Month: September 2015

How the Rate of Violence Worldwide Is As Its Historical Lowest

During the summer I read a great book by Steven Pinker, ‘The Better Angels of Our Nature: The Decline of Violence In History And Its Causes‘. Basically it demonstrates how the rates of violence in all categories have dramatically decreased over time.

decrease of violenceThe emotionally-laden coverage of today’s news hides the fact that homicides and wars have reached an historical low point. Steven Pinker shows that this observation that violence has decreased dramatically has happened simultaneously in many dimensions:

  • wars (civil wars and wars between entities)
  • homicide and other day-to-day violence
  • punishment by the power in place
  • family-related violence
  • violence against minorities, gays, racial etc.

In our societies, it is 50 to 100 times less probable to be the victim of a homicide than a few centuries ago. In many primitive societies, 50% of people die violently.

I think we need to put in perspective the continuous flow of atrocious information that is fed on us. Of course, what is happening in Syria or elsewhere is terrible, but it is bloated out of proportion by manipulations from all sides.

The world is becoming a better place, Europe has never had 70 years without war for ages, and this will continue to be the trend in the Collaborative Age, with increasing networking and trade between us.

The book is quite long and detailed, alternatively, a video presentation by Steven Pinker is available on Youtube.

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How We Are Becoming Much More Intelligent With Each Generation

I discovered recently the Flynn Effect, the fact that our average intelligence (as measured by the IQ test) has increased dramatically in the last decades in developed countries.

flynn effectThe IQ test is periodically calibrated to have an average of 100 and a standard deviation of 15 points. In many developed countries, the average IQ has increased by 20-30 points over the 20th century: measured as of today, our ancestors one century ago would have been considered mentally retarded (and so possibly also our grandparents).

There are many reasons proposed for this change, the most convincing being better formal education. Also, we now know that IQ only measures one kind of intelligence, and there are other forms which are as important for predicting success and social abilities.

Some recent observations would tend to show rather a stagnation of even a diminution of the average IQ in the last decade, still to be confirmed, and still to be linked with the kind of questions that are asked in the IQ test which only measure a partial side of intelligence. Still, 20th century schooling has shown a dramatic ability to improve the capability it intended to improve!

Anyway, what I find very interesting here is that it appears that our modern habits of mind and education seem to have made us much more adapted to dealing with certain kind of problems that require abstract thinking. What is amazing is the magnitude of the change over 2 generations!

For more information, watch the TED talk by James Flynn on YouTube

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How to Improve the Effectiveness of Complex Problem-Solving Teams

We’ve already established in this blog that an effective team is the best way to tackle complexity. There appears to be one additional condition: the team must be complete when it meets to resolve a situation.

problem solving teamAccording to  Michael Marquardt in the book ‘Optimizing the Power of Action Learning’, “Putnam (2000) notes that the most complex problems can be solved only by a group that has developed a strong social bonding. Therefore, it is much better that the group meets fewer times when everyone is present than more times when one or more of the members may be absent”

I have observed that when people are missing it certainly influences the effectiveness of the process. This warning also implies that problem-solving teams be of a limited size so as to make it workable.

Increase definitely the effectiveness of complex problem solving by insisting on the attendance of everybody in the problem-solving team!

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How to Easily Check If Data from Complex Systems is Tampered With

Benford’s law is a great way to quickly check if data from complex systems (obeying typically to a power law distribution over several orders of magnitude) has been tampered with.

An illustration of Benford's law
An illustration of Benford’s law

According to this law, the first number of the dataset must follow a logarithmic law, and there must be much more ‘1’s than ‘9’s. This is contrary to intuition, and when people generate fake numbers they will tend to spread them more evenly.

In an interesting Guardian article ‘The special trick that helps identify dodgy stats’, studies are mentioned that showed that when applied to the macroeconomic data from countries, this simple test showed that Greece’s was quite questionable!

When questioning a dataset next time, use Benford’s law to easily check whether the data could be suspicious!

