Category: Institutions and Revolutions

How Traditional Decision-Making Tools Are Not Fit for the Collaborative Age

In his excellent book (in French) ‘Bienvenue en incertitude!: Principes d’action pour un monde de surprises‘ (Welcome in uncertainty: principles of action in a world full of surprises), Philippe Silberzahn explains that the decision tools that we are using have note changed since the 1970s while the world has become radically uncertain.

“Predictions become inevitably victim, one day or the other, of an unprecedented event that makes them obsolete. However the decision-making tools we use have not changed. They are based on a predictive paradigm. They date back to the 1970s for most of them and are anchored in the industrial revolution civilization born 150 years ago“. And for sure, most of the decision-making tools we use are based on a linear evolution assumption. And the invention of spreadsheets have worsened the situation, as it is so easy to compute extrapolations over quarters and years!

Take the typical business plan for example: how many of them consider really discontinuous events and events that change paradigms? In a world of complexity we really need to question what decision-making tools we use on a daily basis.

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How Amazon Bets on a Future Speech-Driven AI

As exposed in this interesting Bloomberg article ‘Making Sense of Amazon’s Alexa Spaghetti Strategy‘, it seems that Amazon has decided that the future of home-based AI will be driven by speech rather than other interfaces – and it is driving hard suppliers to adapt their hardware accordingly.

Although speech is the most natural communication channel, I am still quite reluctant. First, I am not yet ready to have at home a device which function is to listen to all that is being said to try to figure out if something has been requested. Also, I believe that speech has a lot of impediments: accents in foreign languages, substantial chances of misunderstanding, etc. On the other hand, it may be quite convenient to give instructions by speaking as long as they can be clearly understood and it avoid having to grab some hardware such as phone or tablet to give instructions.

In summary, I am not yet ready to give voice instructions to my microwave to cook my spaghettis, but I am interested to see if that’s really the future world we will live in. At least Amazon seems to believe that it is. Interesting times!

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How Non-Compete Constraints on Employees Are Non-Productive

There is always a heated debate on the interest for an organization to introduce non-compete clauses in its employment contracts. I truly believe that those clauses are counter-productive.

As an aside to an interesting post explaining why Facebook’s business model is flawed and won’t change ‘“Do no harm” to Facebook’s business model’, Frederic Filloux quotes “A Stanford professor told me once that the absence of a non-compete clause in California’s labor laws has been a key factor to the rise of Silicon Valley against the startup ecosystem of the East Coast.” And indeed, it appears that California does not allow those clauses, whereas in the rest of the US and of the world they tend to be widespread (in France their impact is limited by the fact that the employer must compensate for the application of the clause, which makes it onerous).

I believe those clauses are stupid, in part because they stop innovation, they are difficult to apply in reality, and they create all sort of resentment between the employee and the employer. They should be limited to issues of commercial nature. In the collaborative Age, any impediment to the creation of teams to innovate and solve complex projects should be removed for the system to be effective.

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How Skim Reading Changes our Ways of Thinking

Skim reading is the new normal. We scroll down on content and often do not take the time to read in detail what is written. Even worse, we often just don’t read at all! (see my post ‘How Most People Sharing Links or Commenting Don’t Read the Posts‘). In this excellent Guardian piece, ‘Skim reading is the new normal. The effect on society is profound‘, the issue is analysed further. The author concludes that we need a new literacy for the digital age.

The point developed in this paper is that a specific learned capability of humans is getting deeply modified. As a result, “the result is that less attention and time will be allocated to slower, time-demanding deep reading processes, like inference, critical analysis and empathy, all of which are indispensable to learning at any age“.

A specific focus in the article is about our diminishing empathy: “The subtle atrophy of critical analysis and empathy affects us all. It affects our ability to navigate a constant bombardment of information. It incentivizes a retreat to the most familiar silos of unchecked information, which require and receive no analysis, leaving us susceptible to false information and demagoguery.”

One interesting aspect is that it seems that reading on screen (even on a Kindle) compared to physically handling a book creates less attention and more skimming.

Anyway, for sure the younger generations are learning differently from older generations and might not develop exactly the same approaches. I am not sure if that’s good or bad, but it will certainly be different. Exciting times!

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How An Appeal Process Should be Guaranteed When Your Account Gets Cancelled by a Major Internet Player

Monopolistic services such as Facebook, Amazon, Google have to strike a fine balance between fighting abusive usage of their services (of which there is a lot), and providing the opportunity to access them to all. Recently a few papers about Amazon switching off the account of some authors publishing on the platform have raise the issue in this particular remit: ‘Amazon self-published authors: Our books were banned for no reason‘ – and I am particularly sensitive to that particular area, being active in publishing.

