Author: Jeremie Averous

Why You Should Be Scared Sometimes – It Shows You Are Thinking Big Enough

“If you’re not a little afraid, and the other vendor in the room is telling you you shouldn’t be, then either ‘one of us is in the wrong room’ or you’re not thinking big enough” – says Matt Ridings in this post, written in the context of a small company’s sales efforts. Growth will necessarily happen at the expense of fear.

dreams_scare_not big enoughMatt Ridings continues – “Fear is a good thing, it’s almost universally true that ‘the larger the opportunity the larger the challenge’”. That says it all. If you’re not a little bit afraid, then maybe you are not going after the right size of opportunities.

Not long ago I grasped a great opportunity to grow significantly my company. It came with some risk associated. The risk was quite high, just not so high as to bankrupt the company after some risk engineering. I decided to go for it. Time will tell whether the opportunity will materialize.

Funny, I was about to write ‘time will tell if it was the right decision’ but that is absolutely wrong. Whether the opportunity materializes will be the result of my effort (a little bit) and of luck and other external factors I can’t control (a lot). So, the decision was the right one. Whether the opportunity materializes is something else.

It’s tough to ‘think big’ and when I re-read my post on thinking big posted in June 2012 a few months after I started my company, I see how much a way remains for me to be comfortable with the fear it entails. It is getting better though – and growth ambitions for myself and my company combine into an exciting mix!

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How to Calm Down To Find the Right Response to Your Issue

When you are panicked and stressed there is no way you can find the right way to resolve your problem. If you are calm right now, it might look a straightforward common-sense comment, but how often have you tried to find a way to resolve an issue while remaining panicky excited?

stressed executive
Stressed? Right now, calm down before reacting the wrong way!

That will only result in one phenomenon: you will REACT instead of RESPOND. There is a definite nuance between the two. Reaction is like a knee-jerk; it is unconscious and aims for selfish short-term protection. Response on the other hand is thoughtful, and can also take into into account wider interests as well as a long term view.

So the issue is how to calm down before doing something that you might regret later, in addition to probably be ineffective or even counter-productive. Time-off is the only solution, and then depending on the time available, different techniques can apply. When I have time I like to go walking for a while, or even exercising more actively. Ideally I like to spend a night on a difficult situation. When I don’t have time, I apply mindful breathing which in a few deep breaths do effectively lower my stress and allows me to respond instead of reacting.

These are quite easy; what is difficult is to recognize that you need some time off to cool down when you are in the midst of the difficult and stressful situation, so that you regain clarity of thought. It is worth taking the habit of regularly touching-base with yourself to consciously assess whether you are in that situation.

In any case, stop reacting in panic and stressed mode! Calm down and respond instead!

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Why Clarity Comes From Doing, Not Thinking

“Clarity comes from engagement, not thought”. I am not quite sure whom to attribute that quote but it has become very much used on the internet (Marie Forleo seems to be a possible contender).

clarity_engagementAnyway, that is just a way to re-iterate that instead of over-thinking and over-intellectualizing it is quite more effective to go into action and find clarity there, in the midst of action and doing. That might require to survive to many iterations, to overcome dead-ends, and to survive to fundamental re-inventions of oneself. It’ll be tough but at least you’ll make significant progress towards clarity.

There is no better effective recipe than diving into action to gain clarity.

And that is very much applicable to one’s personal purpose. You won’t find it reading books and theorizing while surfing on the internet. You’ll discovering through creating stuff, interacting with people.

It is also applicable to entrepreneurs when it comes to the business model of their ventures. It is only through trial and error that they will find what the market actually wants.

Stop over-thinking right now! Go and DO something!

Hat tip to Ishita Gupta for raising my awareness of the quote and her great explanation of the concept in one of her regular emails.

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The Exponential Deception, or Why We Always Underestimate Incremental Change

I am always impressed how much we tend to underestimate the power of incremental change, i.e. the power of regular, small changes that do aggregate finally in an exponential improvement.

Micro-SD cards capacity transformation
Micro-SD card capacity multiplied by 1,000 in 10 years… that’s only an improvement by a factor of 2 every year!

There are many such examples in the world around us, such as the Moore law for computer processors, or similar laws for the evolution of the memory capability of hard disks or solid-state memory. The capacity of these products do not evolve suddenly through the sudden invention of new technologies, they evolve slowly by successive small improvements, resulting finally in exponential change in capability over time. As shown in the illustration, the transformation of micro-SD cards storage capacity (a factor of 1,000 in 10 years) only means that this capacity has doubled every year. That looks much more feasible!

It is difficult for us psychologically to apprehend what an exponential change means. Its power lies in progressively compounding successive changes.

