help him – get to greater heights.

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How Low Interest Rates is Not a New Situation and May be the Future too

As you may have noticed I love to put things in historical perspective. This excellent Daily Reckoning post ‘5,000 Years of Interest Rates‘ just shows how the current situation is not new. It even quotes statements from the late 19th century that expressed despair at the low real interest rates of the time.

There is even more: it would appear that the historical trend would be towards lower real interest rates: “Despite temporary stabilizations such as the period between 1550–1640, 1820–1850 or in fact 1950–1980 — global real rates have shown a persistent downward trend over the past five centuries… This downward trend has persisted throughout the historical gold, silver, mixed bullion and fiat monetary regimes… and long preceded the emergence of modern central banks.”

There is a view thus that interest rates should continue to fall down unless another period of exceptional economic expansion kicks-in again (which could be still be possible with the reach of the Collaborative Age).

Historical perspectives are always inspiring. Of course the future is never quite the extrapolation of the past, but one can only observe this ongoing trend towards lower interest rates, that may also be the consequence of more available capital globally.

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Why We Need to Work on Unfashionable Problems

I am getting fed up by the hype around fashionable ‘Artificial Intelligence’. Everything should be Artificially Intelligent nowadays (ref my previous post ‘How Automation Should Not Be Marketed as Intelligent‘). Thus I very much like this post of Paul Graham on ‘Fashionable Problems‘. His point is that too many people work on the latest fashionable technology or problem, and too little on other important aspects.

“Even though lots of people have worked hard in the field, only a small fraction of the space of possibilities has been explored, because they’ve all worked on similar things. Even the smartest, most imaginative people are surprisingly conservative when deciding what to work on. People who would never dream of being fashionable in any other way get sucked into working on fashionable problems.”

On this other hand this consideration also shows that there are great opportunities in working on other things than the latest fashion (although of course it may be much more difficult to get funded). And this is what I like to consider: non-conventional people that follow their interest irrespective of the latest fashion. Paul Graham reminds us actually that “The best protection against getting drawn into working on the same things as everyone else may be to genuinely love what you’re doing. Then you’ll continue to work on it even if you make the same mistake as other people and think that it’s too marginal to matter.”

Thus, do not worry too much about the latest fashion on tech. There are so many other areas where progress would be profitable for humankind. Don’t let yourself be deterred. Find what you’re passionate about and go for it!

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How Automation Should Not Be Marketed as Intelligent

There is a lot being written these days about putting some limits to the hype of ‘Artificial Intelligence’. In this interesting post on Forbes ‘Automation Is Not Intelligence‘, the point is made that while calling stuff ‘AI-enabled’ is trendy, it does nothing to create more intelligence!

In particular, the article makes the point that automation is not intelligence. Increased automation fosters productivity, but it is only to make repeatable dumb tasks quicker and more efficiently. However there seem to be a trend to mix both aspects in current marketing.

“Vendors that push automation solutions as intelligent are potentially hurting the industry. If customers are lead to believe that various automation solutions are what they can expect out of AI systems and humans are required to add intelligent components on their own to call their systems intelligent, then the industry is heading for a rapid correction.”

The issue is of course that there is excessive hype around everything artificially intelligent (supposedly). “While there is a lot of great, new innovation that’s pushing the industry forward towards more intelligent systems capable of many of the challenging areas that have previously not been able to be solved due to extreme complexity or the need for human labor, there are just as many companies who are using the term AI as more of a marketing ploy or a way to raise money.”

There will be a correction in the industry when people realize what are really the limits of ‘Artificial Intelligence’ technology (read this other interesting post ‘It’s not Artificial Intelligence, it’s a new level of automation‘). Let’s not call everything intelligent, for the moment not a lot is really except humans.

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How We Get Tracked by Our Phones and by People We Don’t Imagine

We get permanently tracked by our phones… and they don’t even try to hide it! Like me you probably receive on a regular basis a Google Maps recap of the previous month. At the start I found those emails quite creepy, now I guess I got used to them.

My location data for January 2020

Nevertheless this excellent New York Time visualization ‘ONE NATION, TRACKED: an investigation into the smartphone tracking industry‘ shows the extend it takes when applied to the entire population.

The most interesting part is that although the dataset of the location of 12 million phones provided for research is supposed to be anonymous, it proves quite easy to associate a phone with an individual based on his location pattern. Actually it is not quite possible to anonymise a data set of locations.

And the scariest bit – the data did not originate from a phone network provider or a GAFA. It “originated from a location data company, one of dozens quietly collecting precise movements using software slipped onto mobile phone apps. You’ve probably never heard of most of the companies — and yet to anyone who has access to this data, your life is an open book.“

I encourage you to read and watch the infographics of this paper to really understand what we have all accepted to get into. It would be quite easy for non scrupulous users of the database – or some surveillance state – to know exactly what we are up to.

