Change | The Fourth Revolution Blog

How to Create Disruptive Change

Following our post ‘Why Experts Are Always Wrong About the Future‘, how can we overcome the limitations of expert forecasts, and create the disruptive changes that puzzle experts? Paul Graham a famous Venture Capitalist, shares some insights in an interesting post ‘How to Be an Expert in a Changing World‘. The post is worth reading in its entirety for its insights.

Paul Graham starts from the same position as us: “Change that matters usually comes from an unforeseen quarter. So I don’t even try to predict it“. And he continues, “we are full of obsolete beliefs“. Hence he concludes, “the best strategy is simply to be aggressively open-minded. Instead of trying to point yourself in the right direction, admit you have no idea what the right direction is, and try instead to be super sensitive to the winds of change“.

There, Paul makes gives us two important practical pointers we can use:

“If you’re sufficiently expert in a field, any weird idea or apparently irrelevant question that occurs to you is ipso facto worth exploring […] When an idea is described as crazy, it’s a compliment“
“focus initially on people rather than ideas. Though the nature of future discoveries is hard to predict, I’ve found I can predict quite well what sort of people will make them. Good new ideas come from earnest, energetic, independent-minded people“.

Thus become expert in a domain, explore crazy ideas and hang out with other people prone to the same tendencies – a recipe for shaping the future in a disruptive manner?

Why Experts Are Always Wrong About the Future

I am always puzzled about the failure of experts to predict anything. Take for example the sudden drop of oil price: most experts agreed one year ago that high prices were here to stay (and increase further); and the same experts now explain with the same smile and assurance that they see prices go down even more as they already halved in 6 months time. How come they can change their mind so quickly (and without shame it seems!)?

oil price 2011 forecast — A random oil price forecast of 2011. How come the current price is lower than the lowest?

The reason is of course simple. Experts are experts on an earlier version of the world. They are experts on what happened, not on what will happen. In addition, in our ever more complex world, disruptive changes are more prevalent, leading to unexpected surprises – surprises not seen before that experts can’t of course foresee.

The thing is, future can’t really be forecast when it comes to factors that depend on human interaction such as markets and societies. Financial traders know this when it comes to share prices. Of course depending on what you want to predict, it will have some inertial factors attached to it that will make change more or less quick. Still the future remains unpredictable.

So instead of trying to predict the future, experts should certainly try to better analyze and explain past and present, and more importantly, devise mechanisms to dampen as much as possible the inevitable disruptions that shake our world.

Let’s come back to my heuristics already developed in ‘How to Overcome the Experts’ Confidence Conundrum?‘: when all experts agree on something and it becomes a kind of a consensus, then there is a good chance that there will be a significant change. It is time to take a contrarian position. Thus when I’ll see that everyone finally agrees that cheap oil is there to stay, then will be the moment to invest in oil companies – oil price is due to increase!

How We Underestimate What We Can Do in Ten Years

“People always underestimate what they can do in ten years and overestimate what they can do in a week” says Hugh MacLeod of Gapingvoid (great daily cartoons and inspiration!). For the ten year time-frame, the cause is easy to find: it is clearly another effect of the ‘Exponential Deception‘.

A great approach to time, from day to decades! — A great approach to time and life, from day to decades!

I can confirm personally and in my project execution experience that people do for sure overestimate what they can achieve in a day or week, and have difficulty figuring out what they can really achieve in a year.

The decade is an interesting timeframe for further contemplation. In reality, trying to look in hindsight we can probably do so much in a decade that we can change our life and our worldview completely…

Ask yourself right now: what did you think you would become ten years ago? What did you think you would do?

If you are like me, what happened is vastly different from what I could just even envisage ten years ago (from civil service in France to expat consultant-entrepreneur in Singapore!).

And the thing is, achieving a transformation in a decade (just 3653 days) does not require to work harder or to improve much more on a daily basis – the power of the exponential secures dramatic changes even for minimum daily and weekly improvements.

Come on, what will you do in ten years? What do you want to do? Don’t limit yourself, the sky is the limit!

Why We Fear Freedom And How to Overcome That Fear

How come that we fear so much having opportunities and going after them? How come that we fear so much freedom and dream of coming back to a well-organized life with little surprises?

A personal story: a few weeks ago one of my main clients terminated my consulting contract for some economic reasons that were not related to my mission. Suddenly half my occupation was gone… From a comfortable situation keeping busy more than full-time, I got propelled in uncertainty and the need to increase marketing and networking to find some new work. This situation was actually not an issue on the short term (enough reserves having been built over time), it was actually a great wake-up call to go out and do new, interesting things and meet new, great people. It was the opportunity to take time to create more great content. Still I was afraid.

