How the USA Decadence Would Be Due to Not Achieving the Proper Institutional Transformation

In the very interesting book ‘Hedge: A Greater Safety Net for the Entrepreneurial Age‘ by Nicolas Colin, consideration is given to the changes in our institutions needed to deal with the Collaborative Age. In this context, the evolution of the institutional setup in the USA takes a particular importance being the original place of the current Fourth Revolution. And his conclusion is that this transformation is not happening, weakening the USA as the economic giant of the age, and starting its decadence.

“Being the dominant power in a given techno – economic age is not only about nurturing the dominant corporations of the day . It’s also about building the institutions needed to bring about economic security and prosperity . America has been the hotbed of three consecutive technological revolutions . But now that we’re deep into the current age of ubiquitous computing and networks , it’s entirely possible that the US will know the same fate as Germany at the dawn of the age of steel and heavy engineering . Despite having a headstart and everything needed to succeed , it could come up short and , taken aback by its own demise , experience the worst decades in its history“

The issues are well known: the lack of a proper minimum safety net for people, in particular those not working in the large corporations typical of the industrial age; problematic institutions preventing real reforms to pass; a pioneer economy that is deeply opposite to the need to protect the environment etc.

I like the historical comparison as it shows the importance of transforming the institutions to fit the economic evolution. In the long term it is what makes a difference. Whether institutions can change sufficiently fast remains to be seen.

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How To Deal with Frequent Mistakes of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence is quite often mistaken, and that’s something we must know and understand (see for example the previous post on ‘How Deployment of Facial Recognition Creates Many Issues‘). The best example I’ve read of the problem of humans not reacting adequately is highlighted in the post ‘Pourquoi l’intelligence artificielle se trompe tout le temps’ (Why AI is always mistaken – in French) when it evokes the Kasparov vs Deep Blue chess match (recounted here in English ‘Twenty years on from Deep Blue vs Kasparov: how a chess match started the big data revolution‘)

At some stage during the game, the computer did something which looked quite stupid. And it was actually stupid, but one could although believe it was brilliantly unconventional! Kasparov was destabilized. In reality, that was actually a mistake by the AI program! “The world champion was supposedly so shaken by what he saw as the machine’s superior intelligence that he was unable to recover his composure and played too cautiously from then on. He even missed the chance to come back from the open file tactic when Deep Blue made a “terrible blunder”.”

Because of the manner in which AI gets trained, it will necessarily create a high ratio of mistakes and errors when implemented. The challenge is for us to identify those occasions and not get destabilized by them.

First, we should probably get a systematic warning associated with the AI output about the possibility of a mistake. And, we should remain conscious and critically aware of the possibility of a mistake by running some simple checks for the adequacy of the output.

This high error rate of AI is a problem for high reliability applications of course, and we should also see some emergence of techniques to correct this problem or provide technological checks and balances to avoid inadvertent mistakes that could have actual consequences.

Still just knowing that AI is prone to making mistakes is something important we need to recognise and be able to respond to.

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How Deployment of Facial Recognition Creates Many Issues

In this Reuters investigation ‘Rite Aid deployed facial recognition systems in hundreds of U.S. stores‘, the major problems of deploying this technology massively are exposed. At the end it seems that this pharmacy brand has actually renounced using it for the moment.

The primary intent of this implementation was security and theft prevention. Beyond issues in the information of the public on the application of the technology, it seems that there have been many instances of wrong positive recognition, in particular with minority people of color. In addition the paper adds the links of the technology to China which reflects the fear that facial recognition data may be misused or the system manipulated.

Of course facial recognition software could be used for positive usage such as individualized service, but other technologies would also allow it. The current lack of reliability of the technology, and the fact that it is deployed without the proper guarantee for appeal for wrongly identified people is a concern. This probably calls for a strong regulation how people from the public can access the data and what is done with it.

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How Plastic Recycling Remains a Major Challenge to Overcome

In case you haven’t noticed there is a scandal recently uncovered around plastic recycling, explained for example on this well-named post ‘How Big Oil Misled The Public Into Believing Plastic Would Be Recycled‘. It is worth reading thanks to the depth of investigation as it almost reads like a spy novel. It shows how the general public got manipulated by the industry in believing plastic would be recycled when it isn’t – but giving us good conscience. And this probably does not stop at plastic recycling: much of the waste sorting effort at its origin gets wasted by subsequent treatment.

PLASTIQUE, LA GRANDE INTOX

In addition to the situation exposed in the link, there have also been reports of illegal disposal of recyclable plastic in less developed countries as the result of cross-border waste commerce. There seems also to be increasing evidence that the situation has been developed consciously by the industry: “We found that the industry sold the public on an idea it knew wouldn’t work — that the majority of plastic could be, and would be, recycled — all while making billions of dollars selling the world new plastic.” According to the investigation, the plastic recycling illusion was developed at the end of the 1980s to face the increasingly worse image of the industry.

It is good that such journalism still exists today to uncover such practices and differences between what is published and what is actually happening.