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How the Paperclip-Maximiser Syndrome Has Become a Meme of AI

Have you heard about the paperclip-maximiser syndrome? It is a viral game and is used as a meme for negative consequences of a too powerful Artificial Intelligence. If this AI’s only objective is to improve paperclip production it may finally exploit all of Earth’s resources and beyond doing just that – destroying everything else in its path. This Wired Column explains the idea: ‘The Way the World Ends: Not with a Bang But a Paperclip‘. (an alternative AI meme seems to be the strawberry-picking AI transforming the Earth in a single strawberry plantation)

In this interesting speech ‘Dude, you broke the future!‘, Charlie Stross a known Science Fiction author refers to the Elon Musk feared singularity exactly as the “paper syndrome”… and then points wisely that “Musk isn’t paying enough attention. Consider his own companies. Tesla is a battery maximizer—an electric car is a battery with wheels and seats. SpaceX is an orbital payload maximizer, driving down the cost of space launches in order to encourage more sales for the service it provides. Solar City is a photovoltaic panel maximizer. And so on. All three of Musk’s very own slow AIs are based on an architecture that is designed to maximize return on shareholder investment, even if by doing so they cook the planet the shareholders have to live on. (But if you’re Elon Musk, that’s okay: you plan to retire on Mars.)” So it seems that Elon Musk is exactly doing what he fears AI would do.

This all serves to remind us that any “intelligence” should not pursue a single goal but a balanced set of goals, because maximizing a single indicator is always at the detriment of the overall balance. This is true in management, and could possibly take unexpected proportions when AI gets involved.

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How Mindfulness Requires Compassion

Following up from the previous post ‘How We Need to Remember that Mindfulness is Difficult and Messy‘ and the excellent post by Leo Babauta ‘The Honest Guide to Mindfulness‘, the author underlines an essential element: the need for compassion – for oneself and for others.

I like the conclusion of the post: “Mindfulness is only part of the work. The work also requires compassion — for yourself and others. It requires vulnerability and the ability to open your heart. It requires honesty and the willingness to face things. It requires being willing to love things as they are, without needing to control things. It requires letting go of what you think things should be like, letting go of what you think you should have or shouldn’t have. The work requires you to be willing to be curious, to be open, to remain in not knowing.”

Mindfulness is a journey and to be successful, a measure of acceptance of oneself and others is needed. It is actually quite a necessary condition to progress beyond a certain point. Be more compassionate to yourselves and to others!

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How We Need to Remember that Mindfulness is Difficult and Messy

This excellent post by Leo Babauta ‘The Honest Guide to Mindfulness‘ reminds us that mindfulness – a highly trendy concept – is difficult and messy.

“If you’re new to mindfulness, it’s easy to get the wrong idea from all the marketing you’ll find online. Images of people at complete peace with the world and themselves, full of bliss, simply by sitting still and meditating for a few minutes … they are beautiful images, but they don’t tell the whole truth.”

It is hard to be mindful, and it will take substantial practice and exercise to reach a satisfactory mindfulness stage. Leo Babauta also underlines that it is very uncomfortable as it will real things you’d probably prefer to remain hidden.

This also means that probably much less people have reached a satisfactory level of mindfulness than what they advertise. Difficult is always filters out those that are really motivated and ready to put the effort. Much less people are probably truly mindful than what they say.

If you want to embrace mindfulness, be ready for quite a tough journey of introspection and seeing the world differently, which can be quite unsettling. Still it is quite a beneficial experience, just fasten your seat-belt!

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How to Explain Covid-19 Blindness

In this post “COVID-19’s General Blindness is Also a Journalistic Failure“, Frederic Filloux explains the reasons for a lack of anticipation of journalism on the epidemics.

The observation is that while the possibilities of a pandemics were exposed in many scientific publications and widely available, journalists have not raised the alarm early. Of course this blindness is not limited to journalists, but they could have played a significant role.

According to Frederic Filloux this can be explained by loss of in-house expertise due to newsroom shrinking in the current economic situation of the press. When there is a situation, external experts are asked to help, but the very possibility of detecting a situation is lost.

According to him “Newsrooms harboring experts — in house, or more realistically, on retainers — would have been more likely to read low-noise signals or even connect the dots of apparently unrelated facts, to put together a true picture of what is unfolding.“

It is well known that it is always difficult to detect low-noise signals and raise the awareness of a wider group. But in that case, the low noise signal was apparently not even identified, which is a concern.

What could be the solution? Frederic Filloux is currently supporting the development of an AI-based content editor, and is quite confident that such solutions could help. In my mind, in an ever-accelerating world, keeping more emphasis on memory and long term approaches is also important: countries that had been exposed to SARS 15 years ago did remember what had to be done.

Lack of memory and general loss of expertise in groups that could relay the issues we are facing are certainly important culprits.

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