The Fourth Revolution blog celebrates its first birthday!

It is one year since this blog has started exchanging with the world.

What a year!…

I still remember the stress at the moment of pressing the ‘publish button’ one year ago. Publishing to the world was scary… and enticing at the same time!

While that was primarily an experiment, I must say I have been taken up by the game! More than 170 blog posts later, I am even more enthusiastic about it!

first birthday celebration
first birthday celebration

It’s a good time for a look back on one year discussing and publishing about the Fourth Revolution:

  • the Fourth Revolution blog and website went live on Oct 10, 2010
  • the first manuscript of the Fourth Revolution book was ready in December 2010 after 5 month work
  • I had to change the hosting solution for the blog in January 2011 after some difficult days without being able to access it!
  • it took a few months of improvement after a few early readers gave their feedback, editing, typesetting, before the Fourth Revolution book was published in May 2011
  • the Fourth Revolution book was finally fully available on internet, print on demand in June 2011 at the same time I started public talks about it. More than 100 copies have been sold so far.

And now…? What is the new year going to be like?…

Let’s now spread to the word of the Fourth Revolution much more widely than it does right now.

I intend to do much more communication and public talking. I hope to build a real community around the concept.

Because it is important. Because the world is changing, and so should we.

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Don’t worry about people stealing your ideas

“Don’t worry about people stealing an idea. If it’s original, you will have to ram it down their throats.”

This is a quote by Howard Aiken, and American scientist (1900-1973) who was very much involved in the computer and electronics field at its outset.

And, by experience, it is held to be true by all the players in front-edge products and companies.

It just means that if your idea is really original, people will just not believe in it. Not only that, but they will try to kill it and discourage you.

So don’t worry about the competition – at least if you pursue this visionary idea persistently. Your following will come. And when you will be successful, you will redefine the market.

An other meaning is that an idea is nothing without its execution. What’s really difficult is to put it in practice, implement, tweak, mature it – and to do it against the rest of the world. That’s where the value lies. Anybody can have fantastic ideas. Not so many will be able to implement them. It takes focus, time, patience and persistence.

The defining criteria of patents should not be any more that some kind of prototype has been produced, but whether it has been adopted by a large following. Nobody cares about an invention if it is not used, and it is not appropriate to have the inventor become rich because somebody else managed to use the idea to produce social value.

Let’s change intellectual property. Let’s make it social. Ultimately, that’s where value lies.

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Social media will give birth to a new sociology field

Social media allows us unprecedented insights into sociology. The following graph, from the New-York Times article “Twitter study tracks when we are :)”, shows what specific analysis, looking at the words people use, can tell us about how people are feeling.

our mood analyzed through twitter
our mood analyzed through twitter

Similar studies have also sought to predict how the stock market would open based on the overall mood of the traders (as reflected by the twitter terms used).

Some of these studies appear a bit anecdotal but the lesson is that new fields of study are opening thanks to all this available data. Think about it – some of us put literally their entire life on social networks. The Fourth Revolution gives researchers the possibility to analyse through the data of thousands of people worldwide. A true treasure trove for generations of sociologists.

We can expect that in a few years time, new unprecedented insights about sociology will appear. I can’t wait to see what it will be.

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Guest post: How to be sure that you are a part of the 4th revolution…

Guest post by Olivier Lareynie, the winner of our contest on “why is hourly analysis of social network effectiveness fundamentally flawed?”

If you talk about the 4th revolution in your company of the Industrial Age (or at least try to explain it), I think most people would say “Yes, we’re a part of it! The company has its Twitter and Facebook accounts, we even post videos on Youtube!”.

I think that what we got then are two categories of companies and organizations.

what to do with social networks?
what to do with social networks?

Companies of the first category only use the tools of the 4th revolution as if they were from the Industrial Age, like radio, television or newspapers: one-way communication (nowadays faster), no interaction and no collaboration (even at short-distance).

Companies of the second category are aware that the entire society is currently being redefined, and are slowly opening to this new world. 4th revolution tools are not considered as one-way communication tools, and the first fruits of the collaboration and interaction are visible. However, these tools are often controlled by very few management people, and their use doesn’t means that the company is as open-minded as it seems to be when you watch it from outside.

Have you tried to explain the 4th revolution concepts to colleagues in your company of the Industrial Age?

I’ve tried. And I’ve realized that 4th revolution concepts are not so easy to explain, and can be misunderstood or misinterpreted very easily. I’m sure there are many companies and people who really want to thrive through the 4th revolution, but maybe they are thinking in the wrong way.

How to avoid the illusion of being part of the 4th revolution? How to help people and companies to be a part of it?

…Wishing Olivier a lot of upcoming blog posts!

