The Exponential Deception, or Why We Always Underestimate Incremental Change

I am always impressed how much we tend to underestimate the power of incremental change, i.e. the power of regular, small changes that do aggregate finally in an exponential improvement.

Micro-SD cards capacity transformation
Micro-SD card capacity multiplied by 1,000 in 10 years… that’s only an improvement by a factor of 2 every year!

There are many such examples in the world around us, such as the Moore law for computer processors, or similar laws for the evolution of the memory capability of hard disks or solid-state memory. The capacity of these products do not evolve suddenly through the sudden invention of new technologies, they evolve slowly by successive small improvements, resulting finally in exponential change in capability over time. As shown in the illustration, the transformation of micro-SD cards storage capacity (a factor of 1,000 in 10 years) only means that this capacity has doubled every year. That looks much more feasible!

It is difficult for us psychologically to apprehend what an exponential change means. Its power lies in progressively compounding successive changes.

What does it mean for us personally, or for the organization we try to change? You can reach the goal of a much greater transformation, on the long term, by accruing successive, small changes on a very regular basis. On a personal basis, by small daily or weekly improvement goals. At the organizational level, by setting weekly or monthly improvement goals. These goals do not need to be substantially challenging nor appear to be unfeasible – it is the accumulation of these small changes that will create transformation. And suddenly, with an achievable daily, weekly or monthly goal, change looks much less sinister.

So, when do you start compounding small, incremental changes?

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