The capability offered by Amazon to self-publish is an amazing opportunity for would-be authors. It is possible to publish without going through the selection criteria of publishers, do it electronically only and not have to bother about hardcopies. Some self-publishing authors have become professional, deriving significant income from their books. It has created vocations and allowed many people to write and publish that would not have otherwise.

As with any system there are ways to abuse it – part of the compensation provided by Amazon is based on the number of pages read by readers of the e-book. There are ways to inflate this number. And Amazon will ban abusers… and maybe some that do not intend, or do not abuse the system, but have a usage pattern that is too close.

The issue here is not that Amazon or the likes cancels the account of abusing users – they should do it – but that if you have not abused the system there are no clear ways to appeal. It is very difficult to reach the client support service. It is the same for other services as Facebook, etc.

This situation is quite similar to being condemned without having had a fair hearing. Dominating internet services should be mandated to set up appeal processes where users can raise their issue, if needed publicly, so that they can receive due consideration. The availability appeal process should be mandatory and this right protected by law.

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How the Happiness Industry Influences Our Lives

“Being happy” is at the same time a wish and a mantra for most, and somewhat of an injunction in the current society. And the happiness, self-help domain has become a major industry with much presence in our lives. In the new book ‘Happycratie – How the Happiness Industry Has Taken Control Of Our Lives’ (in French) authors Eva Illouz and Edgar Cabanas denounce an industry with an excessive influence.

I find the take of the book probably a bit excessive – comparing the happiness industry to some sort of totalitarian organisation, a way to create power – however it does provoke the question of the influence of this industry in our lives.

It is quite clear that it is an industry – one needs only to browse through the relevant alleys in bookshops and consider the amounts of proposed activities around the general topic of happiness.

The point of the authors is that happiness has changed from a transgressive request in the 18th and 19th century to something that is now borne by the state and organisations. Everyone is claiming for happiness, and at some stage the social compact seems to change to the state providing happiness against social rest.

There certainly should not be any tyranny of happiness. Still, seeking happiness is certainly a quest that many of us follow because it does help us. Therefore, we need to take happiness as a personal goal while being careful to avoid any coercion associated with it.

Extracts in French are available in this ‘The Conversation’ post ‘Sois Heureux et Tais Toi‘.

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How Colleges in the US Turn to Randomness for Assigning Roommates

To run contrary to an annoying trend in US colleges with students turning to like-minded students and shunning anything that might them feel uneasy (refer for example to our post ‘How Overprotecting from Different Points of View is a Moral Hazard‘), some colleges have turned to assigning roommates randomly to favour encounters and diversity. The title of this Quartz post says it all: ‘The life-changing benefits of living with a random roommate in college‘.

Increasingly students were choosing their roommate prior to year start through social networks. To curb this approach which united like-minded students, “at Duke, the roommate-selection process is back to being entirely governed by the university. Roommate pairings are made largely at random, while taking into account some lifestyle preferences or needs, like sleep patterns, disabilities, or medical conditions.”

The paper mentions a vast array of studies showing the decisive influence of the roommate – for better or for worse. “If college roommates can worsen your bad habits but also open your horizons, it’s no wonder that colleges have a stake in making sure that the experience benefits people as much as possible. And there’s a special authenticity that can only come from randomness; from the beauty of two complete strangers sharing the roller-coaster ride that is freshman year of college, for better or for worse.”

I find that this way of adding an element of randomness in the lives of student is quite a worthwhile experiment. It might not please students or parents – but certainly will create life-changing experiences.

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How Algorithms Are More Effective Than Human Decisions – Even If Bias Still Needs to be Managed

In a counterpoint to the ideas represented by the “Weapons of Math Destruction” concept – how algorithms could reinforce inequality and prejudice (refer to our post ‘How Algorithms Can Become Weapons of Math Destruction‘), the HBR paper ‘Want Less-Biased Decisions? Use Algorithms‘ discusses the fact that algorithms lead to less bias.

“Critiques and investigations [about the perverse effects of algorithms] are often insightful and illuminating, and they have done a good job in disabusing us of the notion that algorithms are purely objective. But there is a pattern among these critics, which is that they rarely ask how well the systems they analyze would operate without algorithms. And that is the most relevant question for practitioners and policy makers: How do the bias and performance of algorithms compare with the status quo? Rather than simply asking whether algorithms are flawed, we should be asking how these flaws compare with those of human beings.”

The paper then quotes a number of studies and papers showing that automation reduces dramatically mistakes and some biases in human decision-making. An effort still needs to be made to ensure algorithms are not biased, however following public awareness a lot of activities are happening in that field, including publication of the source code of some key algorithms. The paper thus rather takes a positive view on the subject. Let’s keep a tab to see how it evolves over the next few months!

