In this excellent post ‘The Difference Between Luck and Skill’, Valeria Maltoni explains how there are situations that are driven by skill, and other by luck; and that it is important to understand what is driving the situation to take the right behavior.
First, our brain is not geared to distinguish luck from skill. “Our nature throws a wrench in our ability to distinguish luck from skill. The problem is that we naturally embrace stories and shy away from statistics.” We need some analysis to understand what is at stake and it may not be easy. As a result, we overestimate the importance of skill and underestimate the situations that depend on luck.
Then, “In The Success Equation, Michael Mauboussin says that when skill is predominant in a field, the best course of action is to engage in deliberate practice with feedback and coaching; while when luck is predominant, he advises not to worry over results, because we have little or no control over them. Instead we should just focus on getting our process right to succeed long term.” (which means, get ready for the opportunity that will present itself one day or the other). Thus we need to behave markedly differently whether skill or luck drives what we are trying to achieve.
It gets complicated, of course, by “The paradox of skill — In fields where skill is more important to the outcome, luck’s role in determining the ultimate outcome increases. While in fields where luck plays a larger role in the outcome, skill is also very important but difficult to ascertain without a large enough sample set.”
So, is your project luck or skill-driven? Adapt your behavior in consequence!