What does it mean for us personally, or for the organization we try to change? You can reach the goal of a much greater transformation, on the long term, by accruing successive, small changes on a very regular basis. On a personal basis, by small daily or weekly improvement goals. At the organizational level, by setting weekly or monthly improvement goals. These goals do not need to be substantially challenging nor appear to be unfeasible – it is the accumulation of these small changes that will create transformation. And suddenly, with an achievable daily, weekly or monthly goal, change looks much less sinister.

So, when do you start compounding small, incremental changes?

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Why We Underestimate the Change Brought by The Fourth Revolution

It all fits into an interesting quote by Bill Gates: “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten“.

Gates quote on predictionThat quote takes a particular taste coming from a person that is deemed to have missed, when it comes to Microsoft’s strategy, many of the key changes brought by technology in the last decade.

Our forecasting ability is exceedingly limited. Change takes it time to transform the world, but it will roll on inevitably. Today, I believe we totally underestimate the changes in our daily life, our institutions, our organizations, that are being brought by the Fourth Revolution. These changes will be tremendous. As Gates says, let us not being lulled into inaction, but let us anticipate what is coming. It is only at this condition that we will benefit from it.

Change starts now. When do you start?

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Who We Surround Ourselves With is More Important Than What We Do

“It’s often the case that the people we surround ourselves with (and the tasks we do) have far more to do with job satisfaction and performance than the subject of our work.” – Seth Godin in a blog post on Staples.

Group_working_together
What can give more satisfaction on the long time than the people we surround ourselves with?

Being a consultant I change probably much more often than most people who I am working with. The more it goes, the more I find that: a particular topic can be exciting to discover and develop, but that is a short-lived satisfaction. Long-lived satisfaction comes from working together as a team with people you have in high esteem and with which we feel we work together to produce worthwhile outcomes.

The same goes in personal life of course, where truly the people we surround ourselves with for that major project of our lives are the key to personal satisfaction.

When you look for your new job or assignment, how exciting it looks, consider first the team you will be part of. It is much more important than the topic or the role.

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Why the Ultimate Weapon for Cutting Losses is Changing the Manager

Following our series of posts on the issue of the psychological avoidance of cutting losses when prospects are bleak, let us once again quote Daniel Kahneman in the bestseller “Thinking, Fast and Slow“: “[because of the psychological effect leading to desperate gambles in the face of a high probability failure], the escalation of commitment to failing endeavors is a mistake from the perspective of the firm but not necessarily from the perspective of the executive who “owns” a floundering project“. As a result, “Boards of directors are well aware of these conflicts and often replace a CEO who is encumbered by prior decisions and reluctant to cut losses.” That statement can naturally be extended to any situation down in the organization.

Change_CEOThe ultimate response to the situation of the manager or the executive that continues a failing project and cannot exit this situation of desperate gambling is thus, from the organization point of view, the replacement of the manager in charge. Unencumbered by the issue of sunk costs and sunk emotional commitment, the new manager can cut losses (which, at the same time, allows him or her to highlight that the previous manager what incompetent – while that might just have been bad luck).

However there are obviously many drawbacks to that ultimate decision; in particular, the temporary lack of effectiveness which will be created in that part of the organization until the new manager is up to speed with the particulars of the company and the business. Often, it is preferable not to use that ultimate weapon but rather opt for softer solutions such as introducing as deputy someone that will allow a new course to be taken. This last solution also allows continuity and minimizes disruption.

When it comes to cutting losses on an endeavor and if the situation has already worsened significantly, changing the manager in charge can be the only solution to save what can still be saved. The emotional attachment to sunk actions is too strong to be overcome by the people in place, even if they show outstanding capabilities.

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Why it is so Important to Know How to Cut Losses

Following on our discussion of prospect theory applied to project failures, there appear to be some ways to overcome this unconscious tendency to prefer desperate gambles to cutting losses when it appears that there is a high probability of significant losses.

An obviously desperate (and amateur) gambler
An obviously desperate (and amateur) gambler

That seems to be what makes the difference between the professional and the amateur when it comes to gambling or to trade on markets: professionals know how to cut their losses, and it is in part because they are working on a very high number of attempts, and through repeated and frequent exposure to the situation. What is important for them is that overall, on a large portfolio of attempts, the wins slightly exceed the losses. So they learnt to cut and take their losses without too much emotion when it happens, before the losses become too overwhelmingly high. On the contrary, amateurs stick to their position and drown with it.

In other situations like project management it is less possible to play the game of having a large portfolio, although that it often possible at the company level. Here again, what is really important is to be able to cut losses before they become so big that they can sink the organization. Most organizational failure come from the avoidance of cutting losses while the situation was still manageable.

The solution is really to become a professional and recognize, either through repeated exposure or through reflection on one’s inner workings, that we tend to be risk-taking in certain situations, beyond what would be reasonable. And to be courageous enough to stop and take one’s losses even if that means losing one’s reputation of being able to deliver. That is always better than to lose its all.