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Why You Should Always Look Far Ahead

In life we need to look far away at our goals and intent to keep balance and keep our position with respect to our reference.

surfingThis summer I took some surf classes and I got some advice which I had already heard a number of times previously in other instances: to keep standing up, don’t look at your feet, but always look far ahead. Then you’ll get balance and direction.

It was the same when I was flying gliders close to the mountains: instead of looking whether your wingtip touches the cliff, look far ahead and you’ll find the right distance from the mountain.

I like this image because I think it is also applicable to life. We’re in life moving with some speed in a difficult environment, with obstacles around. We’re not static! And we need to keep balance. If we look to close, or if we look to what we think is the danger, we will lose balance and fall. We need to look far away to keep good references as to our actual situation.

Keep looking far, it is the secret for balance.

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How We Can’t Escape Being Tracked and Photographed

With the Fourth Revolution, we can’t escape being photographed, recognized and tagged. Lately I was waiting to cross a street in Singapore when a Google Car passed by – and there am I on Google Streetview. My face is blurred but I remain quite recognizable!

Me waiting to cross a street in Singapore - on Google Streetview!
Me waiting to cross a street in Singapore – on Google Streetview!

Often on the streets we meet people taking pictures with their phones and it is quite certain that we must be in the background of numerous shots. Face recognition algorithms (such as Facebook’s) have certainly identified us in many situations, not to mention the public video surveillance systems.

Public space is more public than ever, and broadcast worldwide. Even private space is not so safe (I am surprised by the number of people in Asia who constantly cover the video camera of their laptop for fear of pirates shooting videos!). Many videos and sound tracks leak that are taken in otherwise supposedly private meetings.

That’s definitely a trend we can’t escape. I understand people are anxious with this change in particular if they’re caught in an unsuitable situation. Personally it makes me sometimes uneasy to think that in theory, someone could certainly track in detail my whereabouts (not to mention the GPS on the phone I carry). On the other hand, it can also be enhanced safety compared to the situation years ago.

As with everything, we will need to learn how to put safeguards and take advantage of the phenomenal advantages of modern technology. This one might be tougher as it visibly enters our private life.

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How Creativity and Productivity Are Seasonal

“Remember that creativity and peak productivity are seasonal: there’s a time to plant and a time to harvest” writes Robin Sharma.

seasonsI think it is true that it is quite impossible to stay hyper creative and productive all time; we need downtime and resourcing. We also need to consciously take time for reflection and refocus.

Contrary to natural seasons, the seasons hinted at by Robin Sharma develop along different timeframes – and intermingle. The most important timeframes are:

  • intra-day,
  • in our weekly rhythm, between week-days and week-end,
  • and finally over months or years.

And as Robin Sharma reminds us, we also need to be able to plant today to hope for reaping later. Investment in creativity and production is sometimes tough and costly, and remains necessary.

Do you give yourself time for downtime, reflection, and planting seeds that could eventually grow into full fledged harvest?

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How Teamwork Really Makes a Difference in a Startup

When I started my first company Project Value Delivery four years ago I was alone, with some advice from a team of close friends that participated to the capital. With my new venture ProjectAppServices we are a team of 3 involved in the business plus some investors. And this makes a hell of a difference!

TeamworkHere are some of the main differences:

  • We gain a lot of time and unnecessary trials by spending a lot of time brainstorming together (I know, it sounds contradictory but actually is true!) and we converge much more quickly towards practical actions
  • By being a team we can specialize, and each of us concentrate on what we know to do best. I still have to do a lot of different stuff as an entrepreneur, but I can delegate a lot of it to others who can do it better. Action is definitely quicker as well when we work in parallel to achieve a goal
  • Because of our diverse backgrounds we have access to a much wider network and set of industries to expand our business

Investors and other wise people that commit to support and advise are fine, but of course they are not so involved in the day-to-day grind so they can’t really count as part of the team.