I was afraid because of the uncertainty, because I could not anticipate where and when I would be in the next weeks and months. I got afraid when there was no problem in the medium term and only positives that could emerge from the situation.

And suddenly as I became open to new things, new opportunities started pouring in. Some more serious or more ripe than others, but from a trickle it soon became a stream of opportunities. Interesting possibilities that I had overseen by being busy became visible.

Still inside I remained somewhat fearful. It is difficult not to be afraid in the face of uncertainty. It is important to be able to overcome the ineluctable fear moments.

Don’t fear freedom. Breathe. Calm down. Freedom is the possibility to change and get closer to what we want to be.

This post was inspired by the post ‘the Fear of Freedom‘ by one of my favorite bloggers Seth Godin, which got published just at the right moment for me in my small inner questioning!

Why You Need to Choose Conversation Over Comments

Speaking about the web, Valeria Maltoni notes: “You have a conversation problem. And social networks have exacerbated it. People think they are conversing. Instead, they are commenting — big difference.”

Commenting is about judgment. It is a one way affair. Conversing is about exchanging views, possibly opinions. It is a two way affair. It can generate new ideas and views from the confrontation. And it makes all the difference.

How often in our lives do we comment, and forget to converse? How often do we pass judgment, without giving the opportunity for the other to explain or discuss?

We often need to consciously open the door to conversation instead of just producing a series of comments. We need to act instead of judging and avoiding the interaction.

Hat tip to Valeria Maltoni’s post ‘People don’t Converse: they Comment. Big Difference‘, originally written about online commenting and marketing – and blog commenting!.

What Makes a Great CEO… And How It Applies To All of Us

“Whenever I meet a successful CEO, I ask them how they did it. Mediocre CEOs point to their brilliant strategic moves or their intuitive business sense or a variety of other self-congratulatory explanations. The great CEOs tend to be remarkably consistent in their answers. They all say, “I didn’t quit.”” – Ben Horowitz in his book ‘The Hard Thing About Hard Things‘.

Don’t quit… be persistent against adversity. It is true that I have observed that many successful top executives do show this capability. Weathering the storm, keeping calm but decided as to the general direction, getting all sorts of scolding and social pressure, and still persisting.

Your business, or your project, if a bit ambitious, will go through ups and downs. And sometimes the down moment will look abysmal. Note that’s where most people give up. That’s the great filter that separates the people who will make a difference and will create their mark for all to see. Not giving up. No quitting when (almost) everybody would quit. Sticking to it.

If you want to be successful, just don’t quit. Just stay when everybody else leaves running for cover.

How We Forget Too Often About the Value of Options

Having options for flexibility has great value. And we often forget to value them, or to get ‘free’ options at our hand when we can.

A method of Real Options valuation using a choice lattice

In finance, options valuation has been implemented for the last few decades – it allows to calculate the price of options to buy or sell equities or currencies in the future. There is even a specific field that looks into Real Options (tangible options in real-life decision-making) and attempts to give a value to those options.

Without going into the details of these approaches, which are sometimes tedious and rely on some parameters and statistical approaches that can always be discussed, let us note here that having an option to do something, in other terms to have flexibility in the future, has got a value, and that we often underestimate that value – or worse, we give it out for free.

In my commercial approaches I always try to keep as many options open as possible. Less flexibility imposed by a client needs to be compensated. Options at the hand of the client need to be compensated. It is not always easy to get the client to understand, but it is a key practice.

Options have value. Don’t give them away. Try to have as many as possible and keep as much flexibility as possible.

How to Use Conflict to Shape an Engaging Presentation

Like good movies, great presentations need to be memorable. To be memorable, they need to tell a story that will stay with the audience and that can be talked about further.

ratatouille — Ratatouille, an engaging story about a struggle to achieve a passion

“No conflict, no story. (…) Make things clear, engaging, and memorable by illustrating the struggle” recommends Garr Reynolds, a presentation guru, one of his posts ‘10 tips for improving your presentations & speeches‘. He continues: “We can certainly improve almost any talk by being mindful of what is at stake and what the obstacles are to overcome. Here’s a definition of Story from the book ‘Story Proof’: “A character-based narration of a character’s struggles to overcome obstacles and reach an important goal.””

Showing struggle and vulnerability is a great way to connect with an audience and create engagement. Highlight the conflicts at stake, personal or organizational, and do not hesitate to be overly dramatic in the way you present. Your audience will stay with you and will remember what your message is.

