How Fourth Revolution Disruption is Often Only About a New Intermediation

In this interesting paper ‘Uberization: will the empire strike back?‘ the authors analyze the fear of getting disrupted (also know as getting ‘uberized’) that stress many traditional actors. They show however that it is generally a trend in a new type of intermediation (brokering), and not the disappearance of intermediation per se: “The market – like the nature of yore – abhors a vacuum. Very often, de-intermediation is just a phase of re-intermediation.

UberMany consider the emergence of services like Uber as a kind of de-intermediation between consumers and providers. But in reality, it is about providing a new, upgraded intermediation capability that creates much value – it will include powerful algorithms and sometimes Artifical Intelligence to best suit our needs to what can be provided. Already Amazon is a model of an upgraded intermediation with its recommendations. Uber creates a new intermediation capability in the field of personal mobility. In both cases it gives a way for certain marginal providers to make their product available to a wider public, while under the previous infrastructure they were not sufficiently interesting to be considered by the intermediation system.

Nothing new under the sun then – the Fourth Revolution just gives us a new distributed power and communication system that allows a much more powerful intermediation to be implemented between consumers and promoters. It does disrupt traditional actors, only if they do not recognize that monopolies are here to be broken.

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How Institutions Design Human Nature

In this interesting TED talk ‘The way we think about work is broken‘, Barry Schwartz describes how society and institutions shapes the way we think and we are – our human nature.

The military, an institution that definitely influences human nature
The military, an institution that definitely influences human nature

He elaborates how the Industrial production system (Adam Smith) aimed at making us cogs in a system with limited initiative, and how this shaped human nature in the past decades. “It is only human nature to have a human nature that is very much the product of the society in which people live. That human nature, that is to say our human nature, is much more created than it is discovered. We design human nature by designing the institutions within which people live and work.” Barry Schwartz then calls for decision-makers to shape their organizations and institutions in a manner that would create a new type of human nature in the Collaborative Age.

What I find interesting in the concept is to consider how institutions do influence human nature. It is quite true in a way, as we tend to act and respond according to some learned patterns from institutions and organizations we served; probably with some limits I think. But then as institutions evolve or are replaced, human nature needs to fit in a new way of being in society. That is possibly the most challenging side of the Fourth Revolution – former human nature will become obsolete as new institutions will shape another new one. And which sides of human nature do we want to develop?

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Why We Should Reconsider The Reason We’re Doing Startups

In this refreshing post ‘Reconsider‘, David Hansson, the cofounder of Basecamp, exposes his philosophy of startups and why he considers the general view of looking for fast-growing, billion dollar valuation startups to be a general conspiracy.

Life is too short not to to do something that mattersPart of the problem seems to be that nobody these days is content to merely put their dent in the universe. No, they have to fucking own the universe. It’s not enough to be in the market, they have to dominate it. It’s not enough to serve customers, they have to capture them.”

On the contrary, David explains his approach: “I wanted to work for myself. Walk to my own beat. Chart my own path. Call it like I saw it, and not worry about what dudes in suits thought of that.” He then declines it on several dimensions:

  • “I wanted to make a product and sell it directly to people who’d care about its quality.”
  • “I wanted to put down roots. Long term bonds with coworkers and customers and the product.”
  • “I wanted the best odds I could possibly get at attaining the tipping point of financial stability.”
  • “I wanted a life beyond work.”

I am personally rather on his small, human adventure side. What serves to develop a great venture that will eat me out? Let’s make a significant dent in the universe and stay small and human. And we can do so today with the internet and the Fourth Revolution. Be small and have a global impact.

“Life is too short not to do something that matters”: It can matter immensely and still remain small and human.

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How Overprotecting from Different Points of View is a Moral Hazard

There is a bit of a controversy in the US at the moment about excessive coddling (protection) of college students. Basically in some colleges, many issues can’t be discussed any more or taught because of the potential to offend some students. This created astonishing concepts such as ‘micro-agressions’ (move or words people feel aggressive) or ‘trigger warnings’ (the need to announce in advance that the subject or the words that will be used might offend, giving the opportunity to retreat in a safe space).

trigger-warningThis has come to a point where President Obama had to comment: “I’ve heard some college campuses where they don’t want to have a guest speaker who is too conservative or they don’t want to read a book if it has language that is offensive to African-Americans or somehow sends a demeaning signal towards women. I gotta tell you, I don’t agree with that either. I don’t agree that you, when you become students at colleges, have to be coddled and protected from different points of view. I think you should be able to — anybody who comes to speak to you and you disagree with, you should have an argument with ‘em. But you shouldn’t silence them by saying, “You can’t come because I’m too sensitive to hear what you have to say.” That’s not the way we learn either.

And more: “The purpose of college is not just … to transmit skills,” he said. “It’s also to widen your horizons, to make you a better citizen, to help you to evaluate information, to help you make your way through the world, to help you be more creative.”