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How Easily Groups Can Create Language Barriers and Why They Need to Be Overcome

Building on our previous post ‘How Each Social Group Has Its Own Vernacular Tongue‘, it is astounding how groups can quickly create language barriers with the outside world. It creates a sense of identity. In her post ‘You say Tomato, I say Tomato… When Language is the Enemy‘, Valeria Maltoni explains how that can create difficult situations.

The solution is to make sure people agree on the meaning of words and acronyms, and try to get the group to explain its activities to an outsider, preferably a client. “Lack of a common language impacts a common understanding of values and culture. When nobody is on the same page, the context shifts based on where you are.”

“A common language is key to creating the environment that delivers consistent experiences“. Creating this common language is often the first task of a consulting project, or an entity integration project. Let’s not be impressed by the language barrier, we all know how to learn foreign languages. It comes quickly!

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How to Address the Challenge of Measuring Personal Productivity in the Collaborative Age

Following up from our previous post on the mystery of overall economic productivity, let’s address the issue of personal productivity. This is issue is addressed in a rather long post by Seth Godin ‘Business/busyness‘.

busynessFor people immersed in the new economy, the concept is quite difficult: “If you had a factory job, it wasn’t your job to worry about productivity. Somebody else was in charge. You did what you were told, all day, every day. Now, more than ever, you’re likely to be running a team, managing a project or deciding on your own agenda as a free agent. Time is just about all you’ve got to spend.”

In any case, just keeping busy defeats the purpose of productivity. “Busy is not your job. Busy doesn’t get you what you seek. Busy isn’t the point. Value creation is.

You only get today once. Your team does too. How will you spend it?”

Seth Godin then goes into explaining that productivity being the measure of output produced by the time taken to produce it, it all comes to measuring the value created. And it’s where is gets somewhat difficult. While “likes and friends are not an output“, on the contrary, meaningful conversations with team members in your project have value and require time. Thus, measuring actual productivity is difficult. Are we spending time on bureaucratic tasks or actual tasks that create value to a client?

Measuring productivity, financially or otherwise, remains a major challenge even at personal level. However at that level, we can pick and choose the measurement yard we prefer: money, relationship quality, or maintaining our garden.

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How to Explain the Productivity Gap Mystery

Productivity in the Collaborative Age is a major mystery. Apparently, from the economists perspective, it would seem that the productivity improvement rate has dramatically dropped in developed countries since the 1970s. On the other hand, we definitely manage to do more in a day than before, in great part thanks to the support provided by our GPS, the communication capability of our phones and all sorts of productivity tools we have been given.

From my perspective, there would then be two explanations to this apparent contradiction: either the measurement of value created is flawed, or while some of us have dramatically increased their productivity, others have dramatically lowered their’s.

I tend to believe that there is something wrong with the measurement of value created, because I observe that a lot of the services offered by modern technology serve to diminish the cost of services while improving the service itself (which has value), or even create services that have no value thanks to connections created. Of course, we should not dismiss the hypothesis that social networks have also diminished the productivity of part of the population, however this has to be compared to watching TV which also involved a lot of time previously (but was less pervasive in every location of our daily life).

However, this productivity issue still shows that income tends to diminish for the amount of work performed, since productivity is also linked to the value created.

This goes back to the issue of GDP as good measurement of economic health. Those measurements of the Industrial Age will have to be revamped soon because they are becoming increasingly obsolete.

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How DIfficult It Is To Replace GDP by an Appropriate Wealth Creation Measurement

Gross Domestic Product has its limitations and they become increasingly apparent as we enter the Collaborative Age. In particular, it does not measure the value created by all digital services including collaborative creation. This subject seems to have come back to the fore early 2018. A series of Quartz papers on the subject gives some insight: ‘One of the world’s largest banks wants to rip up the economic rulebook and downplay GDP‘, ‘Our obsession with GDP will lead to madness—but there are alternatives‘, ‘An ambitious project to measure the wealth of nations shows how GDP is a deceptive gauge of progress‘, etc.

It has always been clear that GDP is an Industrial Age measurement with strong limitations. Yet it is a convenient summary of economic health. As we move into the Collaborative Age it needs to be replaced, but we are still unsure how or why. “One answer might be GDP-B, which is an ambitious project being developed by economists at MIT (pdf). It’s a broader metric to measure the economy by looking at how our well-being is changing, thanks to digital goods and services.” I recommend that you have a look at this presentation because it has very interesting

Whatever the new measure will be, we need to change and it is good at last that the subject comes up so powerfully in the public debate. Let’s hope it will remain there and we will be able to solve this conundrum.

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