Rework your presentation to highlight the conflict and the struggle.

And show the way.

Why Overcoming our Fear of Freedom is Key to Success in the Collaborative Age

Seth Godin states in his excellent post ‘the Fear of Freedom‘ that: “We live in an extraordinary moment, with countless degrees of freedom. The instant and effortless connection to a billion people changes everything, but instead, we’re paralyzed with fear, a fear so widespread that you might not even notice it. We have more choices, more options and more resources than any generation, ever”

Our individual freedom has never been so great, never since the Agricultural Age have we had so many hours of leisure and never have we had so many resources at the touch of the fingers. It will only increase with the Fourth Revolution into the Collaborative Age. What do we do of this freedom? What do we do of that knowledge? What do we do of these possibilities?

Most of us have not found the answer yet. Most of us are paralyzed and even dream to come back the 1950’s where life seemed much simpler and straightforward – albeit with much less possibilities than today for the average person.

The ability to overcome our fear of freedom is key to our success in the world that opens to us. Going beyond our habits, connecting beyond our circles, broadcasting on the web, reaching out to the world with our own voice. That is what will distinguish those that will succeed in the new world.

Do you fear freedom, uncertainty? Let’s practice freedom. It is possible to do it in small doses, and it is necessary.

When do you start practicing your freedom?

How to Accelerate Decision-Making in a Negotiation

One of the best proven methods to accelerate decision-making in a negotiation is to set up a deadline, which can be arbitrary if needed (or, an existing deadline which importance for the issue at hand is overly exaggerated). Actually, arbitrarily-set deadlines are an excellent way to accelerate decision-making, potentially in one’s favor if quick decision is required.

Arbitrary deadlines can be a date in a calendar, but the most effective way is to link them with an event that is planned and looks difficult to move: a flight, an overseas trip, long-planned offline holidays. It can even be another deadline already given to an other party when it comes to compete for the same resources! (let’s extend the concept – we can already envisage a situation where deadlines can be created arbitrarily by informing a party of an imaginary deadline given to a second party which had set its deadline based on another arbitrary time like the birthday of the wife of the founder – imagination can be never-ending).

Deadlines are also great not only for the other party but for ourselves because it gives a maximum time-frame where we can be bothered by this particular issue.

On major issues, decision points and negotiations, do not hesitate to set arbitrary deadlines. It will put the system in tension and will lead to much more effective positioning and decision-making.

How Important Decisions Really Get Taken in a Negotiation

“No matter how many people are involved in a negotiation, important decisions are typically made when no more than two people are in the room” say Fisher and Ury in the basic book on negotiation ‘Getting to Yes‘.

Important international negotiations always have to conclude locking together the relevant leaders

Preparation with a wide team is important, even essential in complicated subjects so as to make sure that the key decision points are properly identified and their real consequences properly assessed and understood by each party.

Still, when difficult, the final decision is always most efficiently determined in an eye-to-eye meeting between the two leaders.

It is important to recognize this mechanism and invest in the personal relationship beforehand at leader level so as to make this final moment of the negotiation easier. It also helps when it is part of a series of negotiations where both parties could appreciate if the other party was interested in building a long term relationship.

If you are the leader, don’t be afraid once the issues have been exposed and all the easy points agreed, to close yourself up with the leader of the other party to take the final decisions. It might take some guts to support whatever final position you will take together, but it is the only way to be effective and reach a decision.

Two people face to face. It is how all successful tough negotiations end up. Don’t be scared. Go for it!

Why We Should Practice Silence as a Powerful Transformation Tool

Silence has got great power, sometimes greater than words. “Sometimes defined a deafening void, silence is an art. It comes with its own grammar: forging words that go with any sound or message is no trivial thing. Silence is a dynamic and ever changing force.” – writes Valeria Maltoni in an excellent post on this subject.

We struggle to use the power of silence; on the contrary we tend to try to fill all our waking moments with noise and content. We try to fill our conversation with words. We feel uneasy with silence. It is as though we fear silence.

Yet in my experience, it is in the silent moments that shifts and transformation happen. It is in the silent moments that reflection comes to fruition. It is in the silent moments that I reflect on what has happened and that I find a sense to my actions and to my life. It is in common silent moments that my relationships with people deepens, and mutual understanding and empathy spread.

It is those silent moments we fear where we shift our understanding and relationships. Those we flee from. But we should, on the contrary, be grateful for them.

We must practice silence and pause. Not that we should transform our days into silent days. But we must know how to entertain the right moments of silence, those that are powerful to transform lives.

Try to practice the power of silence. It will transform your life.

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