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How Psychology Explains Why Most Projects Fail Miserably

The statistics of project failure are abysmal (two-third of projects fail – either outright, or by not providing the expected benefits). In addition, what is remarkable is that when they fail, they generally fail miserably – it is not just some statistical distribution due to the world uncertainties.

Psychology might offer an explanation for that interesting phenomenon, which I have actually observed in action in real projects. The prospect theory, mentioned and explained by Daniel Kahneman in the bestseller “Thinking, Fast and Slow“, shows that we tend to have some biases when deciding in an uncertain context.

A summary of prospect theory showing those situations where we tend to be excessively risk-adverse or risk-seeking
A summary of prospect theory showing those situations where we tend to be excessively risk-adverse or risk-seeking

What occupies us in this instance is the upper right corner: when there is a high risk of significant losses, we tend to take more risk than would be reasonable in the hope of being able to recoup our losses.

So, project managers, facing situations where the prospective outcome of their project is degrading fast, with a high probability of significant loss, would tend to take the risk of an (improbable) recovery rather than cut their losses. And in reality, it is a phenomenon I observe again and again in real project life.

As Daniel Kahneman observes, “This is where people who face very bad options take desperate gambles, accepting a high probability of making things worse in exchange for a small hope of avoiding a large loss. Risk taking of this kind often turns manageable failures into disasters.”

Make sure you can keep managing the situation. Learn to cut your losses instead of hoping for an uncertain recovery!

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Why the Job Market Transformation Requires You to Develop Your Online Reputation

The value of inter-mediation for job search is moving towards reputation management. While before it was mainly making the job or the applicant visible and creating the connection, today’s platforms allow the potential employer to check the applicant’s reputation. This explains why once-major site posting players such as Monster.com etc are now being overtaken by sites that add reputation measurement.

Job postings board
Old-fashioned inter-mediation: a job posting board

That is one of the most interesting conclusions from Valeria Maltoni’s excellent post where she summarizes what is happening now on the front of job posting and job search, with different types of web-based sites and engines.

This reputation check happens in several ways:

  • on social-network based sites like LinkedIn, through the person’s network and reputation; and possibly on what the person published or linked as well.
  • On freelance hiring sites, reputation is acquired through the successive feedback from clients at the end of the jobs, which in effect rates the reputation of the person.

While providing the reputation data was once a service provided only by a few head-hunters for executives, this value of inter-mediation is now expected by most future employers and for most types of jobs.

Enhancing once’s reputation on the web is thus not any more an option, it is mandatory if you want to be successful in tomorrow’s marketplace – and even for conventional jobs!

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How We Will Need Specialists to Make Sense of the Authenticity of Big Data Correlations

Here is a fine example of the spurious correlations that Big Data can create (ref. my post on “How Big Data Will not Help our Understanding of Complexity”).

stupid Big Data correlationThis and many other great stupid examples are accessible on the spurious correlations page maintained by Tyler Vigen,

More data means the possibility of far more spurious correlations, and no doubt will it be difficult sometimes to figure out whether they are believable or not. More than ever, longer time scales will allow to distinguish spurious correlations or pure luck from real relationships. No doubt that in the Collaborative Age we will have data specialists that will track down these inadequate correlations like chemists were tracking charlatans selling proprietary “medicines” at the end of the 19th century!

I add another stupid (?) correlation to make your day between divorce rate and margarine consumption (note, it is a 99% correlation, no joke!):

Stupid big data correlation

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How the Fourth Revolution Dramatically Accelerates Finding Community and Cure for Rare Diseases

This long but interesting article in the New Yorker, ‘One of a kind, what do you do if your child has a condition that is unknown to science‘ tells the intriguing story of how social media and our new communications capabilities have allowed the family of a baby who had an unknown condition to find a community of similar children.

rddThey managed to figure out it was a rare genetic disorder (thanks to the latest progress in genetic sequencing). Through a post that went viral, they managed to find other children that had the same symptoms, showing to the world that it was not an exceptional condition – this would before have taken years as the other children would have been diagnosed differently and the medical community would have had a hard time figuring out the conditions of all these patients were similar. After a few months, a dozen cases of the similar condition had been identified worldwide.

This in turn created the conditions for unprecedented collaboration in the medical community, with a paper co-authored by 33 authors (where usually, medical teams tend to be competitive when they think they have identified a new sickness to keep the ownership of the discovery).

The final word comes from a medical researcher, the first who found the issue with the first patient: Vandana Shashi believes that such communities [of parents] represent a new paradigm for conducting medical research. “It’s kind of a shift in the scientific world that we have to recognize—that, in this day of social media, dedicated, educated, and well-informed families have the ability to make a huge impact”. “Gone are the days when we could just say, ‘We’re a cloistered community of researchers, and we alone know how to do this.’ ”

Hat tip to Quartz news for the link

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