Like for most materials around including metals and glass, plastic virgin material is easier and cheaper to produce, and avoids also all risks of contamination. Still I observe that there are a few startups around developing new technologies based on enzymes that would provide new routes for effective recycling of plastics.

Effective and economic recycling of material is still a major challenge to be addressed in spite of laws on disposing only ultimate waste; this will need to be addressed in an urgent manner if we want to preserve our natural resources and avoid plastic demand to overgrow our capability to dispose of it.

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How Not To Be Forgotten in the Collaborative Age

I like this quote from Benjamin Franklin “If you would not be forgotten, as soon as you are dead and rotten, either write things worth reading, or do things worth writing.” I take that to heart writing books. But what does that mean in today’s collaborative age with the internet?

The quote provides two interesting alternatives so that you get remembered. In any case it reminds us about our own impermanence and what we can do to try to overcome it.

Writing since the writing revolution has been the way to get memories and information pass reliably from generation to generation. The intent is still valid today although the number of things written or otherwise published or created increases dramatically; and the barrier to writing and broadcasting is much lower than it was in Franklin’s time where being published was reserved to the few.

I still believe that quality, thoughtful writing is still important beyond what we all publish on all sorts of media. The process itself is enriching, and the outcome is a sounder basis for people to build upon – as long as it is worth reading. Even in the collaborative age, quality writing remains important; as are all creative work based on image or video. What counts is the effort and the depth of the expression.

Express yourself in ways that are worth reading, watching or listening to, and that will stand the test of time. Do the effort to reach that quality!

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How California Fires Show How Nature Plays Catch-Up

I obviously like unconventional viewpoints and here is one on the 2020 California forest fires: ‘This is Not Fine‘ by Alex Tabarrok which mentions a study showing that those fires were just a catch-up by nature compared to the normal natural fire rate in California.

“Academics believe that between 4.4 million and 11.8 million acres burned each year in prehistoric California. Between 1982 and 1998, California’s agency land managers burned, on average, about 30,000 acres a year. Between 1999 and 2017, that number dropped to an annual 13,000 acres.” In addition when I visited California I got explained that the Giant Sequoias could only reproduce if there were fires, because it is what triggers the seed to start growing. So, obviously, we have tried to convince ourselves that fire is not normal whereas it is a normal behaviour of the ecosystem.

The post goes on to state various reasons why there is not more controlled burning every year, but what is really important here to note is that ecosystems won’t always bend to the wishes of humans, and at some time there will be a catchup. And that we should be able to foresee this situation rather than complain.

Listening to the century-old rhythm of nature and ecosystems is certainly a good way to start when it comes to deciding where and how we live.

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How Imperfection Can be Leveraged for Inspiration

This article from Entrepreneur.com ‘Finding Beauty In The Imperfection‘ reminds us that not everything that is beautiful needs to be perfect. In the field of entrepreneurship or in the field of personal development, it reminds us that we don’t need to provide the perfect service of product, or live the perfect life: there is beauty in the fact it is not fully finalized.

In reality things are always imperfect. We don’t necessarily need to go to the study of wabi-sabi (japanese approach around acceptance of transience and imperfection – like building from broken stuff), but it is quite true that there are always things to tie up that are not fully finalized. Imperfection is part of life, and we definitely need to accept it, and value it as a source of inspiration.

Imperfection is a clue to what can be improved, it is a hint leading to lateral thinking on how to do things differently. In any dynamic situation such as life, imperfection is a call to reflection and action.

Stop complaining about imperfection, and look at it rather as a source of inspiration!

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How to Leave a Current Client in the Midst of a Services Project

In this post ‘On quitting a freelance gig‘, Seth Godin tackles the issue of how to leave a current client because the relationship is not satisfying. For me, the principles of this post do not just apply for freelancers, they do also apply to all professional services firms.

The gist of the problem: “Freelancers need to worry about doing the right thing as well as maintaining their reputation. Leaving a project in midstream hurts your reputation, and your promise needs to mean something. But sometimes we express our fear of change by sticking around longer than we need to and longer than we promised to.”

It can happen that there is a client mismatch between what we can offer and our values, and how the client behaves or simply, how his needs evolve. This mismatch can be from the start and not have been identified in earlier business development stages; or it can develop over a longer intervention. In any case, it is important to be able to decide to stop the relationship if it can be damaging.

First, to avoid this situation, there needs to be a thorough assessment of the client culture before taking the job. This is not always easy, so we also generally start with a limited intervention which serves both for us and the client as a discovery. This gives the possibility to part ways without having to terminate a longer contract. Similarly it is important to make sure your contract has a regular meeting clause at each stage of the project, where it can be stopped by any party after having assessed the results so far. And finally should you decide to part ways, it is nice to provide the client with a contact or a reference of someone that can take over.

Leaving a client in the middle of a services project is not the best situation. It needs to be prepared and properly timed. Still sometimes this is unavoidable to escape destructive relationship, and we need to recognize the possibility.