What is the future of these students that can’t face certain issues and want to protect themselves from anything they might feel offensive? How are they going to manage being in the world? We can be sure they won’t move out from their cozy american environment and fear the world around them. This is the root of future US conservatism and protectionism, and dysfunctioning adults.

We all need to learn to face the world however uncomfortable it can be to us to forge character. Let’s not shrink from the nasty stuff surrounding us; let us face them and deal with them. Overprotection from offensive ideas is a moral hazard that needs to be addressed.

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Why Profit Will Increasingly Be At the Edge of the Existing

In a market-exchange economy, profit is made at the margins” writes Jeremy Rifkin in his interesting book ‘The Zero Marginal Cost Society‘. His argument is that the natural trend for commodity products’ price is to tend to zero; and this trend has significantly accelerated in the last decades.

Esoko add
A great product creating high value and profits, at the edge of the existing

As more and more of the goods and services that make up the economic life of society edge toward near zero marginal cost and become almost free, the capitalist market will continue to shrink into more narrow niches where profit-making enterprises survive only at the edges of the economy, relying on a diminishing consumer base for very specialized products and services“.

The model where you copy the existing is less and less sustainable. If you want to create value, and hence profit, place yourself at the edge. How does your current strategy fare?

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Why We Need to Restore Productivity Through Collaboration

Productivity is the basis of wealth. Yet after decades of sustained growth in the Industrial Age, its growth has been progressively slowing down since the 1970s, and is almost plateauing today. This causes economic stagnation.

In a very interesting TED talk, Yves Morieux explains how this crisis is due to a change in the concept of efficiency – because value has shifted, due to the Fourth Revolution.

Yves Morieux explains that the traditional tenets of the corporation (clarity, measurement, accountability) are obsolete and have to be replaced by collaboration. “To cooperate is not a super effort, it is how you allocate your effort. It is to take a risk, because you sacrifice the ultimate protection granted by objectively measurable individual performance. It is to make a super difference in the performance of others, with whom we are compared”.

Clarity, accountability, measurement were OK when the world was simpler. But business has become much more complex”. And thus the processes and effort around clarity, measurement and accountability and the innumerable processes around these issues have become a liability instead of an advantage.

Collaboration is the key to effectiveness in a complex world. Remove the rules around individual measurement and focus on getting the maximum out of collaboration!

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How Creators and Artists still Thrive in the Collaborative Age

With the Fourth Revolution came the collapse of creative industries such as the music industry, the publishing industry etc. It is relevant to ask what became of the artists and creators. Were they also destroyed by the tsunami? In an excellent piece ‘The Creative Apocalypse That Wasn’t‘, the New York Times Magazine gives a clear answer: no, actually the artists are rather thriving. It is the industry around them that crumbled.

Focus the value on the artist, not the industry around him
Focus the value on the artist, not the industry around him

The entire business model of creativity has been put on its head. The collapse was incredible: “The global music industry peaked just before Napster’s debut, during the heyday of CD sales, when it reaped what would amount today to almost $60 billion in revenue. Now the industry worldwide reports roughly $15 billion in revenue from recorded music, a financial Armageddon even if you consider that CDs are much more expensive to produce and distribute than digital tracks.”

Obviously, recordings don’t sell so well any more and their value has decreased. To compensate, live shows are an increasing part of the value creation, and their price has increased tremendously (“In 1999, when Britney Spears ruled the airwaves, the music business took in around $10 billion in live-­music revenue internationally; in 2014, live music generated almost $30 billion in revenue“). And, in general, there are more professional musicians now than before, which shows that one way or the other, they get a share of the remaining value.

I definitely concur with the conclusion of the article: “I suspect the profound change lies at the boundaries of professionalism. It has never been easier to start making money from creative work, for your passion to undertake that critical leap from pure hobby to part-time income source. […] From the consumer’s perspective, blurring the boundaries has an obvious benefit: It widens the pool of potential talent. But it also has an important social merit. Widening the pool means that more people are earning income by doing what they love.”

Overall the Collaborative Age encourages expression and creates value and income for creators. The border between full-time and part-time professional is just blurring like in many other occupations.

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Why the Historical Trend of Interest Rates Should Be to Get Lower

Interest Rates represent our preference between a dollar today and a dollar in some time in the future. In effect, they represent our preference between now and later.

Real interest rates getting lower over long times: an illusion or a reality?
Real interest rates getting lower over long times: an illusion or a reality?

Because of the increased life expectancy and hence, capability to make plans for the future, the availability of future money should be less discounted than when we had short life expectancy and had to enjoy more the moment! We should thus observe that over time, the interest rates should decrease.

Of course, it is difficult to observe this trend with the high variability of the interest rates (real interest rates, i.e. interest rates minus inflation, should be considered here). Lately since the 1960’s it has decreased; and it is quite lower than the 5% per year without inflation that was enjoyed in the 19th century. It can be expected to rise again in the next few years, but probably not to very high levels.