In summary, working as a team definitely improves effectiveness and comfort at the same time, and it is a blessing compared to the solitude I felt at the start of my first venture!. It is enhanced by the fact that we know each other for a long time and we trust each other a lot, which helps!

Of course, it requires more funding and investment upfront so it’s not always possible, but I know now that if I start something new again (which will certainly happen one day), I will try to build a team first and do it together.

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How Most Violence is Attributable to Young Males

“The one great universal in the study of violence is that most of it is committed by fifteen-to-thirty-year-old men” writes Steven Pinker in the book ‘The Better Angels of Our Nature‘.

crime by ageAccording to him, “not only are males the more competitive sex in most mammalian species, but with Homo sapiens a man’s position in the pecking order is secured by reputation, an investment with a lifelong payout that must be started early in adulthood”.

We can probably argue with this explanation, it is still a constant observation in the news and the statistics that this is true. Just referring to the typical profile of jihadists (in particular foreign jihadists) is totally correlated to this observation. There is something in young males’ hormones that promotes violence between those ages.

I was not aware that the differences in violence were so sharply driven by age and gender. That is certainly something to take into account as part of management and building organizations!

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Why Computer Hardware Investment Leads to Significant Business Improvement

“For every dollar of investment in computer hardware, companies need to invest up to another nine dollars in software, training, and business process redesign” – according to a study by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee quoted in ‘The Second Machine Age‘.

computer hardwareThis looks first as a warning to budget adequately when buying computer hardware! In reality, it is a measure of the leverage into business improvement that is provided by computer capabilities.

And it is true that investment in new hardware or software always leads to business and process investment, and eventually to business improvement (which is required to justify the investment in the first place). Even if process improvements are not immediate due to change management considerations, it will happen eventually when the organization’s contributors will realize the capabilities that are now available to them. I believe it is typical in professional business software implementation to see professional fees to be up to 3 or 4 times the license investment; and obviously the leverage ratio is even higher on hardware investment.

Investment in computing capabilities always leads, sooner or later, to business improvement. It is one of the main driving forces of today’s productivity improvements that will make the Collaborative Age much more efficient.

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Why We Need to Choose the Lessons from Tough Experiences

Following on our previous post ‘Why you Need to Carry the Scars of the Lessons You Learnt‘, it is essential to learn the right lessons from the events from which you carry the scars.

MistakesWhen you go through a tough patch, the situation will leave a deep imprint in your mind in all cases. However, what this imprint is actually is your choice. The same situation will be traumatizing for some people, and exhilarating for others. The lessons we learn will depend on the individual.

By going real and testing, by getting burnt and getting scars, we create our memories. We build ourselves. Still we need to choose what exactly we learn from these situations. It is not always adequate to conclude that it is better to stay far from it; it might be better to conclude that it would be better to approach the issue from another way.

The memories and new reactions you build from the tough event are choices you need to make consciously. If possible, try to avoid falling into the trauma side which may consume you. Consider, if needed with the help of others, what good is to learn from the experience and move from there in building a better yourself.

Do get burnt and get scars, and manage your risks to survive in all cases. Then make sure you take the time to overcome the trauma and build constructive lessons from the experience.

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Why you Need to Carry the Scars of the Lessons You Learnt

“The lessons you learn best are those you get burned by, without the scar, there’s no evidence or strong memory” writes Julien Smith in a very interesting short book called The Flinch.

candle-handHe continues, “The event didn’t actually happen or imprint itself on your brain— you just trusted those who know better. Adults know what’s safe, so you listen. Over a lifetime, those who listen too much build a habit of trust and conformity. Unfortunately, as time goes on, that habit becomes unbreakable“.

Reflecting on my own experience, it is true that those experiences that really created pain are those that are the most present. They inform the way I deal with certain situations.

The point of Julien Smith is that it is not enough to hear or read about situations, it is essential to live through them.  Action is key, together with risk, and scars are proof of experience. They are needed, and there is no way you can gain experience without. Go for it!

 

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