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How We Need to Recognize the Psychological Price of Entrepreneurship

This not-so-new 2013 Inc. article ‘The Psychological Price of Entrepreneurship‘ is still quoted often as a reference as it describes in no uncertain terms the issues entrepreneurs have to struggle with.

And it is true from my personal experience that the responsibility of a company can be sometimes heavy to bear in particular when the economy is down, that you may have to lay-off employees and lose a lot of what you struggled to build. This is compounded for entrepreneurs who are trying generally to build something that has never been done before, with a high degree of risk.

“Successful entrepreneurs achieve hero status in our culture. […] But many of those entrepreneurs […] harbor secret demons: Before they made it big, they struggled through moments of near-debilitating anxiety and despair–times when it seemed everything might crumble.”

The article also gives some advice: make time for your loves ones; try to limit your financial exposure in particular if it may affect your family; exercise sufficiently.

How to overcome the stress of being an entrepreneur is certainly a discriminating factor for founders. It is quite important to know what one is actually looking for in his life. And we need to recognize this struggle when we meet founders even if they have to put on their ‘successful entrepreneur’ face. They often need support and encouragement, and we need to provide it whenever we can.

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How Advertising is Often Wrongly Pointed As the Source of Internet Problems

This Atlantic paper ‘the Internet original sin‘ provides a reminder of the damaging effect of a web funded by advertising. It proposes, as many papers have proposed before, an alternate funding model.

“Advertising became the default business model on the web, “the entire economic foundation of our industry,” because it was the easiest model for a web startup to implement, and the easiest to market to investors. Web startups could contract their revenue growth to an ad network and focus on building an audience.”

Of course funding through advertising has led to some effects that are not quite positive: development of means to defeat search algorithms, need to pay to get promoted anywhere, and the most important, the trend by social networks to increase stickiness by making sure you only see stuff that conforms to your worldview.

I am not sure however that we should blame advertising so much. Historically, newspapers, radio and TV stations have also been mainly funded through advertising. This is not new. What is new is the power of digital to leverage advertising to a new level of personalization, up to showing a personal view of the internet to each user; and that the market for advertisement has now become global. In the case of newspaper, radio and TV, regulations have been introduced to allow a balanced approach to what was being broadcast. That’s probably what is missing for internet now.

It may be difficult to introduce regulations because they need to be global and internet has become a playground for power ambitions, but it is definitely possible to impose regulations nationally or by region, and that’s what should be done.

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How the Split of Internet is Linked to the Strategic Value of User Data

Following up on our previous post ‘How Internet is Getting Increasingly Split‘, let reflect for a moment on the reason for this. I don’t believe it is just censorship. Of course the censorship motivation applies for many non-democratic countries, but the reason is probably deeper and has been highlighted by the TikTok events: ownership and access to user data.

Access to user data allows all sorts of manipulations as people can be targeted individually based on their preferences and hot buttons. It also provides an insight into the private life of individuals and may help setup compromission. In brief, it provides a strategic advantage that can be used to disrupt of manipulate social situations. It is a useful source of information for cyberwar, as shown by manipulations historically performed on American, British and less developed nations elections.

The recognition of the strategic value of user data is an interesting issue at the brink of the exponential development of the Internet of Things (IoT): even more data will be generated that is linked to our private life, and often while we are not conscious of what is really happening. This will in turn bring forth even more push to avoid foreign powers to have access to user data, necessarily promoting an increased split of internet. Global companies will have to develop strategies to locate data in the countries they are generated and provide security as to the usage by foreign powers.

The strategic value of user data has now been recognized, as well as its potential negative usage. And one can expect more consequences in the near future.

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How Internet is Getting Increasingly Split

A good summary of what is currently happening on the internet is given in those posts by Darin Stewart ‘Welcome to the Splinternet‘ and ‘TikTok is just the latest victim of the fracturing Internet‘. Of course the trend has been around for some time, but it now definitely clear that internet is not any more global, but multiple.

“What was promised as the great agent of globalization is rapidly becoming an enabler of isolationism. The borderless, digital frontier international businesses and organizations aligned themselves to is fragmenting. New borders and checkpoints are emerging.” “Technical fragmentation currently prevents roughly 25% of internet users, most in emerging markets, from accessing 70% of the Web. Political fragmentation has already divided the Internet into East and West, but recent developments are further divvying up the web into strongly bordered regional federations.”

This fragmentation has been driven by legal aspects (data protection laws), copyright and commercial issues, political issues (China being the best known, but India also participating) etc. It is quite interesting that this trend is parallel to the trend to reel back from globalization.

“Over time it creates a parallel reality that is extremely difficult to break out of. When amplified by the walled garden effect users are separated from non-aligned segments of the web as firmly as if they were on different networks altogether.”

When travelling it is possible to overcome some of the access limitations but when staying in one’s country, only advanced tricks will allow to overcome these limitations. Most people will increasingly be participating to a more limited version of internet. And that is probably reinforce the current issue of people being increasingly caught in the bubble of their own opinion and social network.

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