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Regulatory authorities: the challenge of jumping into Open Regulation 2.0

Governments are reluctant to open themselves. Regulatory authorities even more so, generally.

Andre-Claude Lacoste, president of the French Nuclear Safety Authority, in a press conference
Andre-Claude Lacoste, president of the French Nuclear Safety Authority, in a press conference

When I was at the French Nuclear Safety Authority ten years ago, the President, Andre-Claude Lacoste, decided to publish the follow-up letters that were sent to operators after they got inspected and audited. He took this decision very much against everybody (in government, operators and civil society). They were scared it could give leverage to anti-nuclear activists to know all the small mistakes they were making. I myself, managing inspectors, must say I was not very comfortable letting my activity be under close public scrutiny.

I learnt my lesson. The end result is globally, today, a much more mature discussion about nuclear safety, and a much better understanding of the effectiveness of public control and regulation by all parties. The operators are much more careful to respond to the Regulator’s observations and are being held accountable by the public. The anti-nuclear activists watch how control is effectively done. The Regulator itself is more careful to have a balanced view.

That was a bold step. A step many regulatory authorities in many fields have not yet taken. But that was openness 1.0. – before the Fourth Revolution.

Although the French Nuclear Authority does use today many social tools, it is still only one way, only broadcasting. When will Regulators move decisively into openness 2.0?. Go and open discussion forums, create a network of interested people, let people comment on blogs and articles, let a debate grow, let people in the organization be in touch with the citizens, their issues.

Most people will think it is risky. It is as risky as when 10 years ago, Andre-Claude Lacoste decided to publish inspection follow-up letters.

It will only bring the debate to an even more mature stage, where the Regulatory authority, a public authority, will perform its job closer to the citizen. Where all parties will be able to express their views publicly and create the right debate. And at the end, where the citizen will feel it is taken care of.

Open Regulation 2.0, where the Regulatory Authority will foster debate and exchange on the industry it regulates, listening much more deeply and quickly to citizen’s issues, is the way Regulation will work in the Collaborative Age.

The French Nuclear Safety Authority was a precursor of Open Regulation 1.0. Will it also be a precursor of Open Regulation 2.0?

 

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So, did your write your review of The Fourth Revolution on Amazon?

Dear Fourth Revolution community,

Did you take the time to review the Fourth Revolution on Amazon?

You can choose to review the book on either in English on Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk or in French on Amazon.fr , or even in German on Amazon.de. Follow the links to find the book’s page! (Amazon sites do not share reviews so feel free to copy your Amazon.com review on Amazon.co.uk or other Amazon sites!)

Also, please do not hesitate to send me comments and other useful hints to improve the book further! I will consider a second improved edition when I will have received enough feedback for that

Thank you!

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How patent litigation cost half a trillion dollar inefficiency in the last 20 years!

Following the popular last blog post on patent trolls, I have found very interesting data and reviews on arstechnica.com.

The first paper is titled: “Study: patent trolls have cost innovators half a trillion dollars since 1990”.

Let’s repeat: the cost of defending innovation has been 500,000,000,000 (500  billion) dollars for publicly traded defendants since 1990! And it has increased over time to a staggering 83,000,000,000 (83 billion) dollars per year in the last four years!

And some researchers (Bessen and Meurer in their book Patent Failure) have shown that showed that, outside the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, the cost of patent litigation had already begun to exceed the rewards to inventors by the year 2000. Their new work suggests that the problem has gotten much, much worse since then. And that the intellectual property system is definitely broken. It is supposed to bring wealth to society; actually is stymies it!!

The book “Patent Failure” is reviewed here. I can’t help copying in this post – with all due respect to copyright – a stunning graph from the book (other industries refer to other than chemical and pharmaceutical – mainly software):

Patent litigation costs explosion
Patent litigation costs are now far higher than benefits

No doubt. The intellectual property system is deeply broken and needs to be mended. Otherwise innovation might just be scared away by a bunch of parasites.

And… what better illustration for the Fourth Revolution ignition?!?

No doubt – that’s an area where the Fourth Revolution is already there and deep institutional changes are required, and fast.

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Patent trolls and the end of conventional intellectual property

Have you read lately about “patent trolls” (companies that make their living by doing nothing, just sitting on a few juicy patents)? Or the battles between Apple and Samsung, Google and Microsoft, to win ownership of treasure troves of patents, avoid long and costly legal battles about patent rights… Or the billions of dollars earned by lawyers in the field of patents in the gigantic battles that are ongoing?

patent troll in action
patent troll in action

For those of you that would like to learn a bit more about patent trolls, here is the transcript of an investigation of the broadcast “this american life” about “when patents attack”. It is bit long, but quite fun and enlightening.