I believe that it is possible that in the Collaborative Age we live with generally lower interest rates than the historical averages. Value will be created otherwise through creativity, but because we can plan for decades ahead on average, there will be a less steep discount of the future.

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How We Have Increased Dramatically our Feedback to all Services We Use

Following up on our post ‘How Social Ratings Determine Our Choices‘, let’s add how much more often we are asked to rate, and we do rate services.

Ratings have also been introduced for toilet service at Singapore airport!
Ratings have also been introduced for toilet service at Singapore airport!

I am amazed at how often I am prompted to give my feedback now. In all situations: when using a website or a service on internet; when visiting a hotel on the reservation platform; when downloading or using an app; when reading a book on my Kindle; and even when visiting the toilet at the airport!

And when we don’t do it consciously, the machine does infer some ratings: for example, how much and quick I read my book on Kindle certainly creates some rating in Amazon.

When we put this situation together with the fact that this forces the system to behave like a complex systems, reinforcing the popularity of the popular services and diminishing greatly the popularity to the others, we can see how our world is increasingly transforming in all spaces to a “winner takes all” situation, or that everything will be increasingly governed by the famous long tail distribution.

Welcome to the Collaborative Age!

By the way: how do you rate this post? 🙂

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How All Great New Truths Will Be Resisted Emotionally

All great truths begin as blasphemies” — is a widely quoted sentence written by George Bernard Shaw. The meaning of blasphemy here is of course, insult towards something considered sacred and inviolable – another truth.

all-great-truths-begin-as-blasphemiesThis quote is interesting because it creates a few problems by itself. It implies that a truth can only be relative or timely, because a new truth will necessarily replace an old truth (hence the blasphemy).

It also implies that the arising of a new truth will be resisted by society, which is certainly reasonable – and we observe every day when well established institutions defend themselves from changes occurring around them. The word ‘blasphemy’ however is very strong and implies an emotional reaction that is deep rooted in present beliefs. It is true that legal and public challenges by existing institutions sometimes border on modern blasphemy indictments.

In any case it serves to highlight that if you come up with a new truth you can expect to be strongly rejected by society, in an emotional manner, because you put in question the prevailing belief. You’ve been warned!

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How Solar Becomes an Energy Revolution

Right now, we are the witnesses of a very significant shift in energy production and consumption, at least when it comes to electrical power. New renewable forms of generation are becoming economically competitive, and power storage starts to be more realistic. And in addition, the trend is towards decentralized generation and storage.

solar-power price curveSolar energy, and in a more limited manner wind energy, are now becoming economically competitive even without subsidies. It is a real breakthrough – again, silicon and its exponential efficiency gains surprises us!

In Singapore for example, a country with a long standing non-subsidy energy policy, solar is now taken seriously as a substantial complementary power production source and the government is setting up an adequate framework to support financing and lease solutions for solar panels (so that consumers only pay for the power consumed but do not have to bear the upfront investment).

Elon Musk at Tesla is now unveiling home storage modules, and promote coupling with solutions for electrical based mobility. This paper in ParisTech Review summarizes well the vision that unfolds before our eyes: ‘How Elon Musk plans to transform two industries (and the 21st Century)‘. Of course we need to be fully aware that Tesla’s inroads currently relies a lot on heavy subsidies by the California state government, but it is quite possible that it may represent a future that is closer than we imagine.

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Why Competency Standards Become Institutions and Resist Change

Competency standards appear for good reasons – generally because there is a need to have a clear understanding on a minimum set of competencies to take certain roles, and to develop those competencies. This improves business results while increasing the efficiency of recruitment and the mobility of the workforce.

IndustryStandardsAt the same time, while competency standards always stem from a changing landscape in the roles that are needed in organizations, they inevitably create institutions will, by their very nature, resist change.

An excellent example happened in the field of Project Management. It was quite a new discipline and a new role in the 1960s and 70s. At that time a formalization exercise began which created associations of practitioners (e.g. in the US, the Project Management Institute (PMI)), corpus of competencies (e.g. the PMBOK of the PMI), and on top a certification process (e.g. Project Management Professional).

Right now it is a standard, and the association of practitioners becomes defensive at the idea that it might need to evolve. As the standard becomes dominant in the market it tends to shut down competition. And organizations are now supposed to use a corpus that is a minimum standard across industries and by no means what is really needed in more complex or larger projects in a specific industry.

Professional bodies actually are part of these institutions prone to be put in question by the changes happening in the world. As they defend a profession and thus the livelihood of their members, they will certainly wage significant resistance of any change, and the older they are, the more entrenched they will become.

The number of these professional bodies increases regularly, and this leads to the question of how they will be put in question. Will a revolution be needed? Or will the amount of information available about people’s professional path and experience overwhelm the need to have clear cut professional certificates?

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