In the Fourth Revolution Book, we relate how similar situations arose at the onset of revolutionary inventions, like how the patent for automobile was unduly exploited by Mr Selden who made a living by selling expensive licenses for building automobiles. That, until a certain Mr Ford just went ahead and filed lawsuit after lawsuit against him…

So, the current situation is not entirely new.

First, it confirms that something is happening that is revolutionary, in rupture with the usual slow improvement that is best suited for our intellectual property regime.

Still, it shows that the patent regime currently acts against public good, instead of acting in favor. Apple does not really need patents to be the largest market capitalization in the US. This time, the patents conundrum might become so problematic that a complete revamping of intellectual property might ensue. We can’t afford any more to give an exclusive right to an idea for 20 years in particular if this idea is vague or general. Resistance against changing the law will come primarily from lawyers, not consumers or companies. But change is inevitable. Because ideas are now produced collectively, and competitive advantage is based on speed of execution, quality of the product, and not any more on static defense of one’s position.

Which legislator will be bold enough to engage this much-needed change of the intellectual property regime? Shorten the timeframes, ensure that the patents are really specific, that the product described has really been produced, put some limits to the monopoly situation that ensues… such are the directions for a change.

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Answer to the quiz: the flaw of hourly analysis of social network

Last week’s quiz was about the deep flaw of any kind of hourly analysis of social networks

The right answer was: because of cheap long distance communication, the entire world – all time zones – is potentially participating to our conversation.

So, time does not have any meaning any more, beyond our circle of friends living in the same time zone.

Based in Asia, I am participating to conversations in Europe and in America. You read this blog and you are most probably more than 5,000 km away.

Time does not matter any more. The sun never sets on our conversations.

Welcome to the Fourth Revolution!

Congrats to Olivier Lareynie for his answer – I am looking for his guest post!

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Video of the month: Gary Hamel on the future of management

In the following video, Gary Hamel, an influential business thinker, tackles the future of management, or how management needs to change to get out of the Industrial Age mindset.

Watch the video: Gary Hamel on “Reinventing the Technology of Human Accomplishment” by following the link (16 min duration).

In the video, Gary explains what is conventional Industrial Age management, where it comes from, and why it is obsolete. Gary also explains what are the characteristics of the Collaborative Age organization. Don’t miss the example of HCL Technologies, an Indian IT company, where employees rate their boss, open a ticket when they are not happy with their boss or HR that get escalated if no satisfying response has been given within 24h, and more!

If you only have 2 min, look at least at this other video from Gary Hamel, “could you imagine a world without bosses?”

To finish let us dwell on this quote from Gary Hamel’s video:

You can’t build an organization which is fit for the future without making it fit for human beings

When do you change your organization to be more human-oriented?

[This video will be added to the Fourth Revolution Resource Center. Visit the Fourth Revolution Resource Center for all videos, book reviews and papers about the Fourth Revolution!]

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Avoid no, but, however – and change your life

One of the greatest piece of advice I found lately comes from Marshall Goldsmith, in his book “what got you here won’t get you there“. I have tried to apply it consistently and it makes a very significant difference in my relationship with people.

Marshall Goldsmith
Marshall Goldsmith

His advice is the following; ban “no”, “but”, and “however” from your language.

Why? Because everytime you use “no”, “but”, and “however”, you’re just basically saying to somebody else that what they just expressed was stupid. That’s put a bit blunt, but that’s reality.

And face it: like everybody, you LOVE using “no”, “but”, and “however”, in fact you probably use it much more often than you think.

So, change to “yes”, “and”, “while”, and be collaborative, for once.

That will change your life.

Try it. Today.

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The thrill of publishing

The picture was taken in Kuala Lumpur International Airport at the end of August by a colleague (I went to check a few days later as I went through the airport, it was real!).

The Fourth Revolution Book in a bookshop
The Fourth Revolution Book in a bookshop

WOW. The Fourth Revolution in a bookshop almost next to ‘The Black Swan’ and other well known books.

I’m waiting to see the sales, but already I know that’s a great step forward. It now really feels like the book is in the public domain. Of course, it has been already for more than two months, but seeing it like that when stepping into the bookshop gives a thrill! It is visible to all the travelers in the airport, and I look forward to see people frankly outside my network reading it.

Deep inside, I know that publishing and distributing the book is just the start, but that’s quite a noticeable step in the right direction.

Why are we so thrilled by publishing? Probably because we let unknown people discover our deep inner thoughts, sharing quality time, intimate time with them. And this reflection of ourselves is probably the most potent personal change factor.

Publishing is a great way to start influencing the world. That’s just what the K.E.E.N. needs to practice doing. Publish to the world in whatever format – blog, comments on other’s blogs, books, interactive e-books or else. Do it, change the world. And change yourself, deeply.

 

(image credit: Hugh Irvine)

 

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